I sold shares today based on nice 8.5% gain. Looking for the entry point again which is highly dependent on Q1 sales numbers. So far, TSLA is showing great strength to stay above $250 which is impressive. I still see nothing wrong with taking profits.
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My guess: they've decided to wait for market close to release delivery numbers. So we'll have one more exciting night before the next stage ignites.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
All true points. The reason I track short interest is because it would be difficult for new shorts to enter the ring without the existing shorts exiting. In other words, the 'tug-of-war' that is occurring will swing towards the longs when the shorts run out of ammo (in the form of higher borrowing rates).
I learned this when I shorted GPRO at 70, only to pay astronomical rates to do so. I lost money on that trade, even though I was correct.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree with this assesment. I didn't sell shares but I did exit all my remaining calls (now all ITM) as we stayed above. I'm aiming for a slight delivery miss here and a re-entry below $240 or even $230. I may be completely wrong on this, and I won't be too mad if I am, just trying to trade this thing to the best of my abilities.
Wow we are starting to take it on faith that the Q1 deliveries will be a beat. Let's keep perspective, meeting 16k or a slight miss of a few hundred is probably ok given that the X production is smoothing out.
Electrifying
Member
Capitulation from the shorts I haven't seen. We need some Bazookas to destroy their new 250 defense line.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Just to comment on this a bit: I take it your general idea here is that the lottery you are playing is whether the current uptrend can be extended thanks to a Q1 delivery beat? Now, we just had a great move up thanks to Model 3 reveal and reservation extravaganza. In reality, what does that have to do with production and deliveries in the first quarter of 2016 (that ended on March 31st)? What I mean is let's not let recent M3 related events influence our assesment of Q1 deliveries. I personally have seen not particular strongs signs that there were more than 16.000 deliveries and my feeling is that the relative delay in announcing the number isn't in it self a positive sign.
RationalOptimist
Member
How sure are we they'll announce this eve? Don't they have till tomorrow in theory? With Elon committed to saying something Weds about 1 week pre-orders, they might opt for Tues/Weds double-play? Or, if a miss, seek to minimize damage that way. Pretty clear to me that Elon is angling for cap raise, and prob pondering how to trigger short squeeze. Normally it's right to disregard the stock price, but when 300k+ people are screaming at you for a world-changing car, and you have to raise more $$$ to build them, it's right NOT to disregard it.
I just have a feeling they will beat. I could be completely wrong. These are quite literally way out of the money calls. I have made money on these selling Friday morning, buying Friday afternoon, and selling this morning. If I am wrong and they go to zero, I will be slightly below break even, but will have learned a ton in the process.
On the other hand, if a true short-squeeze gets rolling this week, I will be a great position to capitalize...
What we have seen so far is not much of a short squeeze in my opinion. Maybe some risk off by some shorts, but not a squeeze.
I realize a squeeze may not happen this week under any circumstances, but I have recently been rewarded with these options, so I am not ready to stop using them.
I think a beat signals to the market that Tesla has got its execution in order. And I think the market is paying more attention to Tesla now then normal, so a beat will have a greater effect.
All of this could be wrong. Everyone should assess their own risk tolerance and invest accordingly.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If you have made money, regardless of if you made it from recent option trades or by working overtime at your job it's basically money in hand. There is no inherent reason to think the way you do i.e. just because this is money you recently (and in a way "easily") got in to you should be more comfortable putting it on the line. One can't argue with "a feeling" but it's important to ask oneself if that feeling is influenced a lot by recent positive feelings toward TSLA, that in itself doesn't have to do with Q1 deliveries.
This is true, but I fail to see what's so special about this week? It's not like Q1 deliveries is going to make or break Tesla. The 3 announcement and reservation numbers was much, much bigger news, and has already to a large extent been "priced in".
This is true and a good observation. It could go both ways though - if there is a miss or beat you'll get relatively more punished. Right now the TSLA bow is pretty tightly strung. If you take a more neutral stance to this situation it makes most sense to be an option seller and not buyer (high intrinsic volatility).
11.1M shares traded so far - this is gonna be a big volume green candle day.
I am neutral on the Q1 number. I have to say the Q1 beat or miss really doesn't mean much, as long as the X ramp up is smooth, the Q2 number will be very big.
could be* Let's hope they are. There will undoubtedly be some whiplash and reports suggesting product cannibalism with the 3, but ultimately I feel like it will generate enough positive buzz that it will boost X and S sales in the longterm.
I'll admit I am probably being a bit emotional here rather than rational. What I think it comes down to is that I expected a bigger rise in SP based on the level of short interest and the good news so far. I am hoping Q1 numbers are a catalyst for another move higher. The options I am buying are so cheap, not from an intrinsic value perspective, but from a cash outlay perspective, that it is worth the risk for me to be exposed to a possible squeeze vs the amount I risk losing. Once I loose, which I probably will soon, I will stop. But can't stop while winning... I feel like I haven't "won" to be honest. I feel like I've just avoided losses. I am looking for a big win due to a squeeze, or break even if no squeeze occurs...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Good luck! But what you are doing is more gambling than investing/trading. I'm glad you realize it yourself
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