Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

Just while thumb twiddling waiting for the breakout.

Does everyone here appreciate that for example Intel was founded by the inventors of the integrated circuit (electronic chip). Every competitor in the market they entered could only offer their customers individual transistors to solder onto a circuit board.

Or for example General Electric started out life as Edison General Electric - As in Thomas Edison. Before that there were no electric companies for lack of inventing the stuff for such a company to sell. Mostly gas lamp, candle companies and steam driven equipment companies.

I think the first company to seize on the invention of a battery capable of driving cars better than a 4 stroke engine not to mention fully integrating such a car with computers, software and the Internet is looking promising. I just got a trading alert that stocks of companies concentrated in internal combustion engine technology are tanking.

A couple of companies that seized on the early stages of a disruptive technology namely Bell Telephone and Standard Oil got so huge and so dominant that they became monopolies. Exxon-Mobil, the worlds highest market cap public traded company before Apple overtook it is just a fragment of Rokerfeller's Standard Oil.

 

[Johan]

Chowdhry really needs to quit smoking whatever it is he's smoking. Tesla has booked $0 in Model 3 orders. Even if reservations were orders, the $42k/vehicle ASP is just a WAG. He does Tesla fans a disservice by consistently spouting pie-in-the-sky nonsense. What Tesla achieved last week is impressive enough without distorting it into something it is not.

Agreed 100%. When he smokes what he smokes he gets the munchies and cooks up a big bowl of claim chowder.

What I don't get is why he gets to ask questions on the conference calls. Heck a bunch of us here at TMC could just put $100 each in to an LLC; "TMC Analytics", write a report and publicize and ask for a spot on the CC. I'm sure our representative would ask the best question(s).

 

[BobSk]

Or it can be simpler. Their phones are ringing off the hook about deals. Elon probably put the accounting department on the phone.

It's not the numbers. It was the physical lineup that proves the numbers are true. The power wall had a big nimber, but it was easy to brush away because "it's not real customers."

The powerwall interest was only email numbers, no credit cards. Model 3 reservation needs $1000, and it's limited to 2 per person. This demand is very real.

 

[FredTMC]

Off topic: On this new TMC site, how does it notify you of "new" posts in this thread. I just keep having to refresh the page. Ick.

 

[BobSk]

Very large order went through at10:30AM

Most likely computer controlled technical trading.

 

[gene]

True, all the ICE manufacturers are decidedly down today.

 

[tanner]

Just while thumb twiddling waiting for the breakout.

Does everyone here appreciate that for example Intel was founded by the inventors of the integrated circuit (electronic chip). Every competitor in the market they entered could only offer their customers individual transistors to solder onto a circuit board.

Or for example General Electric started out life as Edison General Electric - As in Thomas Edison. Before that there were no electric companies for lack of inventing the stuff for such a company to sell. Mostly gas lamp, candle companies and steam driven equipment companies.

I think the first company to seize on the invention of a battery capable of driving cars better than a 4 stroke engine not to mention fully integrating such a car with computers, software and the Internet is looking promising. I just got a trading alert that stocks of companies concentrated in internal combustion engine technology are tanking.

Well yeah... I don't think anyone is denying that Tesla is a trailblazer in the industry. Not only were/are they 5-10 years ahead of competition, but they continue to innovate and take their products to new heights. Not all companies/industry leaders can say that - look at the world of mobile tech for example. While I LOVE my iPhone, iPad, etc., all mobile tech revisions/new products (including from competitors) are becoming stale and stagnant. It's not so much about innovation as it is evolution for them (the same can be said for everyone else in the auto industry) - that's what sets Tesla apart, they're an innovator in their field.

 

[hockeythug]

Off topic: On this new TMC site, how does it notify you of "new" posts in this thread. I just keep having to refresh the page. Ick.

You can "watch" the thread and turn on notifications for "Replies to a watched thread". Hover over the alarm bell in the top right and click alert preferences.

 

[joseph7h]

That's one possibility... Unless they didn't want it to be overshadowed by the M3 news and wanted to stretch the good news cycle out.

Musk said last conference call that winning should be felt like winning, thus 16k supposed to be conservative or he lost some credibility ONCE AGAIN.

 

[sunhelm]

Agreed 100%. ... cooks up a big bowl of claim chowder

So essentially a bowl of tripn' chowdry?

 

[theschnell]

I very much expect a beat on quarterly deliveries. Maybe not a big one, but a beat, and higher than expected X deliveries. Clearly I could be wrong, but the reason I expect it is how upbeat Elon is. If it was a miss, I think he would still be upbeat but less so. I feel he is signalling to us long-time holders to buy while the buying is good.

Obviously I could be wrong, and I will be fine if I am wrong, but I am positioned for a beat.

 

[Electrifying]

I expect a beat around 18000 deliveries. I think they sold probably 5000 cars alone in China in Q1.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Just speculation, but my opinion is that the delivery numbers are a slight miss. Otherwise, they would have just released the numbers and added onto all of the positive momentum. Instead, they are clearly trying to point everybody's attention towards M3 hype, which was well justified at first, but we're now 4 days away from the event.

Personally, I'd be okay with a delivery miss because the stock would probably fall a bit, but the long-term story of the company would remain intact, allowing me to buy in at lower prices. Musk's clear efforts to hype up the company (and the stock), along with their ambitious expansion plans relating to the M3, superchargers, and service network, clearly show a capital raise in the near future. They aren't going to want to do a capital raise anywhere near the $242 mark so the time is now if you're trying to buy for a long-term holding period.

 

[tanner]

I very much expect a beat on quarterly deliveries. Maybe not a big one, but a beat, and higher than expected X deliveries. Clearly I could be wrong, but the reason I expect it is how upbeat Elon is. If it was a miss, I think he would still be upbeat but less so. I feel he is signalling to us long-time holders to buy while the buying is good.

Obviously I could be wrong, and I will be fine if I am wrong, but I am positioned for a beat.

I expect a beat around 18000 deliveries. I think they sold probably 5000 cars alone in China in Q1.

I'm hoping for 17,500 total.

 

[FredTMC]

You can "watch" the thread and turn on notifications for "Replies to a watched thread". Hover over the alarm bell in the top right and click alert preferences.

Yeah, I have those set. Thx

I guess what I was really hoping for is link at bottom of the short-term stock price thread that says "3 unread messages". Once you click it, it just adds those three new ones to the bottom of the thread. No muss, no fuss.

 

[esk8mw]

Just speculation, but my opinion is that the delivery numbers are a slight miss. Otherwise, they would have just released the numbers and added onto all of the positive momentum. Instead, they are clearly trying to point everybody's attention towards M3 hype, which was well justified at first, but we're now 4 days away from the event.

Personally, I'd be okay with a delivery miss because the stock would probably fall a bit, but the long-term story of the company would remain intact, allowing me to buy in at lower prices. Musk's clear efforts to hype up the company (and the stock), along with their ambitious expansion plans relating to the M3, superchargers, and service network, clearly show a capital raise in the near future. They aren't going to want to do a capital raise anywhere near the $242 mark so the time is now if you're trying to buy for a long-term holding period.

I'm of the opinion that it is generally better to space out positive news when there's a tsunami of good news and no bad news. Similarly, it's better to release bad news with good news, esp. when you are a highly shorted stock and doubly especially when it can be done on a Friday.

My optimistic view is that he wanted to spend the weekend pumping M3 numbers, let the numbers digest during Monday trading, then release solid deliveries after market Monday to keep the good times rolling and to keep the "but now cannibalization!" message at bay.

 

[theschnell]

Just speculation, but my opinion is that the delivery numbers are a slight miss. Otherwise, they would have just released the numbers and added onto all of the positive momentum. Instead, they are clearly trying to point everybody's attention towards M3 hype, which was well justified at first, but we're now 4 days away from the event.

Personally, I'd be okay with a delivery miss because the stock would probably fall a bit, but the long-term story of the company would remain intact, allowing me to buy in at lower prices. Musk's clear efforts to hype up the company (and the stock), along with their ambitious expansion plans relating to the M3, superchargers, and service network, clearly show a capital raise in the near future. They aren't going to want to do a capital raise anywhere near the $242 mark so the time is now if you're trying to buy for a long-term holding period.

I don't believe Elon hypes. He just tells it how it is. If things are good, he signals that by generally being very positive.

They are waiting, if they are strategically waiting at all and not just slammed, they are waiting to spread out the good news. They will probably release after close today so it can be digested with the market closed, and acted on tomorrow.

 

[tanner]

I'm of the opinion that it is generally better to space out positive news when there's a tsunami of good news and no bad news. Similarly, it's better to release bad news with good news, esp. when you are a highly shorted stock and doubly especially when it can be done on a Friday.

My optimistic view is that he wanted to spend the weekend pumping M3 numbers, let the numbers digest during Monday trading, then release solid deliveries after market Monday to keep the good times rolling and to keep the "but now cannibalization!" message at bay.

Exactly my thoughts. Only thing is that won't "keep the 'but now cannibalization!' message at bay" simply because those orders were placed long before M3 reservations were a thing. We need Q2 reports to prove/disprove that.

 

[tanner]

I don't believe Elon hypes. He just tells it how it is. If things are good, he signals that by generally being very positive.

They are waiting, if they are strategically waiting at all and not just slammed, they are waiting to spread out the good news. They will probably release after close today so it can be digested with the market closed, and acted on tomorrow.

True, but he'll talk more when it's good than when it's bad (unless he's trying to pull a 180/flip something).

 

[theschnell]

The situation right now is that Tesla has all these reservations, but there is still some question of execution, for sure if you're short, but also if you're on the fence. If they beat, with a high MX number especially, then they are successfully building the most difficult car to build ever. I think that will cause a significant rise in SP if true.

Then the bull narrative is, if Tesla can build the MX, M3 will be no problem...