Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Volume is once again insanely low. Any guesses as to why? I don't think the stock will move up until we get volume.

My best guess is that big money (institutions) are sitting on the sidelines for now as they negotiate a cap raise. Considering some short term calls even though I've been burned repeatedly lately.

 

[tanner]

It seems like another "slow day", so can we use it to try and collect what you guys expect as TSLA catalysts in the short to mid-term? I am talking about things we know are coming up - Elon can always surprise us, of course.

Here is my 2 cents:

• May 31st: Tesla Shareholder meeting. Tesla could provide more information on GF and M3 progress.
• June: GF grand opening. The event itself and any update on TE or timeline for the rest of GF1.
• End of June/Early July: M3 design lockdown (will there be a tweet?)
• July 1-4?: Q2 delivery report. Could be interesting timing-wise as July 1st is a Friday (probably too early for them to know final tally), 2-3 are a weekend and July 4 is a holiday.
• 1st week of August: Q2 ER.

Sounds about right!

 

[Renaud]

Could be in some dangerous territory today, let's hope we don't push below the $203 low.

It's been indeed a strong support, let's hope it holds if we go down there...
Max-Pain for friday @ 225, although money wise for the MM, not much difference if it's 210 or 240.
Anybody knows what the Open Interest Ratio means? I understand what it is, but how can one interpret this data?

We are so much oversold lately, that one can hope for a little relieve rallye, no?

 

[tanner]

It's been indeed a strong support, let's hope it holds if we go down there...
Max-Pain for friday @ 225, although money wise for the MM, not much difference if it's 210 or 240.
Anybody knows what the Open Interest Ratio means? I understand what it is, but how can one interpret this data?

We are so much oversold lately, that one can hope for a little relieve rallye, no?

Currently, we're just above the oversold RSI (we're at 31.3)

 

[ZenMan]

The details of the position are listed here: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I'm not well-versed in bonds, and I'm probably butchering the terminology here, but from what I understand Soros has acquired convertible notes maturing March 2021 and a par value of $2.5 Million. It looks like the notes are currently trading at around 86% par. The notes are convertible to the tune of 2.78 shares per $1000 principal.

So if I understand all this correctly, buying these notes right now is like buying shares for $309 (deliverable in 2021) plus a guarantee of getting all your money back if Tesla stays solvent through 2021, plus a yield of about 1.4% as of writing. That seems like a pretty good deal to me. Am I missing anything?

Anyone know how I can replicate this? I'm buying Jan 2018 300 call options for $16 each. This seems like a much better deal without risk of loss.

 

[tinm]

Aaaaand once again the LA Times shows its anti-Tesla colors, with a new story addressing the injured-paint-shop-worker-who-made-$5-an-hour story by baldly stating, in the first paragraph, that Tesla uses "cheap, imported labor to build its luxury battery-electric automobiles."

Not even the original San Jose Mercury News story makes that assertion. This is pure LA Times spin/b.s./FUD, by the auto editor (surprise, surprise).

 

[tanner]

Volume is once again insanely low. Any guesses as to why? I don't think the stock will move up until we get volume.

My best guess is that big money (institutions) are sitting on the sidelines for now as they negotiate a cap raise. Considering some short term calls even though I've been burned repeatedly lately.

Volume actually isn't head bad.... I'd be (more) worried if it were 15-20k/5 min right about now.

 

[Gerasimental]

Aaaaand once again the LA Times shows its anti-Tesla colors, with a new story addressing the injured-paint-shop-worker-who-made-$5-an-hour story by baldly stating, in the first paragraph, that Tesla uses "cheap, imported labor to build its luxury battery-electric automobiles."

Not even the original San Jose Mercury News story makes that assertion. This is pure LA Times spin/b.s./FUD, by the auto editor (surprise, surprise).

Confirmation bias much? The paragraph you posted clearly is saying that Mercury had made the accusation. This is not really true, but still, the LA Times certainly did not 'state that Tesla uses' anything.

Anyway, I think this is a non story for the stock. I wish we'd all use the 'Fact or Fiction' thread more.

 

[Gerasimental]

What happened here?? total volume for these four 2-minute intervals was 2000. The usual volume for a 2-minute interval in the frist hour of trading is 10k-100k.

 

[tinm]

Confirmation bias much? The paragraph you posted clearly is saying that Mercury had made the accusation. This is not really true, but still, the LA Times certainly did not 'state that Tesla uses' anything.

Anyway, I think this is a non story for the stock. I wish we'd all use the 'Fact or Fiction' thread more.

It's once again "mission accomplished" for the LA Times: mislead the reader about Tesla.

And yes I am painfully aware of the Fact or Fiction thread but since this forum switched its software, it's a pain to try to find old threads.

 

[Renaud]

Basically we're following Nasdaq today, aren't we?
I was maybe a bit over zealous when stating we're oversold, as pointed by Tanner, but what I meant actually is relative to the history of TSLA, there have been only a few times when RSI was that low. Now, I may not be using the correct time frame when checking.

 

[Gerasimental]

It's once again "mission accomplished" for the LA Times: mislead the reader about Tesla.

And yes I am painfully aware of the Fact or Fiction thread but since this forum switched its software, it's a pain to try to find old threads.

Sure, I didn't mean to defend the LA Times. It's misleading and clearly malicious. I agree with you about the software too. Shame.

 

[CatB]

If only your deal could pay you a guaranteed return and interest at the same time like his! How do I get in on deals like that?

+1, if only they could do the capital raise this way and make it available to current shareholders in lower increments, I would be thrilled to sign up for as many as I can afford (given current excellent advice from this forum about not betting more than you can afford to lose, of course, you all do rock - especially when you're polite and professional about opposing points of view, keep it up!).

 

[CatB]

Could be in some dangerous territory today, let's hope we don't push below the $203 low.

Not likely - I say that with no professional experience, judgment or insight - just an acute sense of my own luck. I have a tiny buy order in just below that, hoping to pick something up on sale, and I have a hunch I'm not going to be that lucky any time soon... ;-)

 

[FredTMC]

Sure, I didn't mean to defend the LA Times. It's misleading and clearly malicious. I agree with you about the software too. Shame.

Fortunately, in L.A. (their local market) few readers believe them. Everyone in L.A. knows someone with a tesla. there's tons of them here in So Cal.

 

[davecolene0606]

So just piled on to the long position just above 206. Highest price ever added to the long position 4-6 year horizon on that. Short term position all out @ $262.... hanging around to see if it drifts a bit lower prior to annual meeting before jumping back in. Kinda looking like a retrace below $200 not gonna happen this time around (yea here it goes now)

These moves courtesy of... readin and it feels right

Fire Away!

 

[MitchJi]

And yes I am painfully aware of the Fact or Fiction thread but since this forum switched its software, it's a pain to try to find old threads.

It's a sticky.


Maybe your problem is the combination of the new forum software, combined with using a smart phone for access?

If so I highly recommend getting a tablet with cellular access. When the forum switched SW partly due to a disability the forum was unusable for me. I bought a iPad mini 4 (has Touch ID),with the cellular chip for about $400. I can't describe how much nicer it is compared to using my iPhone. The only thing that I still use the iPhone for is making and sometimes receiving phone calls.

Even if you don't have any problems using a smart phone browser I strongly recommend getting a small tablet in addition to your smart phone. You will definitely love it !

 

[MitchJi]

I should have waited until today to pile on. I bought a bunch of January 2018 $280 LEAPS over the last few days. I mostly paid between $19.50 and $21.50. I also would have been a little bit better off if I had waited to roll some January 2018 $160's to 280's.

But I'm happy. My plan is to sell them at a nice profit sometime between now and March 2017. Then buy some January 2019 Leaps. I want to capture the gain from the production increase, but I want to try to get the last portion of that with the 2019's in case there's a problem with the 2018 schedule. I believe it will be good but I don't want to take a chance. The only risk I see is if the SP stays down through about July 2017 and it stays down through J18 because the production ramp crashes and burns.

 

[MitchJi]

On the tweet he said closer to production, which could be tomorrow. I agree that I don't think it will be soon either. But I also don't think that it's good to misrepresent (even unintentionally) what Elon said.

I'm actually pretty confident that the second reveal won't be until Tesla either refreshes the S-X (at least another battery capacity increase) or pretty close to the launch.

I think it's clear that the reasons that they hid some features is due to concerns about canabalizing S-X sales. It's also pretty clear that when the additional features are revealed Elon expects the demand to increase substantially, (which should move the SP).

 

[30seconds]

And hopefully they get a bit more time to determine if some features are "production scale ready" before committing to them.