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Krugerrand
Meow
Nothing is bad news for reservation numbers. I mean I guess if they are under 325k the market will move down on the stock - maybe - but it still isn't bad news.
Ulmo
Active Member
Reading the M3 res tracker, I'm estimating (this is dc in Unix): 29 23 .8*+p981/p1+p276000*p
47.4
.04831804281345565749235474006116207951070336391437
1.04831804281345565749235474006116207951070336391437
289335.77981651376146788990825688073394495412844036612000
The 29 up there are recent res's since April 2, the 23 are N. America on April 2, and 981 is since inception. Last datapoint released mid-day April 2 (I assume Tesla time zone), thus the .8 (stores open for 2 hours before noon & people tend to do personal stuff after work online or in person). The res's decrease in frequency quickly after April 1, essentially zero now.
I think only the first two or so digits are even closish (29X,XXX) because we don't have a lot of windows into this. Someone felt strongly enough to tag this post with "dislike", causing me to think harder. Errors in this would be from:
* People who are new to Model 3 and don't know about TeslaMotorsClub.Com and the m3ti.
* Geeks like m3ti. Geeks get paid more. Geeks have more Model S/X. Geeks reserved earlier and posted more to m3ti.
So, the type of people who would buy a Model 3 might not want to deal with m3ti, might not know about it, and might act slower than geeks who register on m3ti. So, there's a heavy slant away from the trail-off of that data. This could encourage the results to be closer to the 300-450 range, I think much closer to the m3ti side of it. (My original rough guess considering non-geekiness was a 325-400 range.)
Final edit: ok, well, it was released. 325K. So the new reservers are less geeky. And my rough estimates for non-geekiness were initially too high and then slightly closer to the right amount. Seek and you shall find.
47.4
.04831804281345565749235474006116207951070336391437
1.04831804281345565749235474006116207951070336391437
289335.77981651376146788990825688073394495412844036612000
The 29 up there are recent res's since April 2, the 23 are N. America on April 2, and 981 is since inception. Last datapoint released mid-day April 2 (I assume Tesla time zone), thus the .8 (stores open for 2 hours before noon & people tend to do personal stuff after work online or in person). The res's decrease in frequency quickly after April 1, essentially zero now.
I think only the first two or so digits are even closish (29X,XXX) because we don't have a lot of windows into this. Someone felt strongly enough to tag this post with "dislike", causing me to think harder. Errors in this would be from:
* People who are new to Model 3 and don't know about TeslaMotorsClub.Com and the m3ti.
* Geeks like m3ti. Geeks get paid more. Geeks have more Model S/X. Geeks reserved earlier and posted more to m3ti.
So, the type of people who would buy a Model 3 might not want to deal with m3ti, might not know about it, and might act slower than geeks who register on m3ti. So, there's a heavy slant away from the trail-off of that data. This could encourage the results to be closer to the 300-450 range, I think much closer to the m3ti side of it. (My original rough guess considering non-geekiness was a 325-400 range.)
Final edit: ok, well, it was released. 325K. So the new reservers are less geeky. And my rough estimates for non-geekiness were initially too high and then slightly closer to the right amount. Seek and you shall find.
Last edited:
Norse
Active Member
You are right that Good Q2 delivered, on ~july 3 should be positive. And if we think that, then the price should be bid up in anticipation, so maybe mid June? But the market is impatient and that leaves a "hole" of financial news between now and then, roughly 10 weeks-- an eternity in stock market time. The Q1 ER in mid May should contain some neat guidance, and bulls will love it, but will anyone else? There are other minor items between now and then, the GF party, X reviews other bluebirds but nothing you can really count on. So if you are a long term holder you just shrug and ignore it. But if you are playing the predict the future game a minor pullback might be in the cards. Or, maybe EM wants to do the cap raise now to use those 10 weeks so he has buttons to push. But good financials, should the appear, are the sure thing.
To me the question mark is definitely the Q1 ER. The financials will be poor, they just have to be. If wheeler is smart he won't work too hard in making it look nicer than it is; that missing revenue really makes it impossible. But, that is arguably shrugged off and priced in by the magic efficient market fairy, who knows that the deliveries were a miss. So if the market is really all about the future suddenly then maybe notes about the GF, 3 development, X running smoothly etc will cause a rosy response. My first instinct is that it will not cause a big move up or down.
That's exactly how my investment started... Bought 50 shares last Monday at $231.50 thinking I'd determine how much I splurge on my Model 3 based on my success or failure on the market over the next 2 years. This was my first time ever buying stock. I've since spent a lot of time researching, including reading this thread, and I may hang onto the stock for the long haul instead.
I completely disagree. I think it's clear that Elon isn't all that fussed over acute punctuality, and I'd expect he's waiting simply so he can report the largest number possible for the first full which, which, it seems, he considers to end either at 10 AM EST or 10 AM PST. We'll find out soon enough, and I think most people will be pleasantly surprised with the results.
Not that I understand your post but I would think that anyone who enters information into the tracker would reserve early. The stragglers are the ones pulling out their phones in the hair salon and making the reservation.
InTheShadows
Active Member
For sure Elon is up. He's probably working on the details of the ISS supply mission right now. Then after stopping by to see the hyperloop team he will remember that he was going to tweet that Model 3 number this am.
No, it's quite early in CA right now. I am ~100% sure The number will come within a few hours. Also, because the reservation number is basically one way traffic (the cancellation should be near zero), the number will not disappoint most people. How will the stock react is a different mater.
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Moderator Note:
This is the short-term trading thread. There are lots of other subforms where too many of these conversations more appropriately belong. Do not use this as a catch-all site: there is too much valuable information both amongst from this sub-forum's participants as well as those who won't come near Investors' Sector without a double front-end lobotomy.
It should not be necessary to repeat notes like this, but apparently some of you keep getting carried away.
A number of posts here have disappeared - to emerge elsewhere; others need to be but it's quite challenging to do so, most especially before I've had my coffee....as you can see from that interesting sentence above that I'll leave for your amusement....
This is the short-term trading thread. There are lots of other subforms where too many of these conversations more appropriately belong. Do not use this as a catch-all site: there is too much valuable information both amongst from this sub-forum's participants as well as those who won't come near Investors' Sector without a double front-end lobotomy.
It should not be necessary to repeat notes like this, but apparently some of you keep getting carried away.
A number of posts here have disappeared - to emerge elsewhere; others need to be but it's quite challenging to do so, most especially before I've had my coffee....as you can see from that interesting sentence above that I'll leave for your amusement....
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Sorry, but I'm not going to cut Elon Musk that much slack. The man said he'd announce Wednesday night. Then, Wednesday night, instead of doing what he said he would do, he pushes the announcement to early in the morning Thursday. Once again, Elon overpromised and underdelivered. It's a behavior he keeps exhibiting. Wouldn't be surprised if his VPs of Communications (second only to Spinal Tap drummers for short-lived careers) point it out to him, resulting in their dismissal.
Ulmo
Active Member
325K Model 3 reservations per Twitter post just now 7:21AM Pacific:
Tesla Motors Verified account @TeslaMotors
A huge step towards a more sustainable future: 325,000 and counting http://ts.la/c8k #Model3
=================
Link above is to their blog:
The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream
The Tesla Team April 7, 2016
A week ago, we started taking reservations for Model 3, and the excitement has been incredible. We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever. This interest has spread completely organically. Unlike other major product launches, we haven’t advertised or paid for any endorsements. Instead, this has been a true grassroots effort driven by the passion of the Tesla team that’s worked so hard to get to this point and our current and future customers who believe so strongly in what we are trying to achieve. Most importantly, we are all taking a huge step towards a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.
We want to thank everyone who has shown their faith in Tesla and the mission of electric vehicles. We would write more, but we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!
Tesla Motors Verified account @TeslaMotors
A huge step towards a more sustainable future: 325,000 and counting http://ts.la/c8k #Model3
- Retweets 84
- Likes 139
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=================
Link above is to their blog:
The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream
The Tesla Team April 7, 2016
A week ago, we started taking reservations for Model 3, and the excitement has been incredible. We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever. This interest has spread completely organically. Unlike other major product launches, we haven’t advertised or paid for any endorsements. Instead, this has been a true grassroots effort driven by the passion of the Tesla team that’s worked so hard to get to this point and our current and future customers who believe so strongly in what we are trying to achieve. Most importantly, we are all taking a huge step towards a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.
We want to thank everyone who has shown their faith in Tesla and the mission of electric vehicles. We would write more, but we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!
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