Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Apple effect should have no short term consequences, other than a short knee jerk reaction. Any plans would take years to come to market in any consequential form and will be well telegraphed merely due to the immense manufacturing infrastructure that would be required.

I do wonder about Doha this weekend. That's why I pre-maturely dove to the sidelines, although I do hold some shorter term protective puts and a June call position that is well in the money. I would not be surprised to see a bear attack before the ER and other possible catalysts. I also feel like the market has had a good run.

It would be nice for TSLA to really decouple from oil, but given the probably lack of other news, TSLA will probably trade largely with oil and NASDAQ next week.

What is playing out is the consequences of the Model X ramp. I do wonder what kind of overhang of Model X's there were from Q1 and what that means for Q2. The ER will help to shed some light, but that could easily also be misconstrued.

Hey, when is Earnings. Early May?

Very much looking forward to analyst upgrades (yes, 'upgrades').

Andrea James already chipped in but Dougherty carries little weight. When (not if) Adam Jonas MorganStanley raises PT should carry weight. He should writes a novel about the bull-case and Uber-like service he put in Elons ear (ha).

 

[tanner]

Sarcasm, we can be a bit dry in the midwest, so sorry if it was not noted. You specifically asked about short term pricing, one of the few references to pricing all day. It was my "nice" way to encourage more discussions specific to the stock price.

Ah... Okay, sorry, it's a bit hard to decipher tone over text/forums

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Like Elon has always said, the more EVs on the market, the better it is for Tesla. I would rather Tesla compete with other EVs than ICEs at this point and switch the public's perception of what a car runs on. However, no matter how much cash Apple has, it's useful to keep in mind that Tesla is the first successful American car start up in about 70 years so they have a lot to prove.

 

[geneclean55]

I still think we are headed rangebound to the goal posts I posted earlier, with a more exact target of yesterday's pivot around 255.7. The black swan today is that many took profits yesterday afternoon, and many more are getting on the sidelines (in a wide array of indexes). The Doha meeting and the fact many have been burned from the aftershocks of oil movements will put many specs on the sidelines going in to the weekend. From a macro point of view, this meeting has more consequences market wide than people are giving credit. No one wants to play musical chairs on this one. This has created extremely low volume on typically volatile stocks. To which bears are certainly taking advantage of. I would watch carefully between 12:30-2EST, as that will likely pin the movement in to power hour.

As for Doha, IMHO there is no way they will come to a consensus, it's absurd to even entertain the idea -- this is buy rumor sell news v2.0 on oil, which will effect many things market wide. Longs in oil are going to get burned [again], and that liquidity is going to cause a very short term ripple next week. My opinion, just providing some insight.

Do you think today is staying with the recent pattern of shorts trying to suppress price during the quieter hours, and that TSLA should catch up with the rest of the market later in the afternoon?

 

[madodel]

Endless speculation about what AAPL will do. I'm still waiting for the Apple television set that people have been speculating about for years. Just more shills trying to manipulate TSLA and make a few cents off of people clicking on completely useless articles. If AAPL were to actually build something that isn't a clownmobile then it helps the image of EVs. That would just spell faster doom for the rest of the auto industry, not Tesla. Tesla and AAPL and any other real EV manufacturer can easily split the existing huge market for EVs.

 

[BobSk]

That doesn't mean they will do it. Various oil producing nations have been screaming for some sort of action for quite some time now. The Saudis have been playing a battle against Iran's, Russia's, and U.S. production. They have succeeded to some degree.

The issue is whether or not this has anything to do with TSLA anymore. We are now in the after Model 3 unveiling era, AM3U, and in the BM3D (before Model 3 deliveries) era, so do we play by the same oil rules? Several tests are coming up to find out.

Higher oil is both positive and negative for Tesla. Ultimately it's positive. For a 12~18 month time frame, I think oil is going higher. Weather it's this meeting or next, they will agree on something. Both Saudi and Russia are desperate to see higher oil prices. Shale producers are even more so because of higher production cost.
Long-term I think the oil industry will dramatically reduce size. The society is switching to EV and Hyperloop + solar and wind.

 

[DesertCO]

I think my lack of confidence anything will come out of Doha stems from the fact Saudi will not stop until US Shale is crushed. It's a proxy currency war with the flag of oil, and as a macro, the energy tide is changing. They know all too well that if you leave the dandelion with even a little bit of life, it will come back with a vengeance. They also know that a production freeze will help US oil, which is not inline with their policy. This is not to mention that none of these countries have the same goals or motives. Even if they could come to some sort of agreement, the barge count, reserve supply, and enforcement of such a policy between desperate nations would be nearly impossible to manage. Right now almost all oil indexes are on a rally. DWTI (inverse crude ETN) is getting smacked. This is spec on something positive coming from Doha Sunday.. The ol' faithful oil longs. Personally I would not want to be long on any oil index right now. This is a dead cat bounce waiting to happen. It would be a bigger bet than I would make since these markets are heavily manipulated.. But if I were a gambler, I would be very bullish on DWTI come next week.

This is more than just the cliche thought that somehow TSLA moves in the direction of oil. Many specs seem to harbor this theory. I disagree, the two have nothing to do with one another. However, in terms of money, and liquidity, there is a very direct correlation. I have a feeling there are many institutions, heavy hitters that are holding both long and short, with vested interests in ICE and oil that are waiting for the opportunity to pounce TSLA.

Again, just the theories I harbor from watching the macros on different indexes and SP's.

 

[Tslynk67]

News like this ought to kick the SP up a bit, but never seems to do so:

Tesla Model S deliveries are up 117% in Switzerland where the automaker dominates the luxury segment [Chart]

 

[Ulmo]

To be fair, a lot of that has to do with when Tesla ships out to that country, which is generally done in batches that skip months at a time. That can explain some of the weird negative news regarding Tesla registrations in some EU countries, as well. One has to be less specific than monthly registrations to truly understand Tesla EU sales.

 

[DesertCO]

Do you think today is staying with the recent pattern of shorts trying to suppress price during the quieter hours, and that TSLA should catch up with the rest of the market later in the afternoon?

I think there are a lot of people on the sidelines right now -- hence low volume. Shorts are taking advantage of the doldrums.

 

[Ulmo]

Ok, holding to my 10:15AM PT (which is 13:15 ET) post-lunch pick a direction this week theory, it's time for a direction to be picked.

 

[Tslynk67]

To be fair, a lot of that has to do with when Tesla ships out to that country, which is generally done in batches that skip months at a time. That can explain some of the weird negative news regarding Tesla registrations in some EU countries, as well. One has to be less specific than monthly registrations to truly understand Tesla EU sales.

Don't agree - this is a long-term trend, look at the graph...

 

[DesertCO]

Last update for a bit, we dropped under yesterday's 1st pivot 251.7, so IMO that sets the trend rangebound between the support of 249.xx and 255.7 -- same range as yesterday. This low volume is killing short term positions, no wind for sails. I don't expect power hour to be significant at these volumes.

 

[sunhelm]

Don't agree - this is a long-term trend, look at the graph...

I think I read the below article at TMC and may be worth repeating. A constant bear argument is that Tesla's car demand is artificially propped up by incentives. Well, Switzerland is a texbook case of a neutral economic zone (fuel tax for diesel vs gas is the same, no EV incentive, no domestic brand loyalty) and yet, Tesla's sales continue to trend upwards. The story here is that all things being equal, Tesla clearly has the product and features that is desirable to a consumer.

Ferdinand Dudenhöffer: ICE Manufacturers Will Have To Adopt The “Tesla Principle” To Stay Relevant

 

[Intl Professor]

It's in everyone's interest to cut 5% production and double triple the profit.

It depends upon how anxious the Iranians are in rejoining the market. In the long run you're right, but....I think we can discount any chance of Venezuela's cooperation (I'm not sure they are in OPEC but it doesn't make any difference).

 

[Tslynk67]

Approaching 400k M3 reservations: Tesla Vice President says Model 3 reservations are ‘approaching 400,000’, real success will be delivery

I have no affiliation with Electrek - I just get notifications on their updates!

 

[FredLambert]

I have affiliation with Electrek - I just get notifications on their updates!

You mean you have NO affiliation right? Cause I'm the managing editor of electrek and I was unaware lol...

 

[jhm]

Well that was a non-event:

Motor Trend on Twitter

Discuss. This weird-mobile looks to be very conceptual and not really a nice car to ride in except for maybe a taxi service. Honestly, companies like Faraday Future have more to worry about due to this Apple Car than Tesla does. Then again, maybe Faraday Future is Apple in disguise. As a P85D driver, there is no way the Apple Car depicted here (if true) appeals to me and I would never spend $130-150,000 on a car that looked like that.

Is it an ICE killer? If traditional automakers are not worried, then we move on.

 

[FANGO]

+1

This is Motor Trend, who somehow accelerated the Ludicrous S P90D to 60mph in 2.6 seconds, but didn't provide any video of the event or any science behind it. 0.2 seconds faster than the manufacturer's 2.8-second time is quite a feat. Honestly without video evidence of the tests, I am minded to simply consider announcements like that to be made up... makes great headlines though.

I'd say "TSLA seems to be treading water" except it's amateur hour and anything could happen. The general market has opened quietly, so at least TSLA is following suit.

Motor Trend uses a 1-foot rollout on all their acceleration tests. They have always done it this way so their numbers are internally consistent.

 

[hoang51]

Approaching 400k M3 reservations: Tesla Vice President says Model 3 reservations are ‘approaching 400,000’, real success will be delivery

...

One would think this would at least stop TSLA from bleeding red today. So almost 75K reservations later, the market now doesn't care as much about the large reservation number. So that's an indication that the market cares if TSLA can deliver a high amount of Model 3. I'm sensing TSLA to trade even more downward than sideways with lack of unexpected favorable news.