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ludicrousspeed
Member
The only advice I give when investing in Tesla is that it doesn't really matter when you enter as long as you have a seriously long-term view on the company. There will be a ton of price swings and weak longs will not profit from trading in the short-term. I'm in my early 20s and only hold TSLA in my Roth IRA, which is 100% TSLA at the moment, and I seriously have no intentions on selling unless there are serious and material changes to my long-term hypothesis.
Do as much research as you can on the company, its management, and the industry as a whole so that you can form a long-term thesis on Tesla. My thesis is that it will become one of the largest and most successful companies in the world as long as Musk is alive and the mission statement remains the same. If that's the case, buying in at $150 or $250 or $300 today won't make a huge difference.
chickensevil
Active Member
Geeze, can't a guy just be happy that his childhood dream is finally coming true? He IS human afterall. I go crazy to everyone I know when I achieve something I have been working on for a number of years. He is just doing the normal 21st century response to an amazing accomplishment... posting to Social Media.
I don't see anyone saying anything when Taylor Swift posts something to Twitter that she is trying to "hype the music industry"... Or when random people tweet that they got a new job, or whatever... Why does everything have to be a conspiracy here just because it is a public company and the guy happens to be the CEO of said company.
Since the SEC has approved twitter as an official source of information for public disclosures, he can do or say whatever he wants and it doesn't matter. Was there some "hidden agenda" when he tweeted that he did the ice bucket challenge with his kids? Or maybe there is a "hidden agenda" on his tweets about AI... watch out, cause this is really some secret plan to score Tesla some big monies!
We were all caught off guard by the response on this... even the most bullish of bulls didn't think we would hit these numbers. And assuming what Elon said is true, and I have no reason to think otherwise, they were expecting 1/4 to 1/2 this level of response.
So yeah, the guy is excited, people like to share things when they are excited... there doesn't have to be a hidden motive behind this.
Will they potentially capitalize on this to speed up the production? Well yeah, probably, unless they want a lot of angry customers waiting forever for their car. But you are assigning causality when the simpler details is likely the right details. Bet he was trying to "pump the stock" March 31st, 2013 when he posted to twitter about profits, too, right?
Looks like we quickly overran the trenches of the shorts at 240 and they've regrouped at 250 to try and hold us below that number until the Q1 delivery numbers come out. If those numbers are low, the shorts cheer because they've temporarily prevented a short squeeze. If the Q1 delivery numbers are good, the longs push through the resistance south of 250 and the march upward resumes.
jhm
Well-Known Member
One cowbell that needs to be wrung is this. Tesla will double their stores from 215 to 441 by end of 2017. This is in preparation for the Model 3, and the geographical distribution of reservations will factor into where stores will be built.
Expanding the footprint this way will also open up untapped markets for Models S and X. And sales of S/X will prepare those new markets for Model 3 uptake.
The three models are symbiotic and synergistic, not cannibalistic. Tesla will continue to grow sales of the Model S and X because of Model 3, and vice versa.
Expanding the footprint this way will also open up untapped markets for Models S and X. And sales of S/X will prepare those new markets for Model 3 uptake.
The three models are symbiotic and synergistic, not cannibalistic. Tesla will continue to grow sales of the Model S and X because of Model 3, and vice versa.
re: Shorts
A small interjection here to consider when you're divining short activity.
To the extent that shares are available to borrow, then there can be a constant interjection of new short investors as others cover in order to lick their wounds or to take long walks over short parapets. The overall short interest numbers, then, not only may not provide the whole picture but, more importantly, can ease the Big Picture short situation, in that earlier Short X may have covered his loss and is out, only to be replaced by eager new Short Y who comes in at some higher stock price number....
And as you lather, rinse and repeat the frustrating new situation looks the same to those on the sidelines: "Why in tarnation don't they all roll over and go away?"
The answer is because, on an individual level, they are. But the whack-a-mole continues.
A small interjection here to consider when you're divining short activity.
To the extent that shares are available to borrow, then there can be a constant interjection of new short investors as others cover in order to lick their wounds or to take long walks over short parapets. The overall short interest numbers, then, not only may not provide the whole picture but, more importantly, can ease the Big Picture short situation, in that earlier Short X may have covered his loss and is out, only to be replaced by eager new Short Y who comes in at some higher stock price number....
And as you lather, rinse and repeat the frustrating new situation looks the same to those on the sidelines: "Why in tarnation don't they all roll over and go away?"
The answer is because, on an individual level, they are. But the whack-a-mole continues.
chickensevil
Active Member
This is great, except you should probably drop the RND side as they specifically said that the bulk of this spending should be done as of Q4 until they get later in the year. I would also expect SG&A to flatten out a bit (not the percentage increases we had been seeing) as Q1 was seemingly a slow quarter on expansions.
Low Q1 delivery number will be shorts' last hope short term to cover. Long term they have all kinds of reasons saying extreme high number of orders doesn't matter as Tesla never able to deliver on time what it's promised. But if tesla can get it right (they probably will as so much were learned on S/X ramp), shorts are screwed in a big way!
So if Q1 delivery number is out today and good, IMHO some squeezing will happen immediately after it!
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mmd
Active Member
What GM did you assume for the China sales? IMO, the margins on those won't be good.
China Market situation and outlook
I agree. Also on the SG&A part they may not have spent as much as I assumed (lower than usual activities on SC, not sure about number of stores though). But I want to be conservative on OpEx side since I personally is not very optimistic on 25% GM for S and 15% GM for X (hence the alternative 20% and 10%). Trying to balance things out a bit.
Indeed. Healthy way to think about TSLA short interest is that this is the Jackpot pool.
The lottery can keep on paying out minor prizes for a long while and that pool can keep getting bigger. Ideal situation is 30 to 40 million short at $300 - $400+ before it pays out. The object is not to miss the payout which could happen at any time the trend is up with good news inbound. Like now while we look to Q1 numbers.
The only real downside to the shorts is the propensity to lie to suppress stock sentiment - occasionally they are one and the same as people who cheat too for example by holding a few shares to dump on the market in the hope that weak longs follow suit. Other than that, they pay rent to the longs for borrowing stock and they add demand pressure for the stock which actually increases the SP at levels of saturation like this - and as prevously alluded to, any time they can't pay the rent or panic that they can't they get evicted and you get a windfall.
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Agree with this post. But buying at $150 will give you twice the profit compared with buying at $300. The difference could be 20 million vs. 10 million in 10 years. Some of my smaller accounts were loaded 100% in TSLA and I haven't checked for years. Now I can't remember my passwords on those accounts.
I think a great approach is keep earning money, keep adding the stock. The lower the entry price the better. Don't wait for another huge dip, it may not happen.
chickensevil
Active Member
Keep in mind that for them to feel immediate pain you need the stock to rise by a substantial percentage (not so much a dollar amount, but percentage). While 12$ looks great for most of us, to hit the shorts, you need it to break around 10%. This puts all shorts not just underwater, but in IMMEDIATE margin call territory. This is because when you break above a certain amount, your cash on reserve is no longer high enough to cover the line of credit that you are sitting on now. This is the equivalent of you having a 5,000$ credit limit and you originally spent 1,000$ on something nice, and then turned the card over to your wife and she went on a shopping spree and maxed out the card. Your credit card company comes knocking asking for you to make good on your 5,000 or provide them something for collateral to up the limit further. So you can either:
A: Pay the company some of what you owe (Sell out of your short position)
B: Give them collateral to increase your limit (Basically put more cash in the brokerage)
It's not a perfect analogy, but it should hopefully help sorta explain what is happening. This isn't to say that there aren't always people hitting their numbers and being forced to cover. But to get a margin call in the middle of the day (as opposed to getting the chance to clear it over night or later down the road), requires a sharp move to put all shorts deep into the red. This then causes a cascading effect where people are forced to keep rebuying their short position as shares become scarce, or buy back the shares to just close out the position which in turn removes shares from the playing field.
dc_h
Active Member
Have to think Model X count and Model 3 tidal wave created some tracking issues. I am a bit worried about deliveries and being late on reporting and not wanting to dilute the good news. The issue may just be sales sites being overwhelmed. They also may have lost some deliveries due to the lines, so I would expect at least a few sales lost due the the reveal.
They should also worry about Wednesday's model 3 reservation number, then the second quarter sales - it's going to blow everyone's mind, at least that's the plan for now.
chickensevil
Active Member
This was in response more toward the playing the short term game vs the long term game. If you are trying to play the short term game then yeah, you want to time it, but trying to time something for long term it is pretty futile. You should just buy when you think it is a good entry point and forget about until you feel like something has changed in the company.
In that sense, you would have bought when it was 150 earlier and assuming you had the capital available to make that investment. If you have the capital today, and you are "holding out" on the chance for it to go back to 150 so you can get a better entry, then that is likely to be a fools game and you are just as likely to feel forced to buy at 300 when you should really just be buying now. This is why for long term investing you should dollar cost average (as you get the funds add them, rather than holding out for one big purchase) and then you just wait it out... potentially continuing to add as you get more funds.
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