Ulmo
Active Member
Oh, I see this has already been caught. Ugh --- for all I pay for my news stream, I'd expect at least a little bit of better filtering. Did Bloomberg deliver this crap?
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McMuggets
Member
I've noticed that the WSJ never writes anything positive about Tesla. Also the LA-Times. It's strange and concerning as a Canadian to see American media doing such clearly biased reporting (if you can call it that). Also, it's amazing to see the CNBC folks trotting out Chanos and Lutz about 1-2 weeks prior to TSLA earnings reports to trash the stock. Chanos probably has people at his fund locking in some profits while he trashes TSLA and SCTY live on CNBC... just speculation but it is seriously looking so timed. Rinse and repeat. It's manipulation and it is allowed.
This is just a view from the perspective of someone outside of the USA. By the way, your media controls your national direction. The pundits and talking heads seem to set the narrative for everything political. No matter how crazy something sounds, if you get bombarded with it over and over on every "news" network, suddenly before you know it you're building a wall to keep Mexicans out. Watching American news is frightening. Please take no offence, my comments aren't meant to sound personal but only as an observation.
PaulRocket
Member
In Q1 they sold 25MWh of Tesla Energy products. Assuming 470$ per kWh. That equals 12 million dollars in revenue. Also probably 40-50% gross margin.
Any guesses for full year revenue? They used to say couple hundred million dollars and since ramp is happening very fast from what I heard, is this still possible?
Any guesses for full year revenue? They used to say couple hundred million dollars and since ramp is happening very fast from what I heard, is this still possible?
Well, EC was way past my bed-time, but what pleasant news to wake up to here in Europe 
My only problem is that I'm waiting a fairly fat tax refund for last year and I plan to plow every single € in TSLA, so I hope it doesn't go through the roof just yet... I'm medium-long, with the wife wanting to buy a house as soon as possible, so I was looking for a SP of around €600 - thanks to the M3 ramp, I think this will come sooner rather than later. However, I'd like to leave the shares alone - I'd like to retire a millionaire (in 15 years-ish) and my little nest-egg will achieve that if I leave it put...
Anyway, my plan from here is to buy and hold, regardless of SP...
One thing you've all missed - the bringing-forward of the M3 planning will also bring-forward the much-discussed second-revelation of the M3 gospel, according to EM - this may have an positive SP impact...
My only problem is that I'm waiting a fairly fat tax refund for last year and I plan to plow every single € in TSLA, so I hope it doesn't go through the roof just yet... I'm medium-long, with the wife wanting to buy a house as soon as possible, so I was looking for a SP of around €600 - thanks to the M3 ramp, I think this will come sooner rather than later. However, I'd like to leave the shares alone - I'd like to retire a millionaire (in 15 years-ish) and my little nest-egg will achieve that if I leave it put...
Anyway, my plan from here is to buy and hold, regardless of SP...
One thing you've all missed - the bringing-forward of the M3 planning will also bring-forward the much-discussed second-revelation of the M3 gospel, according to EM - this may have an positive SP impact...
Excellent big picture view. Buffet has you beat, though, reducing it to 3 questions:
1). How big is the castle? In TSLA's case it is a big chunk of a trillion dollar industry. One of the biggest castles ever.
2). How wide is the moat? In TSLAs case, very wide, particularly since they have just moved up by 2 years the challenge for someone else to beat them into first mover advantage for a mass market electric car.
3). Does the market cap already take into account such a big castle and wide moat? In TSLAs case, clearly not. As an extreme comparison, take AMZN, that is priced not on earnings but solely on the size of its castle and moat, and I would argue that TSLA now has a better story than AMZN on those terms.
I'm long, and a few hours away from getting longer.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
First of all, congrats to all $TSLA longs.
Personally each ER again and again I am looking for a statement that demand is still growing.
I really like the way they reiterate demand getting stronger and stronger each quarterly earnings report!
I think it is very important to mention this continously to prevent FUD on this topic.
Is it too much of a simplification to reduce this ER to two points:
- Issues of the past (X production issues) are now resolved?
- Tesla now switching again into a more agressive growth mode?
Thank's in advance for any thoughts!
BTW some green here in Europe
Personally each ER again and again I am looking for a statement that demand is still growing.
I really like the way they reiterate demand getting stronger and stronger each quarterly earnings report!
I think it is very important to mention this continously to prevent FUD on this topic.
Is it too much of a simplification to reduce this ER to two points:
- Issues of the past (X production issues) are now resolved?
- Tesla now switching again into a more agressive growth mode?
Thank's in advance for any thoughts!
BTW some green here in Europe
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When you couple the acceleration of the M3 build plan with the statement in the shareholder letter that the objective with the M3 includes "strong margins", things get very exciting.
Previous to yesterday, I assumed that scaled production of M3 was 4 years away and any internal projection on margins might be based on factors not in the company's control (e.g reasonable, but not definite, future cost reductions of parts). But now, with scaled production just 2 years away, the company's commitment to strong margins must be based on near current parts supply conditions.
Demand for the M3 is already proven by the preorders. Unless Musk and all his executives, lawyers and accountants are pathological liars, TM is soon going to produce millions of cars at a strong margin to meet that demand. Those are gigantic near future earnings, and I no longer see a single risk factor to substantially discount these in arriving at a fair SP.
Previous to yesterday, I assumed that scaled production of M3 was 4 years away and any internal projection on margins might be based on factors not in the company's control (e.g reasonable, but not definite, future cost reductions of parts). But now, with scaled production just 2 years away, the company's commitment to strong margins must be based on near current parts supply conditions.
Demand for the M3 is already proven by the preorders. Unless Musk and all his executives, lawyers and accountants are pathological liars, TM is soon going to produce millions of cars at a strong margin to meet that demand. Those are gigantic near future earnings, and I no longer see a single risk factor to substantially discount these in arriving at a fair SP.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
After the accelerated guidance yesterday it becomes clear that the main investment thesis of continued relentless growth has been both reaffirmed and strengthened. Tesla as a company is on track to become an absolute financial behemoth, perhaps the most valuable company in the world in 20-30 years? (I mean this without any irony attached - it's the conclusion I come to when reasoning from first principles).
So short term the big question then becomes: aren't we all picking up pennies in front of a steam roller trying to trade this thing? It's one thing maybe to try to leverage yourself somewhat using a deep ITM LEAPS strategy but for me personally from now on I'm done wasting money trading that could have instead just gone toward steadily increasing my core holdings.
So short term the big question then becomes: aren't we all picking up pennies in front of a steam roller trying to trade this thing? It's one thing maybe to try to leverage yourself somewhat using a deep ITM LEAPS strategy but for me personally from now on I'm done wasting money trading that could have instead just gone toward steadily increasing my core holdings.
And of the analysts, I would single out Patrick Archambault from Goldman. The strong Bulls (Kallo, Albertine, etc) and the strong Bears (BofA, Pacific Crest) will not likely change their spots and the price target will creep back up to 280-300 as they amend their models and raise their price targets. The fulcrum is Goldman (Tesla & Elon's banker).
They need to wink at the Chinese wall between stock analysis and investment banking, move their probability of a disruptive Tesla significantly higher in their 2 optimistic (and more accurate) models - Tesla as Apple and as the Model T, and raise the stock estimate North of 325. That would get the party started and provide some fuel for a raise. The last raise was around $232 - I would guess a raise of $1Billion in equity and 1 Billion in debt at around the ATH would further provide clarity, reduce uncertainty the market detests and provide sufficient Capital along with cash from operations and partnerships to meet the accelerated ramp. Capital Raise # 2 for additional plants and Giga factories would likely land around Model III unveil in 1H of 2017.
Just speculating.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
BTW fracking industry already in trouble because of low oil price and it now looks like Well Fargo getting a bit in trouble because of financing deficitary fracking industry. This will get interesting. Personally I could imagine that a scenario like this will finally stabilize oil prices.
We were extremely suspicious of the 900K number but the person assured us that they had the land 'to expand' at the Fremont site.
So, while robotics and less space needed for transmissions and ICE engines, etc, will help, more square footage will need (or has been?) added to get to 900K/year.
I may have missed it, but I think you left CapEx out of the equation and only used OpEx - or am I wrong?
We've got the first PT raise - by Ben Kallo of Baird, who reiterated Buy rating and raised PT $300 --> $338. Digest via Streetinsider.com (paywall)
Opex is a factor in determining profitability. Capex obviously affects cash flow, added to the balance sheet, but does not affect profit.
Elon largely kept his powder dry on TE. No mention of Powerpack orders. No concrete sales or production projections or discussions of ramp (a huge contrast to the dramatic news on the Model 3, plus 1,000,000 car projection for 2020). No discussion of all the Powerwall pre-orders that have been out there for a year or when they will be filled. No meaningful discussion of margins. He did mention rapid growth (but from a small base), and JB's comments about having enough GF capacity to ramp up TE plus Model 3 sales was nice.
The relative silence on TE still leaves room for a nice upside surprise later in the year closer to when the GF is ready for cell production. Not sure if the shorts will still be around by then to be squeezed but they are a surprisingly stubborn bunch so I would not rule it out.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'd like to see Tesla build out a full, working Model 3 line by January. By full and working, I mean that they are able to manufacture in house every component and can assemble into a complete car. Tesla needs direct hands on experience with every component to anticipate problems that suppliers may encounter. Suppliers will earn their business if, by July, they can do better than the in-house team on volume and price. Otherwise, Tesla is completely prepared to in-source anything that a supplier cannot handle by July. We should expect 1 to 2 percent of vendors to fail this test and Tesla to be able to step in without delay.
Really no one speculating that the 2 VP left because they did not want to support the enormous whopper of 100-200 k M3 next year?
you have by now seen what happened and how much time took to start S and X production. You are seeing in these very days how difficult is to ramp up X production, I think it's really hard to believe in 100 K M3 beginning in six month from now...
UJnfortunately, the less a car costs the more it is difficult to arrange its production line since it is needed an optimization cost level not necessary for luxury cars
you have by now seen what happened and how much time took to start S and X production. You are seeing in these very days how difficult is to ramp up X production, I think it's really hard to believe in 100 K M3 beginning in six month from now...
UJnfortunately, the less a car costs the more it is difficult to arrange its production line since it is needed an optimization cost level not necessary for luxury cars
The production VP hasn't left, he's just taking a sabbatical (see above). If you've read EM's biography then you'd appreciate why
I suggest to listen to the ER call, where this was specifically addressed in detail. The gist of what Elon said is that MS/MX program was set up completely differently than the Model 3 program - analogy is flawed and irrelevant. You can listen the websact of the call for further details.
Please, afford basic intelligence to Elon and his team.
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