No they haven't. One guy on stocktwits is just one guy making things up.
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everman
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I agree with this, and I'd like to briefly explain my hypothesis regarding Elon's approach to Model 3 production timeline.
I believe Elon Musk is approaching this product launch completely differently than any other launch. This is the culmination of the mission of the company, and will be taken more seriously than any of his previous launch planning and timelines combined.
I believe Elon Musk has been arranging chess pieces for the last five years with one goal in mind: that the narrative, experience and launch of the Model 3 is wrapped in nothing but success. Every part of the narrative will be exceeding every expectation.
With that overall goal in mind, and in terms of timeline, I FULLY expect the launch of the Model 3 to launch earlier than 'the end of 2017'. I also think his surprise at the order numbers is completely feigned. As Julian has mentioned in the past, plans have been in place for the 2016 road show, from which the remaining step stones to the 'exceed narrative' will materialize.
Be prepared for information to come out that describes these step stones, such as a factory in a much higher state of maturity, a Model 3 production-ready build article (along with all the 'Part 2' features like autonomy and additional UI tech) by late THIS year and many other step stones.
Elon is the master conductor, and the orchestra has just begun the first few bars of The Model 3 symphonic masterpiece.
There will be resentment for sure and that is one part of the risk going up. The sum total of risk will go up enormously, but they still have to go through it or die more slowly. I think the death can go quick even if they don't do anything. It is enough with a decline of mid to high single digit % and then a recession.
But just because you work in a ICE company does not mean you are against the EV revolution. Many people just landed there by chance. They probably also don't realize how hard it is to transform the company, so in a way I think some workers and engineers will be just like the customers "Why are you/we not doing a serious competing BEV when Tesla is?" and assume it won't affect their job security as much as it will. Also there will still be demand for ICE for a while, there is no EV truck and still no sub $35k car so the ICE line can still go on for a while so some engineers and workers in the company can still work with that.
There is also big auto in countries with less strong unions that won't have this problem. I think personally that GM and Ford are among those that will have it hardest partly because of the union as you point out.
I fully agree with the problem of changing core competence from mechanical engineering and ICE to electrical, chemical engineering and software. It is another huge one for the risk pile.
One thing that is interesting is that they are still doing dividends, even VW. I think this shows that that they both underestimate the problems that lies ahead and that they are too focused on the short term stock holders. Both of these are factors that points to passiveness.
Very large institutions without a center in direct control of its movement from the top will always respond slowly to changes in the environment. I don't worry about the ICE manufacturers. There are lots of things going on now, and simultaneously and reinforcing, driven by social media. That driver is probably underestimated by all of us. The M3 reservation frenzy is just one; the Trump and Bernie phenomenon is another. The difference between China's response to electrification and ours illustrates the centered top issue.
The same dinosaur issue will infect Tesla as well, but not for a long time. If we know Elon well he will probably be off building a railroad by then, I mean a hyperloop. Remember, he's behind a competition won by an MIT team for a demonstration hyperloop experiment to be conducted this summer. (I forget exactly what it was, but their entry used an unexpected hover effect or some such.)
276K is good number compared to last known 192K before Friday close, it's 43% leap although the hourly order rate keeps going down. So we'll see positve response on Monday. I guess SP will stand above 240. This might be the true reason the Q1 report gets delayed, EM just doesn't want two pieces of good news overlapped together.
Elon tweeted that it was 253k Saturday morning. I understand the point of staggering good news, but if delivery numbers aren't released by the end of the day today, they are not staying true to what they said they would do. Although it's true they didn't use the word "promise", Kruggerand
I think this talk of earlier than expected M3 is a bit over exuberant. Clearly Tesla has had a difficult time initiating production of previous models. You can't go from that to manufacturing master in a year. When has that ever been done? We will be lucky to see 10k M3 in q4 of 2017.
253k was known 23 hours ago. So that was an increase of 23k in approx 12 hours (yesterday morning - night ).
253k was known 23 hours ago. So that was an increase of 23k in approx 12 hours (yesterday morning - night ).
Krugerrand
Meow
Disagree. I think he's being sincere.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I suspect that the report for three days worth of reservations was delayed until today to clear up any inaccuracies such as unintentional double bookings. That may have made the number of Saturday reservations appear less than they actually were.
One anecdotum
here:After spending 3 1/2 hours in line for the Model 3 sign-up, I kept my (by then very delayed!) appointment with the Service Manager of one of the world's largest dealerships of the world's largest auto companies. Chit-chatting about this and that, I eventually revealed "You aren't going to be happy when you see what I drove up in."
He then saw the Model S and replied "Oh, a Tesla! Why did you say I wouldn't be happy?"
In my most politic of terms "Aah...well, the dealership situation and all..."
His trenchant response: "Bah. The whole industry needs to be shaken up."
In the world of auto dealers, this person is, if not a giant, still a Very Large Fish. I was quite taken.
Elon tweeted that it was 253k Saturday morning. I understand the point of staggering good news, but if delivery numbers aren't released by the end of the day today, they are not staying true to what they said they would do. Although it's true they didn't use the word "promise", Kruggerand
Kruggerand only talked about Elon's personal tweets. But 3 days from quarter end is TM's official statement, it must be promise
But we've already got a piece of good news today, so I'm ok to push the Q1 report by 1 day. Indeed.
Yet two more things are fair to say. They have been working and plotting on the Model 3 program in the background since prior to 2006 in preparation for the inevitable eventual appearance of a battery pack good enough to put in it - and they have been working on that too.
Secondly they did not spend the last two plus years and $3 billion on top of internally generated cash iterating the Model S into the Model X and posting a bunch of losses just to tool up and staff up for that. But if the objective was to stealth mode the Model 3 to readiness while competitors scoffed and did nothing sensible - that would have been the best possible conclusion to allow them to arrive at for the sake of doing nothing more than failing to correct them.
Honestly, any "competitor" who hasn't already refocused the whole company into BEV is likely to already be a dead company walking. They have a very short timeframe to refocuse to BEVs now. It's still *possible*, but I expect a wave of bankruptcies instead. Competitors who are focused on BEVs and doing a bad job at it have a lot more of a chance than the guys who still think that ICE will rule forever.
I agree with this.
I don't. I think he fully expected a good order book; he expected to sell out 2018 production by the end of this year. But I think he's been tamping down internal expectations in order to avoid risking the company through over-optimism. If orders stay up *this* high, he will need to build the European factory a couple of years before he planned to. As one person pointed out, the bull projections were 100K reservations in the day after the reveal -- instead there were 115K in the day before the reveal, and another 115K in the day after.
Yep, I figure he had all this lined up... but now he also has to build a European factory sooner than he intended to!
Nice problem to have.
I have offered more than my share of constructive criticism on several things EM/TM.......But I totally agree with Kruger here....I think the whole management team was SHOCKED by the numbers and IMO have a renewed focus on getting production started ASAP....hopefully as some have suggested....earlier than late 2017.
Not sure multiple upgrades are much more useful than one unbelievable one. Maybe a million on the first guidance upgrade.
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