Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[woof]

Horrors! Never shorten the spelling. "Queueing" is one of a lamentably short number of English language words containing five consecutive vowels.

Obiligtory XKCD reference follows.
Warning: One of the few XKCDs that are NSFW.
xkcd: Consecutive Vowels

 

[dha]

Soros 13F shows a new position in TSLA. Haven't seen the details yet

Thanks Jesselivermore for posting

The details of the position are listed here: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I'm not well-versed in bonds, and I'm probably butchering the terminology here, but from what I understand Soros has acquired convertible notes maturing March 2021 and a par value of $2.5 Million. It looks like the notes are currently trading at around 86% par. The notes are convertible to the tune of 2.78 shares per $1000 principal.

So if I understand all this correctly, buying these notes right now is like buying shares for $309 (deliverable in 2021) plus a guarantee of getting all your money back if Tesla stays solvent through 2021, plus a yield of about 1.4% as of writing. That seems like a pretty good deal to me. Am I missing anything?

 

[esk8mw]

And if you wanted something butt ugly you would have bought an I3 right? ;-)

Ha, that is the only criterion that could cause me to want an i3. I can't understand how things like that are given the green light for production.

 

[Causalien]

The details of the position are listed here: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I'm not well-versed in bonds, and I'm probably butchering the terminology here, but from what I understand Soros has acquired convertible notes maturing March 2021 and a par value of $2.5 Million. It looks like the notes are currently trading at around 86% par. The notes are convertible to the tune of 2.78 shares per $1000 principal.

So if I understand all this correctly, buying these notes right now is like buying shares for $309 (deliverable in 2021) plus a guarantee of getting all your money back if Tesla stays solvent through 2021, plus a yield of about 1.4% as of writing. That seems like a pretty good deal to me. Am I missing anything?

Chanos is screwed. There are severe consequences for publicly going against Soros.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

The details of the position are listed here: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I'm not well-versed in bonds, and I'm probably butchering the terminology here, but from what I understand Soros has acquired convertible notes maturing March 2021 and a par value of $2.5 Million. It looks like the notes are currently trading at around 86% par. The notes are convertible to the tune of 2.78 shares per $1000 principal.

So if I understand all this correctly, buying these notes right now is like buying shares for $309 (deliverable in 2021) plus a guarantee of getting all your money back if Tesla stays solvent through 2021, plus a yield of about 1.4% as of writing. That seems like a pretty good deal to me. Am I missing anything?

So Soros did not buy stock?

 

[Causalien]

So Soros did not buy stock?

He bought a long term call option.

 

[Xpert]

So here's the question in my mind. Assuming they do a raise and it is a slight "down" round, does assuaging the model 3 concerns outweigh the dilution or not?

This is a milion dollar question. Cap raise is inevitable. Will the market love cap raise once completed, or hate the dillution caused by it? I keep pondering how to play this catalyst.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

He bought a long term call option.

So basically Soros is doing what Curt mentioned already some days ago

 

[ev-enthusiast]

This is a milion dollar question. Cap raise is inevitable. Will the market love cap raise once completed, or hate the dillution caused by it? I keep pondering how to play this catalyst.

And here is the one dollar question:
Given Tesla Motor's track record of the last couple of years and all the goals they achieved, will it be favorable for Tesla Motors to grow a lot faster again?
Hint:
The last couple of times the market loved it.
And by the way, just run some numbers on the newly projected growth rate. After you have done this you will no longer worry about dilution.

 

[FredTMC]

The details of the position are listed here: SEC FORM 13-F Information Table

I'm not well-versed in bonds, and I'm probably butchering the terminology here, but from what I understand Soros has acquired convertible notes maturing March 2021 and a par value of $2.5 Million. It looks like the notes are currently trading at around 86% par. The notes are convertible to the tune of 2.78 shares per $1000 principal.

So if I understand all this correctly, buying these notes right now is like buying shares for $309 (deliverable in 2021) plus a guarantee of getting all your money back if Tesla stays solvent through 2021, plus a yield of about 1.4% as of writing. That seems like a pretty good deal to me. Am I missing anything?

I'm still having a difficult time understanding the size of the inevitable stock position? If he effectively bought a Long term call option, what will the position be worth if the stock is at $309? Takeaway: $2.5 million doesn't seem like a sizeable position (comvertible notes) but maybe it's worth far more in 2021 after reaching maturity and TSLA is over $309. Help... TIA.

Regardless, great to see him take a position in TSLA

 

[Papafox]

Thinking that Soros was buying stock, I became somewhat hopeful for tomorrow's trading. In the long run, his having a stake in Tesla's survival through 2021 is an even better thing.

 

[MitchJi]

Not even sure where this "soonish" M3 Part 2 idea is coming from when. The Man himself said it will be close to production. My bet: Just before the design studio opens.

On the tweet he said closer to production, which could be tomorrow. I agree that I don't think it will be soon either. But I also don't think that it's good to misrepresent (even unintentionally) what Elon said.

 

[dha]

I'm still having a difficult time understanding the size of the inevitable stock position? If he effectively bought a Long term call option, what will the position be worth if the stock is at $309? Takeaway: $2.5 million doesn't seem like a sizeable position (comvertible notes) but maybe it's worth far more in 2021 after reaching maturity and TSLA is over $309. Help... TIA.

Regardless, great to see him take a position in TSLA

Soros bought 2,500 notes for approximately $2.15 million. In 2021, assuming Tesla does not go bankrupt, each note will be exchanged for either $1,000 or 2.78 shares--whichever is worth more. In addition, Soros will be collecting $12.50 per note per year in interest.

 

[Johan]

Soros bought 2,500 notes for approximately $2.15 million. In 2021, assuming Tesla does not go bankrupt, each note will be exchanged for either $1,000 or 2.78 shares--whichever is worth more. In addition, Soros will be collecting $12.50 per note per year in interest.

So a whopping ~7000 shares then

I guess Soros and I aren't that different after all (no I don't hold 7000 TSLA but not too far from it)

 

[Tenable]

I love any remotely positive news. But 2.15 million is not a considerable stake, also the fact that he purchased convertible bonds instead of shares. I doubt we will see this move the needle at all. Citron announced it was long on VRX, while I'm not the biggest fan of the scumbag, I'd expect that to be more likely to move the stock tomorrow.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Mitsubishi UFJ Trust increasing stake in $TSLA ?
Mitsubishi Ufj Trust & Banking Corp Increased Tesla Motors INC (NASDAQ:TSLA) by $14.80 Million as Shares Rose - CCH Daily News

 

[Irishjugg]

So a whopping ~7000 shares then

I guess Soros and I aren't that different after all (no I don't hold 7000 TSLA but not too far from it)

If only your deal could pay you a guaranteed return and interest at the same time like his! How do I get in on deals like that?

 

[mrdoubleb]

On the tweet he said closer to production, which could be tomorrow. I agree that I don't think it will be soon either. But I also don't think that it's good to misrepresent (even unintentionally) what Elon said.

While there surely is some room for interpretation on what he meant by "closer" (the week before? 1 month before?) many on these threads are anticipating Part 2 to happen soon. I don`t think they have any incentives to do that and potentially a lot to lose if they do so. They already have crazy high pre-orders, don`t need to create more hype around the 3 at this time, but could be giving away competitive advantage. Anyway, time will tell.

 

[tanner]

Could be in some dangerous territory today, let's hope we don't push below the $203 low.

 

[mrdoubleb]

It seems like another "slow day", so can we use it to try and collect what you guys expect as TSLA catalysts in the short to mid-term? I am talking about things we know are coming up - Elon can always surprise us, of course.

Here is my 2 cents:

• May 31st: Tesla Shareholder meeting. Tesla could provide more information on GF and M3 progress.
• June: GF grand opening. The event itself and any update on TE or timeline for the rest of GF1.
• End of June/Early July: M3 design lockdown (will there be a tweet?)
• July 1-4?: Q2 delivery report. Could be interesting timing-wise as July 1st is a Friday (probably too early for them to know final tally), 2-3 are a weekend and July 4 is a holiday.
• 1st week of August: Q2 ER.