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I am not seeing lots of 'gloom and doom' on this ST thread. A number of people here, including myself, are noting we have had an impressive run from the 140s to the 260s and that while we may reach ATHs with an unexpected, but possible, EM/TM announcement, that it is quite possible to have some consolidation in this range until Q1ER/CC.
Personally, this means take and celebrate any short term gains from short term trades (trading stock or options) and not expect the type of gains many of us have enjoyed recently over the next 3+ weeks.
If you have core stock/long term investor all this is 'noise' and over the next couple years you should see some nice gains.
Personally, this means take and celebrate any short term gains from short term trades (trading stock or options) and not expect the type of gains many of us have enjoyed recently over the next 3+ weeks.
If you have core stock/long term investor all this is 'noise' and over the next couple years you should see some nice gains.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The price fell from 220 to 150 in January due to absurdity. So the run has really gone from 220 to 260....hardly cataclysmic.
The 3 reservations number shot a massive hole in one of the most common bear arguments, which is lack of demand for EVs. That's going to give the SP added support.
Now we need clarity on Free Cash Flow. That crushes the other bear argument, that Tesla (a) loses money of each vehicle, and (b) will run out of cash in a year. We need to be FCF positive in order to crack 300, IMHO.
Oh, and the 3 will be produced in higher quantities than previously planned, but not released earlier than planned. Too much to do in a year and a half.
The 3 reservations number shot a massive hole in one of the most common bear arguments, which is lack of demand for EVs. That's going to give the SP added support.
Now we need clarity on Free Cash Flow. That crushes the other bear argument, that Tesla (a) loses money of each vehicle, and (b) will run out of cash in a year. We need to be FCF positive in order to crack 300, IMHO.
Oh, and the 3 will be produced in higher quantities than previously planned, but not released earlier than planned. Too much to do in a year and a half.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Mostly long term buyer but would like to trade a small portion of my shares (20%) as the volatility of this stock is to good to pass up.
So far I have bought equal amounts since last summer @ $262, $210 and $145. I tend to spread out my buying and selling. I am glad I did given the drop in the stock earlier this year. The $145 was pure luck as I am usually not good at timing things. I just thought the stock was down at that time mostly due to macro and the x issues would pass.
I have some cash.
So at what price should I try to pick up more if it does drop. My plan is to sell some of the above if it hits the $290-300 range.
So far I have bought equal amounts since last summer @ $262, $210 and $145. I tend to spread out my buying and selling. I am glad I did given the drop in the stock earlier this year. The $145 was pure luck as I am usually not good at timing things. I just thought the stock was down at that time mostly due to macro and the x issues would pass.
I have some cash.
So at what price should I try to pick up more if it does drop. My plan is to sell some of the above if it hits the $290-300 range.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I am personally waiting to see how the production expansion is goong to happen. I have a few guesses on how, but I want to see their plans first.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Do share. It's fun to see how close anyone here, or the forum collectively, can get to prediciting events. (Or tell me in a PM
)
Doom and gloom?
Isn't this the thread about short term stock movements?
If you are going to trade this stock, you need to be ready for it to retrace before going to new highs. You need to be ready for anything. That is healthy and normal.
I certainly won't admonish any long term bulls (I'm one of them), but there's also room to trade the ups and downs of the stock short term too. And there's time for caution (now, imo), and there's time to bet against the stock (not me! Not now!)
For those that follow it: Max Pain is 250. Very little difference though between 245 and 255.
If today is a low volume day I would suspect there may be some pressure to find $255
This is NOT a prediction...just an observation
If today is a low volume day I would suspect there may be some pressure to find $255
This is NOT a prediction...just an observation
Is it possible it could go the other way too?For those that follow it: Max Pain is 250. Very little difference though between 245 and 255.
If today is a low volume day I would suspect there may be some pressure to find $255
This is NOT a prediction...just an observation
Tanner: Max Pain is s point in option trading where the market makers make the most amount of money when an option expires. The thought is that they like to manipulate the price, when possible, to this level.
Personally, it is just One piece of information I look at when considering an option purchase.
Here is a link:
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
RAM_Eh
Member
After letting a bunch of OTM March calls expire worthless - took a shot at an earlier runup to Model 3, I've just exited my April and June calls that were both ITM and OTM, getting 2x to 6x returns. Holding all shares since late 2012/early 2013. Will look for a a reentry in calls over the next couple months ahead of Gigafactory/Big Q2 Guidance in May and blowout Q2 delivery announcement on July 4th (guessing, would be cool). Might be back in as early as next week.
Thank you! I'm still (mostly) a noob when it comes to trading, learning more every day
Note a joke: Maybe we should make an ultra-short term traders thread where people can discuss what people think for the next hour or two. I know if I were a day trader I would appreciate that. And it would provide a place for some of the very short term focus folks who have joined. Nothing wrong with having a different time horizon.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Oil looks to be headed north of $40/b. I'm looking to lock in more SCO as an oil hedge for Tesla when oil hits $41.25 or stalls.
In my view, one of the biggest risks to Tesla SP short term is simply that oil will return to $30/b. Oil is getting hyped up right now, but the OPEC meeting in the middle of April will likely be a wet blanket. So with Tesla's bull run taking a breather, an oil crash can easily take it down. So you can weave and dodge trading Tesla, or short oil to hedge specific risk around oil hype.
In my view, one of the biggest risks to Tesla SP short term is simply that oil will return to $30/b. Oil is getting hyped up right now, but the OPEC meeting in the middle of April will likely be a wet blanket. So with Tesla's bull run taking a breather, an oil crash can easily take it down. So you can weave and dodge trading Tesla, or short oil to hedge specific risk around oil hype.
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