Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Cattledog]

... was it named P90 by any chance?

Oh, you can get just about any battery size you want if you shop by chip monikers!
Nvidia Tesla - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[ssq]

**Nudge nudge** back to thread topic: what are the predictions for tomorrow? I kept on trying to catch a lowball after-hours limit order ($240-$245/$251) but no luck. On one hand I want back into the action asap and one the other I believe there may be an opportunity at lower than current price sometime between now and immediately post ER. Thoughts?
disclaimer: I am a newbie, but I do try my best to learn and follow as much Tesla info as I possibly can.

 

[MartinAustin]

Currently $257.45 in AH trading. Nearly a dollar higher than the daily high. Only $37 below the all-time-high!

This on a day when the market in general was down. To my amazement, all the negative effect of the deliveries shortfall was almost completely confined to extended hours trading periods.

It just goes to show that Tesla News can totally outpace macro effects, and by a large amount. Through January and February TSLA floated around with the market, and generally fell because of oil... on days where there was no real "Tesla News."

Now there is a mountain of Tesla News and, as the longs know, the Tesla News is usually good.

Anticipation for the 3, and confirmation of X ramping up, helped TSLA rally from the low $140's and this was capped by a blow-out Model 3 unveil.

Yesterday's press release illuminating the story behind the deliveries shortfall was critical. Whoever wrote it should be given a bonus. It played a large part in emasculating the expected bear attack.

For "hubris" I see the word No-one else has had to put so much into a car. (see review on www.thedrive.com) The phrasing "insufficient supplier capability validation" means someone (or a group) inside Tesla were unable to spot the fact that suppliers wouldn't be able to supply parts fast enough. The press release is a sort of public lashing for these folks. Perhaps someone got fired, hard to say. For it to end up in the wording of a press release is pretty big.

To the discussion about additional catalysts: also add "NHTSA crash tests of the Model X." Who knows when that will happen. The government didn't test the Model S until a year after it was first delivered... perhaps this points to October-ish for the Model X tests.

 

[Jack6591]

I am a true believer in environmentalism, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and Tesla's Master Plan. My judgement and financial decisions are most certainly clouded by beliefs. While I do my honest best to open my mind and consider divergent opinions, it seems to me the shorts are motivated by hate.

To those committed to tearing down Tesla and Elon Musk, I would like to understand what good do you hope to achieve? Is your end game solely financial gain? What are your values?

 

[tander]

Add the rest of the context, why take risk of loading a car up with gadgets.
Adding gadgets does not improve an EV . An Electric suv along the lines of model s would
Have been sufficiently impressive and sooner to market and cheaper to produce .
Hubris does not pay. A young company cannot afford expensive mistakes, and model
X Has been an expensive venture.

If we're adding context it's worth noting that part of the point of the X was to buy time to bridge the battery scaling gap needed to go from the s to the 3.

**Nudge nudge** back to thread topic: what are the predictions for tomorrow? I kept on trying to catch a lowball after-hours limit order ($240-$245/$251) but no luck. On one hand I want back into the action asap and one the other I believe there may be an opportunity at lower than current price sometime between now and immediately post ER. Thoughts?
disclaimer: I am a newbie, but I do try my best to learn and follow as much Tesla info as I possibly can.

It's about 10% away from the all time high right now, which is only a few more 3-4% days. If there aren't any big market drops or maybe even if there are a new high seems possible. I'll take a stab and say that the 3 reservations are over 400k by now which seems like it would be enough to kindle (I almost wrote earn) that 10% or more.

 

[AlMc]

@ssq: No idea on the price action tomorrow. I would bet a day of consolidation tomorrow but TSLA has surprised all of us, for better or worse, so who knows. While I am unlikely to buy any stock or options tomorrow I usually bet against what we have all called 'amateur hour'.

@Jack; nice to see you posting here again. No explanation for your question...

@Martin: There are many possible explanations for the supplier short fall. One could certainly be as you described...someone in TM messed up...an alternative explanation would be that the X was undergoing constant minor revisions (even after it was in production). So, if TM comes up with a 'hardware fix' for something and asks the supplier to send them '5,000 yesterday' then 'yes' the supplier could not supply 5,000 yesterday and that slowed the ramp. Supplier fault? TM fault? At this time it is a mute point....the ramp is now finally going well.

@tanner: I would not bet on ATH before Q2ER but that is a WAG on my part.

 

[tander]

I am a true believer in environmentalism, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and Tesla's Master Plan. My judgement and financial decisions are most certainly clouded by beliefs. While I do my honest best to open my mind and consider divergent opinions, it seems to me the shorts are motivated by hate.

To those committed to tearing down Tesla and Elon Musk, I would like to understand what good do you hope to achieve? Is your end game solely financial gain? What are your values?

1. Guessing that the long-term shorts are motivated by hating losing money, liking making money (Tsla has been a great short at times), and disliking being wrong or not understanding things, not a hate of the environment etc.
2. Also guessing that there are plenty of short-term shorts (probably many with long-term investments in Tsla at the same time) that have taken advantage of downturns in oil prices/market and hedged their own investments that way.
3. Also shorting is kind of a weird thing like rooting for a team to lose, but not necessarily a wholly bad thing, and a good short or long would have zero love or hate for Tsla or Musk. The silver-lining of the shorts for the longs (mostly the institutional longs) is that someone has to lend their shares in order for someone to short them, and the lenders get paid interest, so basically they own a high growth stock and get paid dividends thanks to the shorts.

 

[MikeL]

I'm tempted to change that license plate.
I wonder if HUBRIS is taken !?

 

[The Blue Owl]

I'm tempted to change that license plate.
I wonder if HUBRIS is taken !?

It is now.

 

[Fallenone]

Currently $257.45 in AH trading. Nearly a dollar higher than the daily high. Only $37 below the all-time-high!

This on a day when the market in general was down. To my amazement, all the negative effect of the deliveries shortfall was almost completely confined to extended hours trading periods.

It just goes to show that Tesla News can totally outpace macro effects, and by a large amount. Through January and February TSLA floated around with the market, and generally fell because of oil... on days where there was no real "Tesla News."

Now there is a mountain of Tesla News and, as the longs know, the Tesla News is usually good.

Anticipation for the 3, and confirmation of X ramping up, helped TSLA rally from the low $140's and this was capped by a blow-out Model 3 unveil.

Yesterday's press release illuminating the story behind the deliveries shortfall was critical. Whoever wrote it should be given a bonus. It played a large part in emasculating the expected bear attack.

For "hubris" I see the word No-one else has had to put so much into a car. (see review on www.thedrive.com) The phrasing "insufficient supplier capability validation" means someone (or a group) inside Tesla were unable to spot the fact that suppliers wouldn't be able to supply parts fast enough. The press release is a sort of public lashing for these folks. Perhaps someone got fired, hard to say. For it to end up in the wording of a press release is pretty big.

To the discussion about additional catalysts: also add "NHTSA crash tests of the Model X." Who knows when that will happen. The government didn't test the Model S until a year after it was first delivered... perhaps this points to October-ish for the Model X tests.

I agree. The press release was written very well. It clearly conveyed the message of Tesla admitting some fault on themselves and reassuring the market they won't be like that for the 3. This negates the doubt of "if Model X, after a number times of delays, still can't ramp for half a year, how could Model 3 be mass produced in 2018?". Then they said orders for Model S went up more than deliveries on a QoQ basis plus reaffirming whole year guidance, thus pointing out it wasn't demand that caused the miss, but production delays partly due to Model X ramp-up difficulties.

 

[MitchJi]

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week...

Not clear that Tesla can build these profitably in volume and quality yet. Remember, they were on an exponential ramp as of the 1/3/16 Tesla press release. Although apparently for Tesla growing from 238/week to 750/week in 3 months they consider an exponential ramp.

Apparently you don't understand the phrase "severe Model X supplier parts shortages" ?

 

[Intl Professor]

I agree. The press release was written very well. It clearly conveyed the message of Tesla admitting some fault on themselves and reassuring the market they won't be like that for the 3. This negates the doubt of "if Model X, after a number times of delays, still can't ramp for half a year, how could Model 3 be mass produced in 2018?". Then they said orders for Model S went up more than deliveries on a QoQ basis plus reaffirming whole year guidance, thus pointing out it wasn't demand that caused the miss, but production delays partly due to Model X ramp-up difficulties.

Some have criticized the admission but I think we are entering an era when public figures are always much better off telling the truth, even if its embarrassing. That may be why some think Trump and Sanders are onto something. The public is tired of public figures overly concerned about feigning omnipotence. Emperors....? The public is gullible, we all are, but we don't like being lied to and there is a lot of that going around.

Musk impresses me as an honest guy whose mind about business and vision are just way off the charts. I'm sure there are some who are technically much more competent. What worries me is he works too hard.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

If you don't trust EM and TSLA management I think you should stop investing in TSLA.

In any case please stop making posts implying that EM and TSLA management are liars. I regard EM and TSLA management as friends, and I find those posts offensive.

I really don't like this attitude, and I take offense at your post. I read it as bullying behavior, trying to discipline/get in line anyone straying form that line.

I'd prefer to have balanced discussion, and not a place for one-think. At least 95% of people here come because they love Tesla, but that doesn't preclude fair critique.

There are lots of shades between black and white, and I actually haven't seen anyone accuse Elon of lying. Being smart with the words, yes!

There, you said what you don't like, I said what I don't like, and world is much better place now, right? Or maybe couple other people want to tell us what they don't like?

 

[larmor]

I would interpret the hubris as saying, EM is making rockets, placing satellites, reusing boosters, and now to be done in by a window or door seal. Past CC mentioned how surprised at how difficult this item was...

 

[hoang51]

I think later today (Wednesday), TSLA will continue to rise in anticipation of a larger than expected Model 3 reservation total count released by Elon in the evening. Starting on March 31, 2016, the trading volume for TSLA has gone up. According to Google Finance on TSLA (historical prices):
03/29/2016: 4,004,940
03/30/2016: 4,019,667
03/31/3016: 7,956,740
04/01/2016: 15,962,015
04/04/2016: 13,289,584
04/05/2016: 9,948,699
Note that average trading volume is about 4 million shares a day.
For TSLA short interest according to NASDAQ on 03/15/2016: 32,226,674
I would expect for some of the shorts to have covered already, given the rise in share prices in the last few trading days. I think TSLA has more room to go up in the next few days, presuming that the updated Model 3 reservation count is released after the market closes, so the market have Wednesday to "cover" or get in on expected good news, Thursday to rise and celebrate given good count number. Friday, I don't know how it will go.

 

[Johan]

I would interpret the hubris as saying, EM is making rockets, placing satellites, reusing boosters, and now to be done in by a window or door seal. Past CC mentioned how surprised at how difficult this item was...

As counter-intuitive as it may seem, if you think about it it's like this: Admitting hubris [in the past] signals humility [in the present].

Of course some people and organisations do this over and over, or only when they get caught (for example politicians who, when caught in a lie, quickly "get ahead of the news" and admit their lie flat out, sometimes even with a strange element of pride in having admitted their lie) but with Tesla I get the other feeling: They say what others may have been thinking and, most importantly, they take responsibility and act accordingly:

Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

My reading of what they feel are the root causes are:
1. Too much new technology added at once (this is the hubris part) to a brand new car.
2. Insufficient supplier capability/ramp up verification (i.e. perhaps they took the supplier's word for their capability to deliver, but didn't go far enough to check this independently?)
3. Lacking capability to take manufacturing of parts in-house when supplier fails as per bullet point 2 above.

I think of it like this (not a perfect parallell situation, but close enough to convey my feelings on the subject): If another person does me wrong and apologizes I appreciate that, but if another person does me wrong and apologizes and then right after goes on to explain the steps they are taking to make sure it doesn't happen again I appreciate that way more.

 

[Larken]

Glowing review of the Model X from The Drive. It made me want to buy an X even though I don't even need a car!

Why The Tesla Model X Will Make You Want an American SUV

 

[Papafox]

Glowing review of the Model X from The Drive. It made me want to buy an X even though I don't even need a car!

Why The Tesla Model X Will Make You Want an American SUV

Wow, that writer is impressed and he can write!

Once some of the craziness over Model 3 dies down, the spotlight shifts back to X for a while. When Xs show up in Tesla stores and demos begin, we'll see a nice spike in orders.

 

[30seconds]

I think the valuation questions shift to an analysis of (cash flow from increasing deliveries vs. tsla able to get to guidance # of deliveries in 2016) vs. capital raise to accleerate Model 3 ramp.

We may be at a situation where the best thing for the company is to show Q2 breakeven cash and then do capital raise and go cash flow negative in rest of 2016.

It is very unlikely that the current sales / production ramp can fund the fastest expansion of the Model 3 ramp, but it may be helpful for the investors to see if the current P&L could support at least a modest Model 3 ramp.

Of course another solution is some sort of JV with a partner or government to fund a new Model 3 factory in EU.

 

[Tslynk67]

Now that's a big one: 04:47 $ 253 2,880