Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[austinEV]

Totally agree about the 1-2 punch, which is why I'm still long. It's just that I have more downside protection when the excitement wears off with the stock instead of ATM calls.

Quick note on your use of this word "Ferrari" to communicate something that is fast--- I am not familiar with that term. I think you mean to say Tesla Model S P90L right?

ATM calls are indeed a good thing to get out of today. My calls are of the boring deep-in-the-money variety.

 

[joseph7h]

Man I'm pumped! I don't know what Q1 holds, but if it hits the mark or even comes close may be approaching short squeeze territory.

32M shares are shorted as of 3/15 per Nasdaq. A short squeeze of this size will be eye popping.

 

[Causalien]

$250 was my neutral case fir the correct execution of the X ramp and getting their financials in order.

They got their financials in order, we are waiting for X execution, but these things no longer matter.

$270 was the price before the huge dissapppintment last quarter, we should notmalize back to that level. Then decided whether or not an event is bullish enough to pierce $300.

 

[tinm]

I'm guessing 15500-15900 deliveries at this point. Hope I'm way wrong.

 

[ssq]

Cha Ching!

Nice volume on today's move as well.

Did you sell? I am still holding on, glad I cancelled the limit order in the morning. There is scope to squeeze some more juice.

 

[Tenable]

I'm guessing 15500-15900 deliveries at this point. Hope I'm way wrong.

At 15500 I'm still very upbeat. A nominal miss while showing a significant X ramp still bodes well. Fingers crossed for at least 15.5, my brokerage accounts hope for more. ;-)

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Did you sell? I am still holding on, glad I cancelled the limit order in the morning. There is scope to squeeze some more juice.

I'm taking profit on the lottery play now. I reserve the right to reenter at any time...

Mike

EDIT: I hold more "core" holdings than I ever have...

EDIT Again: I agree, we could go much higher from here - I'm just not going to be in a position to monitor it closely and with short expiration time I need out.

 

[Hogfighter]

Quick note on your use of this word "Ferrari" to communicate something that is fast--- I am not familiar with that term. I think you mean to say Tesla Model S P90L right?

ATM calls are indeed a good thing to get out of today. My calls are of the boring deep-in-the-money variety.

I used the correct analogy....like a call option, a Ferrari can explode in your face!

 

[roblab]

I don't agree, especially with "often exaggerating its importance or benefits"
verb
verb: hype; 3rd person present: hypes; past tense: hyped; past participle: hyped; gerund or present participle: hyping
1.
promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.

From hyper: "above".

 

[mejojo]

I took a tiny sliver of profits and went in with 10 * 5/20 $300 @ $3 in the event of great ER.
If it doesn't come to pass, will never miss the $3K.

 

[ongba]

Quick note on your use of this word "Ferrari" to communicate something that is fast--- I am not familiar with that term. I think you mean to say Tesla Model S P90L right?

ATM calls are indeed a good thing to get out of today. My calls are of the boring deep-in-the-money variety.

Austin,

How deep in the money do you usually target (i.e. Delta) and are you in leaps (if so 17s or 18s)? TIA

 

[Tslynk67]

Until I threw a load of money into TSLA mid-February, I'd never realised quite how useful my Apple Watch would become! Highly recommended on days like to day and when you're stuck in meetings

 

[Tenable]

I took a tiny sliver of profits and went in with 10 * 5/20 $300 @ $3 in the event of great ER.
If it doesn't come to pass, will never miss the $3K.

I did the same thing only $300 calls at 5/6, Gamble gamble. ;-)

 

[sub]

I prefer ITM leaps, split the difference between high leverage/risk and stock. Mine are spread between 160-220 bought at different times over the last 6-8 months, the last was a 200 strike bought when it was OTM (stock was in 180's). I also have some sold ITM puts.

 

[Fallenone]

I crunched some numbers over the weekend to see what non-gaap eps for Q1 may be. Here are my assumptions and results

13500 Model S, ASP 100k, GM 25%
2720 Model X, ASP 135k, GM 15% (I think a lot of QC issues ate a lot GM)
100M ZEV credit from savings from 2015 Q4 and this quarter
Continuous trend of RND and SG&A spending, and interest/taxes
No Tesla Energy

With these assumptions, I got about -0.1 non-gaap eps for Q1. If I adjust GM for S to 20% and 10% for X, I got -0.47 eps.

 

[ongba]

I prefer ITM leaps, split the difference between high leverage/risk and stock. Mine are spread between 160-220 bought at different times over the last 6-8 months, the last was a 200 strike bought when it was OTM (stock was in 180's). I also have some sold ITM puts.

Thanks for your reply Sub. I currently have Jan 17 140 and 165 strikes with both approaching a delta of 1. Trying to gauge whether I should continue to hold them or roll to Jan 18s with lower delta (perhaps around .8)...

 

[austinEV]

Austin,

How deep in the money do you usually target (i.e. Delta) and are you in leaps (if so 17s or 18s)? TIA

I have 180 J17 (boring) and 210 June's (more risky). And a tiny April 8 200 (riskiest) that I wish I had bought more of.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

The 'Optimism Index' is pinging quite high right now. I like to load up when the Optimism Index is way low. In January, you couldn't find a positive article on TSLA. Now it's difficult to find a negative one (outside of SA, which I avoid like the plague).

This is a great indicator for me as well. Optimism is always sky high near the top and extremely low when near the bottom.

The last time I bought shares was when this article, Why Tesla Motors is the Worst Stock in the World, was posted. Up about 44% in 2 months since it was written.

 

[Tenable]

This is a great indicator for me as well. Optimism is always sky high near the top and extremely low when near the bottom.

The last time I bought shares was when this article, Why Tesla Motors is the Worst Stock in the World, was posted. Up about 44% in 2 months since it was written.

Speed, are you currently on the sidelines waiting for what you expect to be a significant drop / significantly better entry point? I'm very much a novice trader. I was under the impression that the 250 level is likely to be near the tipping point for a mass exodus of shorts. Is the consensus otherwise?

 

[ongba]

I have 180 J17 (boring) and 210 June's (more risky). And a tiny April 8 200 (riskiest) that I wish I had bought more of.

Thanks Austin....I've been burned in the past with holding leaps too close to expiration with aapl...don't want to repeat that lesson with Tsla so will likely roll out of Jan 17s into 18s no later than July expiration...