Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp.

I'm assuming Tesla doesn't have the capacity to get superHUD into the S/X before model 3 release. I assume this is why Musk keeps telling S/X owners how much he appreciates their support.

Tesla may not have planned for UI 2.0 to go into the Model 3 first. It may have been targeted in the model X.

The ghosting in the model X windshield may be a HUD lamination layer, as I suggested in another thread.

I do not understand how anyone can have this line of thinking. They are in clearly different classes. When I wanted small sport sedans I bought M3s. I didn't cross shop 7 series and Cayennes because I didn't want a large car or an SUV.

When I wanted a large sedan I bought a Model S - I didn't cross-shop a 3 series and I still didn't give the Cayenne a look.

It's not like there is a defined pool of electric car buyers and they just choose among the 4-5 different options. It's not 2010 anymore. The Model 3 is growing the pool of potential buyers, massively. So far, the reveal is bringing in more Model S/X buyers as people are introduced to Tesla for the first time or start to become seriously interested in the idea of an electric car. There's no reason to think this trend will stop. People follow the herd - if 500k can get behind the Model 3, then there must be some staying power to this whole battery car thing.

I concede that at the margins some potential S buyers will buy a 3 instead once both are available. The appeal of the S is so strong that many people who prefer small cars are willing to go against their desire for a small car in order to own the S. My opinion (which is actually happening so far) is that this "cannibalization" figure will be dwarfed by the larger pool of people buying in to the idea of electric cars and buying the S. These are buyers drawn into the Tesla brand by the Model 3 hype and buy an S after testing it out or after deciding they need one NOW. I don't think X cannibalization will occur at all. A small sedan has nothing in common with a large 7 seater SUV.

 

[MitchJi]

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp.

I'm assuming Tesla doesn't have the capacity to get superHUD into the S/X before model 3 release. I assume this is why Musk keeps telling S/X owners how much he appreciates their support .

You really think that S-X owners will be upset if the M3 ships with HUD ?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp. I'm assuming Tesla doesn't have the capacity to get superHUD into the S/X before model 3 release.

This is unlikely, because Model S, Model X, and Model 3 all target different segments of the car market.

Someone who needs a medium-sized CUV is not going to buy a smaller sedan like Model 3. There will still be people who want a large sedan like Model S because they want a large sedan.

Where additional tech is concerned: Honda Civics don't kill Honda Accord sales, even when the Civic is released with next-generation electronics/gadgets (Honda does a full model change on Civic a bit more than midway through the Accord's cycle). The full reveal of Model X in September didn't kill Model S sales, even though Model X had a lot of features that were unavailable in Model S at the time.

I assume this is why Musk keeps telling S/X owners how much he appreciates their support.

Model 3 wouldn't be possible without Model S, and to some extent, Model X. Model S demonstrated that Tesla could compete with the big automakers. Without Model S, Tesla would not have been able to raise capital for expansion.

 

[electracity]

Look at all the conventional thinking.
This isn't a car company filling out a product line. This is a tech company with a next generation product. I have a Mac II system unit in my attic that cost about $15K in today's dollars.

Why was it that Tesla didn't continue building the Roadster?

 

[madodel]

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp.

That is what was said about the X killing off S sales and it didn't happen. They are different markets. Now S CPO sales may take a hit from people who want a more affordable Tesla and want it now.

 

[madodel]

I do not understand how anyone can have this line of thinking. They are in clearly different classes. When I wanted small sport sedans I bought M3s. I didn't cross shop 7 series and Cayennes because I didn't want a large car or an SUV.

When I wanted a large sedan I bought a Model S - I didn't cross-shop a 3 series and I still didn't give the Cayenne a look.

It's not like there is a defined pool of electric car buyers and they just choose among the 4-5 different options. It's not 2010 anymore. The Model 3 is growing the pool of potential buyers, massively. So far, the reveal is bringing in more Model S/X buyers as people are introduced to Tesla for the first time or start to become seriously interested in the idea of an electric car. There's no reason to think this trend will stop. People follow the herd - if 500k can get behind the Model 3, then there must be some staying power to this whole battery car thing.

I concede that at the margins some potential S buyers will buy a 3 instead once both are available. The appeal of the S is so strong that many people who prefer small cars are willing to go against their desire for a small car in order to own the S. My opinion (which is actually happening so far) is that this "cannibalization" figure will be dwarfed by the larger pool of people buying in to the idea of electric cars and buying the S. These are buyers drawn into the Tesla brand by the Model 3 hype and buy an S after testing it out or after deciding they need one NOW. I don't think X cannibalization will occur at all. A small sedan has nothing in common with a large 7 seater SUV.

And if you wanted something butt ugly you would have bought an I3 right? ;-)

 

[mrdoubleb]

You really think that S-X owners will be upset if the M3 ships with HUD ?

This is unlikely, because Model S, Model X, and Model 3 all target different segments of the car market.

Someone who needs a medium-sized CUV is not going to buy a smaller sedan like Model 3. There will still be people who want a large sedan like Model S because they want a large sedan.

Where additional tech is concerned: Honda Civics don't kill Honda Accord sales, even when the Civic is released with next-generation electronics/gadgets (Honda does a full model change on Civic a bit more than midway through the Accord's cycle). The full reveal of Model X in September didn't kill Model S sales, even though Model X had a lot of features that were unavailable in Model S at the time.




Model 3 wouldn't be possible without Model S, and to some extent, Model X. Model S demonstrated that Tesla could compete with the big automakers. Without Model S, Tesla would not have been able to raise capital for expansion.

Not even sure where this "soonish" M3 Part 2 idea is coming from when The Man himself said it will be close to production. My bet: Just before the design studio opens.
And yes, the HUD theory seems very probable and I also think an imminent S/X refresh will take placeand it will be offered.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This isn't a car company filling out a product line. This is a tech company with a next generation product. I have a Mac II system unit in my attic that cost about $15K in today's dollars.

(1) Yes, it is. (2) Poor analogy. iPad didn't kill iPhone or Mac. Different capabilities for different needs.

Look at all the conventional thinking. Why was it that Tesla didn't continue building the Roadster?

Any company has limited resources, and roadsters are an extremely low-volume specialty product in the car business. It wouldn't make sense for Tesla to deploy engineering, supply chain, and manufacturing resources to a car which doesn't address a large market when Tesla's objective is to expand its customer base.

This is like asking why Honda doesn't continue building the S2000.

 

[Irishjugg]

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp.

I'm assuming Tesla doesn't have the capacity to get superHUD into the S/X before model 3 release. I assume this is why Musk keeps telling S/X owners how much he appreciates their support.

Tesla may not have planned for UI 2.0 to go into the Model 3 first. It may have been targeted in the model X.

The ghosting in the model X windshield may be a HUD lamination layer, as I suggested in another thread.

I don't think model 3 will cannibalize S/X much if at all, so I think that far is overblown. Me personally, getting my model 3 unless my finances are in such a place that I trade my reservation for a model S or X instead, so it won't be cannibalizing me.

 

[Johan]

I don't think model 3 will cannibalize S/X much if at all, so I think that far is overblown. Me personally, getting my model 3 unless my finances are in such a place that I trade my reservation for a model S or X instead, so it won't be cannibalizing me.

It's a good thing definitely not to eat one self.

 

[electracity]

And yes, the HUD theory seems very probable and I also think an imminent S/X refresh will take placeand it will be offered.

Yes, I'm sure that was the original plan. But now I'm not sure if Tesla has the capacity to pull it off before the model 3 is released. Almost every technology release from Tesla happens later than expected.

The massively superior value of the Model S over the Roadster was perceived in 2012. Not sure why the model 3 isn't perceived as a repeat. Perhaps it is the $1000 car payments.

 

[Johan]

Yes, I'm sure that was the original plan. But now I'm not sure if Tesla has the capacity to pull it off before the model 3 is released. Almost every technology release from Tesla happens later than expected.

The massively superior value of the Model S over the Roadster was perceived in 2012. Not sure why the model 3 isn't perceived as a repeat. Perhaps it is the $1000 car payments.

... Or maybe it's because you can get three for the price of one?

Also sure every technology from Tesla happens later than expected [buy you] such as autopilot very 1.0 which was super late [according to you] and the Model X [which was super delayed according to you].

 

[FredTMC]

Just out:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - 13F From George Soros Shows New Stake In Tesla

No reaction in stock, but personally I'd pay attention to Soros even moreso than Buffet. I believe the last time he had a stake in Tesla was Q3 2014 when he sold out.

Thx!

Couldn't read the article. is it disclosed how many shares he has ?

TSLA is up over $209 in AH

 

[SPadival]

Not even sure where this "soonish" M3 Part 2 idea is coming from when The Man himself said it will be close to production.

Interesting. When did EM say that? Do you have the source handy?

 

[dha]

Interesting. When did EM say that? Do you have the source handy?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Jayjs20]

That's a little strange, price is drifting upward throughout AH. Normally, it stays flat.

 

[FredTMC]

That's a little strange, price is drifting upward throughout AH. Normally, it stays flat.

Soros 13F shows a new position in TSLA. Haven't seen the details yet

Thanks Jesselivermore for posting

 

[Papafox]

Soros 13F shows a new position in TSLA. Haven't seen the details yet

Thanks Jesselivermore for posting

Here's a chart of today's after-hours trading, that shows upward pressure on SP:
Daily TSLA Trading Charts

 

[JRP3]

I seldom put credence in anything on Seeking Alpha, but Randy Carlson just posted his best ever, IMHO, especially the innovations part.

Enjoy and comment upon:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975416-tesla-model-3-wins-innovative-simplicity#alt2

As I commented there, I think Randy is quite wrong about the air cooled pack and definitely wrong about the pack size being only 44kWh. Also though I didn't mention it there I think he's over selling the HUD technology.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The massively superior value of the Model S over the Roadster was perceived in 2012. Not sure why the model 3 isn't perceived as a repeat. Perhaps it is the $1000 car payments.

(1) Model S is a class size larger than Model 3. Some people simply prefer larger cars, for whatever reason. They may need more space, or they may simply want the prestige of the bigger car. More massive cars are perceived to be safer, and empirical data suggests that they are indeed safer (Find the safest cars and vehicles and the most dangerous cars and vehicles) . BMW sells the 5-series and 3-series concurrently with no problem. Honda has the Accord for those who want a large sedan, and Civic for those who want a sportier compact.

(2) Model S does have notable practical advantages over the Model 3 prototype. Model S has a liftback rather than a trunk. It's cargo capacity is much bigger with rear seats up. With rear seats down, Model S has an even bigger advantage when it comes to boxes and taller cargo.

The reasons someone might choose a Model S over a Model 3 could be based on practicalities (like interior volume, safety) and/or emotional factors (like prestige, perception of safety, or comfort with vehicle size).

The tldr; of it is that cars, especially at the higher end, are not purchased on price :: performance ratio alone.

Where the Roadster is concerned, Model S is considered a bigger jump because (a) it is a practical car (b) Supercharging network compatibility makes it viable for complete ICE replacement. Model 3 is not a jump in the utility sense. It is a jump forward in affordability.