tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
How do you explain the Sunday January 3 release of delivery data then? Most certainly not three business days.
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How do you explain the Sunday January 3 release of delivery data then? Most certainly not three business days.
Analysts aren't supposed to have inside information (although they do get special factory tours and some other things like that). They put out statements all the time without a full understanding. And the risk of looking super silly has never held them back (for example, see John Lovallo, Trip Chowdhry, et al.)
The reason analysts would put out a new note now is that new information has come to light that forces them to update their models. They don't have to be "right", but they do need to correct what are now obviously flawed models that assume things like demand under 250k in 2020. Andrea is usually the quickest to understand things and she put her $500 PT upgrade out on Friday.
Interesting you say that...and of course I will oblige by not replying to you directly...no problem.
+ 1. I think those two are the most important catalysts in near term, of coure it'll come with capital raise. We do need some radical action from TM based on unprecedented M3 reservation number.
I take your point in the main, but will add that their notes are loaded with self interest. That alone could motivate a note when the trajectory of the company isn't so clear (i.e. what exactly to put in their model?)...sort of taking advantage of the uncertainty. But yes you are right...they don't worry about looking super silly.
So, I back down.
One explanation is the Q1 report is positive (meet or beat), so TM wants to not overlap it with good M3 news over the weekend, so it becomes more likely to be released after Monday close or before Tuesday open. If the Q1 report is bad (miss), I'm sure TM wants to release it after Friday close or over the weekend to let good M3 news overshadow it.
Krugerrand
Meow
It's not an error to trust the people you've hired to do a job, who would obviously be aware of the mission. That's on the dishonest people, not on Tesla.
Give me a break. Nobody in their right mind enjoys being a laughing stock. Especially not someone who was viciously bullied as a child, is 100% for mankind with unsurpassed passion, has risked everything and works as hard as this man.
The above is what 'YOU' think, it's not what Elon Musk thinks.
*yawn*
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ssq
Member
I have a curious question please - if the massive preorders are a result of pent up demand (take for instance many folks who could not afford the S and the X and have been longing to own one) + new demand from viral news coverage, tweets etc, is it sensible to increase production capacity ? In other words, what if a massive chunk of demand came in a huge spike across a week and then dies down very quickly to a somewhat predictable rate. One cannot assume demand is crazy high if such a queuing theory model were to occur, right ?
Disappointed for that. Elon can't "lie" right before 3.6 million followers on Tweeter. I hope he's waiting for 300K number before announcing by Sunday night.
Elon promised to tweet 3 day total tonight but didn't!
I put him on ignore list and life has been much better ever since.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Once you have Model 3s on the road, in show rooms, fully tested and reported by "car experts", the flood of reservations will exceed what we have seen so far. This is the best car that money can buy in the mid price range; think millions and not hundreds of thousands.
Another possibility to consider: he has good information in his hands, but stalls on its release to see where the market goes Monday, suck in a few shorts perhaps, and then release it at his moment of choosing (considering macro too) when he judges it will likely have the most positive effect.
The sheer beauty of reservation numbers as a tool, is that it is market manipulation without being illegal. This is just a CEO talking to his customers about the product they may want to reserve, and how long the line currently is.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Yet the self-interest on display in those analyst notes is more informative than the kind of off-the-wall speculation you can't seem to be able to refrain from posting.
There's an acute shortage of this kind of worry, apparently.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I can't. My apologies. Doh!
I found old threads on this discussion but nothing definitively clarifies it to three business days.
I think EM either release it tonight or skip it until next Wednesday (another promise?). We'll see Q1 report effect on Monday/Tuesday so it's better to avoid overshadowing each other.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Adding to your list.
- tooling
- suppliers (which have been a source of issue on a number of occasions to date)
Thank you. As a parting jesture I will say that while I disagree wholeheartedly with your methods of arriving at conclusions my greatest and only concern for Tesla at this point is that you may in essence have gotten it right and which is the only possible remaining move on the chessboard as I see it that could possibly result in snatching defeat from the jaws of a total victory.
This is Sun Tzu 101. Even if Elon raised a $trillion right now he cannot out-spend the sum of his enemies in a head-on confrontation. He must resort to outsmarting them - prick their bubble, cause them them to fall in their own swords, use their own weight against themselves - all the while cultivating the appearance of being no threat. One Gigafactory or two makes little to no difference to the outcome but aggravating a head on confrontation before a single Model 3 rolls off the line as opposed to lulling the enemy back to sleep in a haze of its own denial until tens of thousands rapidly followed by millions of them are - really could. This and nothing else.
It may also be the case that the cat is out of the bag and he's more ready for a fight than the enemy or any of his friends knew. That would mean that the last two years were the stealth mode and the guy is a genius squared.
That way you would be right for all the wrong reasons and that would be absolutely superb and the stock ought to go directly to $700+
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here is the link of delivery report date Tesla Delivers 10,030 Vehicles in Q1 of 2015 (NASDAQ:TSLA)
So TM should release it by end of today if they don't want to break their promise like Elon did yesterday.
So TM should release it by end of today if they don't want to break their promise like Elon did yesterday.
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