Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Intl Professor]

Just as an interesting point of calibration. There appears to be the notion amongst traditional auto industry analysts and executives that a car with a higher sticker price is automatically a car in a higher price class - independent of the class of the actual vehicle in terms of size, performance and sophistication.

snip

This does not work across technologies. A new technology such as a highway capable fully electric vehicle hits the reset button on the efficacy of nuanced marketing and advertising and what matters prior to saturation of a new technology is performance on key metrics and price.

Nobody is going to care for a fancy badged EV from any manufacturer if it has poor range, poor acceleration, poor driving characteristics, poor safety, inadequate size, poor cabin technology and poor access to highway charging when price-matched with the Tesla Model S and X and the Tesla Model 3.

Raising the price and ploughing cash into fancy advertising won't help address relative deficiencies in these areas. As for the $37,500 GM Bolt and numerous other compliance EVs at a similar and sometimes higher prices with even less range. Part of the reason why GM seems to imagine it will be a worthy competitor to the Tesla Model 3 will be based on expert opinion of the same caliber that drove the ELR into the wall.

One cannot apply traditional auto industry expertise to the electrification of transport (and hence the TSLA stock). Wrong frame of reference altogether.

Perhaps at long last the age of plastic is ending in our culture and people are beginning to demand the real thing and not just platitudes from people in public life across the board. Admittedly long haul yet to come. What was it Churchill said, "not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning," or some such.

 

[skljsd329832]

Can you explain what the point is of you trying to claim you have a perfect track record with your TSLA price action calls? This is a serious question I'm asking. I'm not trying to just stir an argument.

Just to help with root cause analysis can you provide some other examples of recorded fact you argue with?

 

[DaveT]

Just to help with root cause analysis can you provide some other examples of recorded fact you argue with?

It appears that you're claiming a perfect track record with predicting TSLA price action. Is this accurate? Or am I mistaken?

 

[skljsd329832]

It appears that you're claiming a perfect track record with predicting TSLA price action. Is this accurate? Or am I mistaken?

Both.

Yes the facts are on the record precisely as stated.

Yes you are fundamentally mistaken to question recorded fact.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It appears that you're claiming a perfect track record with predicting TSLA price action. Is this accurate? Or am I mistaken?

Dave, I would prefer if you move this discussion to another thread. I personally do not understand why you feel that answer to the question you posed is important.

I value Julian posts for a unique analytical insight into technical and business aspects, not so much for the specific calls on TSLA price movements. He has been under the barrage of attacks from quite a few on this Forum, which I believe are not justified, and IMO have more to do with the visceral response to his style, rather than essence of what is being said. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that he feels the need to defend his record.

 

[DaveT]

Dave, I would prefer if you move this discussion to another thread. I personally do not understand why you feel that answer to the question you posed is important.

I value Julian posts for a unique analytical insight into technical and business aspects, not so much for the specific calls on TSLA price movements. He has been under the barrage of attacks from quite a few on this Forum, which I believe are not justified, and IMO have more to do with the visceral response to his style, rather than essence of what is being said. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that he feels the need to defend his record.

Sorry, if my posts seem off-topic here. Julian initiated the discussion by posting a list of his TSLA short-term price action calls a few days ago. I agree that the discussion should be on another thread, probably his own. But if somebody claims a perfect record on TSLA short-term price action on this thread, then I'm going to question it.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Dave, I would prefer if you move this discussion to another thread. I personally do not understand why you feel that answer to the question you posed is important.

I value Julian posts for a unique analytical insight into technical and business aspects, not so much for the specific calls on TSLA price movements. He has been under the barrage of attacks from quite a few on this Forum, which I believe are not justified, and IMO have more to do with the visceral response to his style, rather than essence of what is being said. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that he feels the need to defend his record.

I, for one, would appreciate it if he didn't defend himself so vigorously. Although I defended him once against PerfectLogic's accusations, PL wasn't completely wrong. Julian had made bad calls before (think jesselivemore and his concerns of macro economics), and his defense of his record just comes across as arrogant. I know this comment should/would get thrown into snippiness, but I just couldn't stand seeing another one of Julian's "self-defense" and stay silent anymore.

And just to make the mod's job harder, here's a wonderful rebuttal of a recent SA piece that Musk profitted from TSLA's secondary offering: Debunking the story that Elon Musk "kept cash" from the recent stock offering

 

[DaveT]

Thank you.

@DaveT

I have laid down a consistent clear an unequivocal record of "perfect calls". There are no "imperfect calls" in between. No "cherry picking", no excuse whatsoever to question my integrity on this subject in any way. Let alone repeatedly after you have had your answer.

In fact what is posted in between each of a long series of "perfect calls" is full disclosure of the analysis that made each "perfect call" possible. This is what has made each "perfect call" intelligible and independently actionable for anyone with the skill and judgement to conclude that each call was in fact "perfect" before the fact.

This is a long series recorded facts that is not up for debate. I would ask you please to cease your repeated questioning which is misguided, and potentially misleading to others. You have your answer and regardless of your opinion the facts cannot be changed to fit your narrative. Kindly cease and desist and let that be an end to it.

First, mods please feel free to move this discussion over to Julian's thread. That's probably the better place for it to be.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by a record of perfect calls. How do you explain the numerous times back in January when you predicted a massive short squeeze in February that never happened?

For the record, I'm not saying that you have a poor record of predicting TSLA short-term price action... just surprised about the claim of having a perfect track record when I can't even get TSLA short-term price action correct half the time.

 

[Papafox]

This article from our friends at Electrek suggests Tesla raised MORE than expected. $1.7B rather than ~$1.4B

I did see any SEC filing today but didn't read it

Looks as if they WERE actually oversubscribed and that the overwriters sold the additional optional shares.

Tesla (TSLA) closed its stock offering with $1.7 billion in net proceeds to finance the Model 3 program

If Tesla sold not only all its stock but also the oversubscription, this is news that could impact trading tomorrow, no? We expected the full $1.4B to be sold, but the sale of the over-subscription as well indicates not only an additional $300M in the bank but also a healthy appetite for Tesla offerings. It's a vote of confidence by the big dogs.

 

[skljsd329832]

I, for one, would appreciate it if he didn't defend himself so vigorously. Although I defended him once against PerfectLogic's accusations, PL wasn't completely wrong. Julian had made bad calls before (think jesselivemore and his concerns of macro economics), and his defense of his record just comes across as arrogant. I know this comment should/would get thrown into snippiness, but I just couldn't stand seeing another one of Julian's "self-defense" and stay silent anymore.

And just to make the mod's job harder, here's a wonderful rebuttal of a recent SA piece that Musk profitted from TSLA's secondary offering: Debunking the story that Elon Musk "kept cash" from the recent stock offering

I absolutely do not wish to rehash this any longer. @jesselivenomore and I disagreed because he was wrong to encourage people to sell on long term macro concerns which I argued correctly was a short term news cycle event from which Tesla could not defend itself in a quiet period before Q4 "15 ER but would nevertheless recover strongly thereafter. Which of course it did and the macro news cycle blew over too.

There are some that seek to misremember those events which included my trying to defend TSLA shareholders from being spooked out of their holdings as encouragement to buy. Those that sold out of long term holdings at the bottom were mislead - and certainly not by me - but very much so by those arguing with me at that time.

As you will also know had you paid attention without undue cynicism, some actually indicated their gratitude for the support not to bail at the bottom.

Nevertheless, I have since chosen clearer language to prevent such misrememberings, yet to play along with false insinuations would to be dishonest - that is a line I cannot be who I am and cross even if the alternatives are uncomfortable.

 

[Intl Professor]

I wasn't actually talking about you specifically, so no need to hyperventilate. Next time feel free to ask for clarification if you aren't sure or if I've failed to be clear.

The bear argument was to be scared of those things I mentioned and now the bear argument is to be scared of the what you mentioned. The contradiction is ridiculous.

I'll assume you've just had a bad day.

SBenson post deleted, direct attack on a member. Krugerrand response a marginal case.

 

[Intl Professor]

Everything else - whatever

This bit - agreed. Moving on..

Eloquent and welcome retreat.

 

[Intl Professor]

"Both" doesn't make sense as an answer. Can you clarify: Are you claiming a perfect track record with predicting TSLA price action?

Stop the ping pong. I'm getting a sore neck.

 

[tander]

Can anyone tell me where I could find the monthly sales numbers for previous months? I know where to find the WSJ auto sales but it seems to only be in the present month. Moreover does the roughly 10,000 YTD sales on that list not include leased vehicles I assume?

 

[Causalien]

Case in point would be FoxConn

Hmmm. That'd be a bad pairing for TSLA. Apple + Foxconn means autonomous EV is possible.

 

[skljsd329832]

First, mods please feel free to move this discussion over to Julian's thread. That's probably the better place for it to be.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by a record of perfect calls. How do you explain the numerous times back in January when you predicted a massive short squeeze in February that never happened?

For the record, I'm not saying that you have a poor record of predicting TSLA short-term price action... just surprised about the claim of having a perfect track record when I can't even get TSLA short-term price action correct half the time.

I don't know how I can explain it better to someone determined not to understand.

Yes I foresaw and explained the circumstances for the $100+ mid Feb to April up leg (call it a squeeze or whatever description best serves) from well before the entire January to mid February panic occurred.

China suspending trading, oil falling off a cliff and the threat of the FED going haywire changed the basis price of that up leg. So I tracked the down leg while providing clarity of the ensuing up leg.

And?

My biggest mistake, which I have since sought to correct is that adding actionable analysis to an investment forum would be generally if not universally appreciated amongst people like you that are philosophically supportive of Tesla and trying to make money.

What excuse do you have to complain of being unable to get the short term price action right half the time when all you had to do these past five months was read a forum where the answer has been sitting all along to this day? And now you want to fight about it? Give me a break!

 

[azaz]

It's so arrogant, dangerous and irresponsible how Julian acts about his stock forecasting abilities

Wasn't he going on and on that they wouldn't do an equity raise till Q2?

 

[sundaymorning]

@DaveT

Let's forget Julian for a minute, what is your prediction for the next 30 days barring economic catastrophies or euphoria?

 

[Papafox]

Intl Professor- you should ask for a raise.

 

[Fallenone]

Dave, I would prefer if you move this discussion to another thread. I personally do not understand why you feel that answer to the question you posed is important.

I value Julian posts for a unique analytical insight into technical and business aspects, not so much for the specific calls on TSLA price movements. He has been under the barrage of attacks from quite a few on this Forum, which I believe are not justified, and IMO have more to do with the visceral response to his style, rather than essence of what is being said. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that he feels the need to defend his record.

I have no problem with any individual claiming a perfect track record of calling the stock, even it needs some explanations after several months to justify the perfection. But, mixing this and promoting a for profit consultancy company here is not something I prefer to happen. Just my two cents. I have my ignore list to take care of my end anyway.