Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Drax7]

A very small data point just from myself: In observing my local Tesla Store (somewhere East of the Mississippi River), there is an entire row of recently transported Model X which look like they are being prepared for delivery. There were also several more Model X scattered around the parking lot and/or plugged into the HPWCs.

What are people observing on the ground at their local stores?

I think the delivery pipelines are finally opening up this quarter, although we won't know for sure until early July how the bigger picture is looking.

At a run rate of 2000 cars per week averaging $ 100,000 per car, we are talking
$ 200,000,000 per week, not bad if you can get it. Come on Tesla and Elon make
It happen .

Production and sales make up for all the mistakes .

 

[geneclean55]

TSLA price action seems difficult to predict. However, one thing that is fairly obvious looking at the chart over the past couple years, is that the price doesn't stay in a narrow channel for long. We are nearly a couple weeks into this fairly tight range, and it seems that for whatever reason, TSLA typically only does that for 4-5 weeks max and then there is a break-out of at least 20-25 dollars in either direction.
My guess is that any more bargains on the stock can be had for a remaining 1-2 weeks. After that, we have the shareholders meeting, Inside EV report for May, Gigafactory party (hopefully), and then Q2 delivery numbers. I am hoping for some positive movement to start appearing towards the end of May. Of course, capital raise news could come out at any time.

 

[madodel]

A very small data point just from myself: In observing my local Tesla Store (somewhere East of the Mississippi River), there is an entire row of recently transported Model X which look like they are being prepared for delivery. There were also several more Model X scattered around the parking lot and/or plugged into the HPWCs.

What are people observing on the ground at their local stores?

I think the delivery pipelines are finally opening up this quarter, although we won't know for sure until early July how the bigger picture is looking.

When I was at Devon, PA for the Tesla Weekend event a couple weeks ago they had 7 Xs on the lot (mix of P90D and 90D) all set for delivery shortly. Between my X and their demo X that was the most Xs I had ever seen up to that point. Mine was the prettiest but the rest were pretty damn close. ;-)

 

[Ulmo]

A very small data point just from myself: In observing my local Tesla Store (somewhere East of the Mississippi River), there is an entire row of recently transported Model X which look like they are being prepared for delivery. There were also several more Model X scattered around the parking lot and/or plugged into the HPWCs.

What are people observing on the ground at their local stores?

I think the delivery pipelines are finally opening up this quarter, although we won't know for sure until early July how the bigger picture is looking.

That's what California experienced Q1. We had exactly as you described in many stores.

 

[Ulmo]

At a run rate of 2000 cars per week averaging $ 100,000 per car, we are talking
$ 200,000,000 per week, not bad if you can get it. Come on Tesla and Elon make
It happen .

Production and sales make up for all the mistakes .

I find it more useful to look at margin and annual.

 

[SBenson]

Based on X-VIN's and Model S delivery thread, it seems like production should be over 22,000.

Can you give us a breakdown as to how you arrived at the 22K production estimate? Will appreciate it.

 

[sundaymorning]

Meanwhile, oil is quietly inching up to $48.

 

[AlMc]

Meanwhile, oil is quietly inching up to $48.

And TSLA is quietly moving towards $200.........They do not seem to be too coupled anymore.

 

[tanner]

And TSLA is quietly moving towards $200.........They do not seem to be too coupled anymore.

I have a feeling tomorrow will be better. Today it was heavily tracking the rest of the market. Look at the bid ask spread for the close of after hours.

 

[hoang51]

TSLA price action seems difficult to predict. However, one thing that is fairly obvious looking at the chart over the past couple years, is that the price doesn't stay in a narrow channel for long. We are nearly a couple weeks into this fairly tight range, and it seems that for whatever reason, TSLA typically only does that for 4-5 weeks max and then there is a break-out of at least 20-25 dollars in either direction.
My guess is that any more bargains on the stock can be had for a remaining 1-2 weeks. After that, we have the shareholders meeting, Inside EV report for May, Gigafactory party (hopefully), and then Q2 delivery numbers. I am hoping for some positive movement to start appearing towards the end of May. Of course, capital raise news could come out at any time.

So any short term price movements can be laid out as follows:
May 31, 2016: Shareholder's meeting.
June 30, 2016 (est): Gigafactory party.
August 3, 2016 (est): Q2Y16 production numbers.
September, 2016 (est): Q2Y16 earnings conference.
By end of 1HY17, second reveal of Model 3.

July 2016 might be a sideways trading month. As time goes by, I'm thinking that any capital raise would happen in September 2016 or onwards, as it seems Q2Y16 results may be favorable.

 

[dha]

So any short term price movements can be laid out as follows:
May 31, 2016: Shareholder's meeting.
June 30, 2016 (est): Gigafactory party.
August 3, 2016 (est): Q2Y16 production numbers.
September, 2016 (est): Q2Y16 earnings conference.
By end of 1HY17, second reveal of Model 3.

July 2016 might be a sideways trading month. As time goes by, I'm thinking that any capital raise would happen in September 2016 or onwards, as it seems Q2Y16 results may be favorable.

Q2 production / delivery figures will be revealed in the first week of July, not August. And Q2 earnings should be in late July or early August.

 

[Xpert]

And if it breaks 205, it's going to keep going down

Low volume today, nothing to worry about. $200 also a huge resistance usually, if $205 fails.

 

[tanner]

Low volume today, nothing to worry about. $200 also a huge resistance usually, if $205 fails.

Yeah. Hoping we have a strong open tomorrow so I can exit and re-enter if it tests 200 after that.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Dumb question, what is a reasonable range of volumes? What would constitute low, vs medium, vs. high? Are there absolute numbers?

I'm guessing it will vary given the lifetime of a particular stock?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Ok to answer my own question. I googled it! Here's the best answer I could find:

What is considered high or low when talking about volume?

 

[Hogfighter]

We are range bound to drifting slightly lower until investors are convinced that TM has the money to back up their very aggressive ramp plans for the model 3. We all know (IMO) that this aggressive ramp will require more money. Whether TM can do this through organic growth which, IMO, it can't OR it gets the funding preferably (IMO) through the issuance of debt or (less optimal choice IMO) underwriting of sale of more stock.

edit: Personally, I liquidated 2/3 of my trading stock to slowly acquire more DITM J17/18 $150 leaps.

Thanks for your insight. It's always interesting seeing what strategy everyone is using. I was writing covered calls, but stopped and now just have stock. No LEAPs, but if we go much below 200 I'll get back into the Jan '18 inm calls.

It's so much easier to trade when the price gets way too high or way too low. I'm a little concerned about Marco and how his summer plans look....

 

[ev-enthusiast]

A little green in Europe during morning trading.

 

[Renaud]

And dark green in pre-market with a bit more activity/volume than what we used to have so early in the morning.
I'm ok with that.

 

[demetri]

GS upgrade!!! Don't know details yet, but it's a catalyst we need to break out.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Today the German government finally decided on subsidies for EVs (google translate).

Subsidies will be paid for a new car purchase (4000EUR for an EV, 3000 for a PHEV). The subsidies could be paid as soon as in a few weeks. There should be enough money to subsidise the purchase of about 400 000 vehicles. The program will end June 30th 2019.

Please do not miss a very bad detail, thank's to German car lobby:
Vehicles for more than 60000EUR do not get the new car purchase subsidies!

Personally, I call this the anti Tesla law
I have the impression that German car manufacturers want to get subsidies for their range of new PHEV that they have developed recently.
I think it is things like this that will very soon have a bad impact on the German car manufacturers. Once again they get a little help from the government to keep their eyes closed so that they do not have to see and feel the real competition from Tesla.