Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[doctoxics]

You know, that's something I've been thinking of these last days. I would not be surprised if Tesla somehow surprises the world and delivers the first M3 vehicle earlier than expected, say in Q3 2017. No one is expecting this, not even in anyone's wildest dreams.

The main reasons would be because the M3 is probably much easier to produce and vol. produce than S and X but secondly Tesla might (unexpectedly) find themselves tapping into big piles of additional cash seeing the demand and speed up their own internal goals. Imagine Wall St. reaction if this were to happen.

I'm not trying to start any rumors or anything, just thinking out loud. And you heard it here first.

Good minds think alike, like you, me, Chickenlittle, and perhaps, others.

Giga factory opening soon also means model 3 will be in production earlier. I know it's tesla but they have more resources now than any prior time to devote to model 3. Just as no sense for giga to be late no sense to have giga ready early to production of model 3. Musk had already said earlier no new surprise features like falcon doors so no new engineering challenges either

Could we actually see Model 3 production start before Q4 of 2017? With the Gigafactory ahead of schedule and a clear deck after the X ramp, why not? Elon keeps repeating late 2017 for initial production, so we know that timeline appears doable. In order for Tesla to have a time margin for uncertainties, we will likely not know of an earlier production launch, should there be one, until we are almost there.

 

[MikeC]

This is great news:

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 At 12.25.49 PM

• MikeC
• Apr 3, 2016

 

[Runarbt]

Model 3 will have optional tow hitch!!

If i wasnt already sitting at the toilet, i would have peed in my pants when i read the tweet.:-O

 

[InTheShadows]

They have invited ppl to become beta testers..

April fools joke.

 

[Runarbt]

April fools joke.

I had a hunch. u certain?

 

[Drumheller]

253,000 reservations as of 7 am Saturday and now 276,000 as of 12 pm Saturday - likely to be over 300,000 by Monday am

I think you mean 11:59pm Saturday or 12am Sunday. Midnight is the first minute of the day. 12pm is noon.

 

[Papafox]

I had a hunch. u certain?

Definitely an April Fools joke. How many web-friendly individuals have we seen given a free copy of Model S or Model X to drive as a Beta test?

 

[Gerardf]

I agree that it is not impossible that we will all be surprised and will see the model-3 production earlier.

We have seen news that a paint shop capable of 500k / year is already installed. Not long ago news leaked that also stamping capability for 500k / year is already in place. Why invest in such a big upgrade this early ? A bit strange to already spend the money this early while Tesla still has no positive cashflow.

Maybe that was simply the only option available, and a stepped upgrade was not possible. If not, than it COULD mean they were already preparing for some surprise in case reservations were high.

Also the fact that GM has beaten him by bringing a 200 miles BEV to the market first might have "annoyed" Elon and motivated him to speed investements in Model-3 production up.

 

[Julian Cox]

This is great news:

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 At 12.25.49 PM

• MikeC
• Apr 3, 2016

Did he really just say that?

Not Photoshop, not a hacked Twitter account tweet?

OK so that is the explanation of inviting employees and existing customers to go first starting sometime basically around about now.

Note that just approximately fleet doubling every year would bring model S and model X combined US sales close to 200,000 units by the end of 2017 leaving no large numbers of anything to put in a model 3 ramp starting then and not now.

 

[BobSk]

Tonight Elon will update the reservation number again. It will be around 280,000, and keeps going up. Congratulations to those who reserved early. As I said, those who didn't reserve on day 1 will regret. They should reserve quickly, then ask questions.

Elon said by end of Saturday the number was at 276,000. I was off by 1.5%. I know everyone got pretty close on this number.
My prediction for first 24-hour "150~200k" was also close.
I will see how accurate is my other number - "above one million by year end". If Tesla didn't limit to 2 cars per person, we would have already passed the one million mark. If the goal is to make the most profit, Tesla should close the reservation at some point, use the rest of production to do the car sharing program.
We should pass 300,000 on Monday. Elon said will only update on Wednesday (the first week data). I doubt he can resist if the Monday number is very good. Those who don't reserve will regret.

 

[farzyness]

This is great news:

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 At 12.25.49 PM

• MikeC
• Apr 3, 2016

This must mean that they are planning on shipping well before end of 2017, no? S and X are going to eat pretty heavily into that 200k limit in 2016.

 

[hockeythug]

He is quite chatty today.

 

[neroden]

I don't think we'll see the first model 3 produced earlier.

Have you read The Mythical Man Month? There are things you *cannot speed up* -- development decisions, debugging, etc. I think the first Model 3 will come out exactly when they say it's going to, in late 2017. It's very important for them to release a *debugged* car.

The big change in plan is in the next stage *after* that. Once you've got the bugs corrected, as an engineer here said, there's no reason not to run the factory up to top speed immediately.

The old plan was to ramp up to 500,000 cars a year by 2020.
I think the new plan will be to open four Model 3 factories simultaneously, all going full blast, and produce 2 million cars a year by 2019. Probably 1.5 million in 2018, since construction delays will probably prevent the next three factories from getting to full speed until Q2 of 2018. I may be underestimating demand -- they may need to open six factories at once.

There are ways in which this simplifies the parts supply chain. The Euro factory only needs to produce Euro spec cars, the North American factory only needs to produce American spec cars. All the RHD cars can be produced at a single factory.

 

[Johan]

Thanks for that news MikeC. Either they're accelerating the schedule on M3 or he has inside info on the credit being extended

 

[Crowded Mind]

Is Elon implying that they would hold US deliveries at 199k so that they hit 200k in the beginning of a quarter and then have that full quarter and the next full quarter for the $7,500 tax credit, and 4 more quarters of 50% or 25%? I know we've speculated about this. I hope they are able to work out the international batching to make this happen.

 

[Julian Cox]

OMFG

The late 2017 launch is the bloody April. Fools Joke.

What time is it on Wall Street and in Dearbourn and Detroit and across Germany and in Osaka at 8:30 PM March 31st in California?

 

[neroden]

Is Elon implying that they would hold US deliveries at 199k so that they hit 200k in the beginning of a quarter and then have that full quarter and the next full quarter for the $7,500 tax credit, and 4 more quarters of 50% or 25%? I know we've speculated about this. I hope they are able to work out the international batching to make this happen.

As noted above, demand is now so high that international batching may not be so much of an issue. We'll see how much reservations slow down, but if they have 500K in *US* orders before the car starts being manufactured, I fully expect Tesla to build a European factory and produce all the European cars there.

 

[mrdoubleb]

OK, that makes it almost official. They will ship earlier even if it means speeding up GF buildout and thus spending more monez in 2016 than intended. There is a Bolt crying over this somewhere in a GM storage facility...

 

[Ulmo]

Is Elon implying that they would hold US deliveries at 199k so that they hit 200k in the beginning of a quarter and then have that full quarter and the next full quarter for the $7,500 tax credit, and 4 more quarters of 50% or 25%? I know we've speculated about this. I hope they are able to work out the international batching to make this happen.

Awesome! That's the implication, yes. I hope they don't run into any loopholes because they forgot to count some Roadsters or Mules or development cars or something. They should get it in writing from the feds and give a little buffer room for oopses ...

While I'm not generally in support of tax subsidies, a lot of the ICE market chain has had lots of subsidies, and they still get their subsidies for this tax credit that Tesla has been using if they ever get around to producing enough EV's to cash in on it, so Tesla's deft use of the subsidy to maximize their market entry would be a great idea. Hopefully after Tesla and the other manufacturers get good at producing EV's in large numbers, the subsidies can finally go away, and everyone can compete on an even playing field with ICE. I think customers will like electric more than ICE before 5 years from now, generally speaking. Of course there will be rude boys who have their unmuffled ICE raised pick up trucks. But on average I think most people will prefer electric.

 

[Rafael]

OK, that makes it almost official. They will ship earlier even if it means speeding up GF buildout and thus spending more monez in 2016 than intended. There is a Bolt crying over this somewhere in a GM storage facility...

I wouldn't count on it.