Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[techmaven]

I think the greater market does not expect that the Model X is shipping in any sort of real volume. Therefore, the InsideEVs monthly estimates as well as the GoodCarBadCar estimates might be a surprise on June 1st or 2nd.

Initial Model X deliveries in China could help, especially in volume.

There's been a lot of FUD wrt Tesla's ability to scale. I suspect solid progress in that regard will make a big difference.

 

[SBenson]

I found it interesting that a short while back @maoing (or it could have been @Fallenone, sorry if I'm mixing it up) posted in this very thread that he had heard first hand info from an early X buyer in China that they were told their Model X is "on a boat on its way to China" while I'm hearing first hand from friends here in Europe, and reading on domestic boards, that no early X buyers here in Europe have gotten any such info. This could indicate (nothing definitive of course) that they are prioritizing China for X deliveries over EU. There could be many reasons for this, for example that homologation has taken longer in the EU, but it could also be because they have more orders from China than from the EU, a high cancellation rate in the EU perhaps. In the bigger scheme of things I've been saying for the last couple of months that it's my personal opinioin that MX was designed with China in mind rather than the EU so in that regard it would make sense to press for MX to be introduced to China first. Having X deliveries take off in China could be the long awaited spark for the Chinese market?

China getting priority over Europe on X is long known and reported (no need to guess)

Tesla Shifts Gears to Send Model X SUVs to China Before Europe -- Published by Bloomberg on Feb 3rd.

Add:
More recently Forbes published an article on May 13 with this headline: "Tesla Model X Launched On The Chinese Car Market".

I am unable to link it somehow. Here is the most pertinent piece of info from it:

The Tesla Model X has been launched on the Chinese car market, with deliveries set to start later this month. There are three variants available: the Model X 90D, the Model X P90D, and the China-only Model X P90D Signature Red edition. The Model X 75D base model is not available in China, but might be added to the lineup later.

 

[Johan]

China getting priority over Europe on X is long known and reported (no need to guess)

Tesla Shifts Gears to Send Model X SUVs to China Before Europe -- Published by Bloomberg on Feb 3rd.

Dana Hull is a reporter who understands Tesla. I guess officially they've said deliveries will start in Q2 in China while they have never promised this for EU. Good info.

 

[electracity]

I wonder if Tesla has shipping MX showroom cars China. Delivering 50 MX to China customers doesn't seem to accomplish much. China decisions by Tesla today are presumably strategic, not tactical.

The risk of delivering actual customer MX in China appears to be the buyer attacking the car with a sledge hammer.

 

[Svetlin]

I have to apologize to our moderator and everyone else. Looks like I stirred the pot this time, prompting Julian's defense of his record in this post Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I admit, part of the reason for asking him to spell out his prediction in more detail was to be able to keep him honest in the future. But part of it was that I was actually interested in what he has to say.

I promise to not engage with Julian again, unless he claims perfection more than once per page.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Looks like TSLA is going to break above the 200 day SMA today, which is currently stands at $222.27.

 

[Causalien]

So 300k reservations. If everyone invested 1000 in Tesla it's 300 mil. If everyone invested $10 000 in tsla, that's 3 bil. Obviously this has not happened yet from the look of the stock price. So someond needs to start figuring out how to reach them and brow beat this crowd on the benefit of life improvement thst you get by joining the roller coaster

How did it go with early Model S reserve holders and the money you put into TSLA?

 

[Johan]

So 300k reservations. If everyone invested 1000 in Tesla it's 300 mil. If everyone invested $10 000 in tsla, that's 3 bil. Obviously this has not happened yet from the look of the stock price. So someond needs to start figuring out how to reach them and brow beat this crowd on the benefit of life improvement thst you get by joining the roller coaster

How did it go with early Model S reserve holders and the money you put into TSLA?

I think many Model 3 reservation makers, who aren't already Tesla owners (subtract ~50k?), are a lot less likely to invest in individual stocks at all and those who do likely don't have 10k on average to invest. It's also different entering at $220 than $30.

Still, the general idea that customers become investors is valid and important.

 

[Gerardf]

Looks like TSLA is going to break above the 200 day SMA today, which is currently stands at $222.27.

We crossed it. Now close above it

 

[Causalien]

I think many Model 3 reservation makers, who aren't already Tesla owners (subtract ~50k?), are a lot less likely to invest in individual stocks at all and those who do likely don't have 10k on average to invest. It's also different entering at $220 than $30.

Still, the general idea that customers become investors is valid and important.

Maybe a stock split will help here. It could be that they are generally not investors. The people I saw waiting in line have money. Not Model S wealthy but certainly at a point they have investments.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I do think understanding the gigafactory processes will raise SP, but not in a short time period.

Rated your post Helpful.

An understanding of gigafactory processes should indeed cause a nudge upwards in valuation expectations. If that's what happens. And it's an event in basically two dimensions.
But when one considers:

• What the minds in Hawthorne have been able to do wrt improvement of manufacturing processes, acceleration of testing/iteration/validation to end up with higher performance AND lower cost "rocket parts..." is so far beyond current committee mindsets that very smart NASA rocket scientists say that "it takes a few months of working [there at SpaceX] to adapt" to the pace and scale of improvements. It is a challenge-squared for analysts on the outside to appreciate the potential of such thinking/ such a design redesign culture...
• We saw with our own eyes footings poured, beams attached, walls raised... then walls removed, beams disappeared, footings and floor plan radically rethought, as if a "first phase" 14% construction was now going to be producing the output of Phase I and II, a structure twice the size...
• The NUMMI plant was designed by very smart people, and managed by very experienced, nay industry-leading car manufacturing efficiency experts, to crank out 500K units a year. Now in the hands of some minds in Hawthorne, and after a couple of shutdown/tear down/upgrade events, is declared with a straight face to have a 1M "possible but unadvisable" or ~700K or 800K "realistic" capacity after they played some 4D Chess Moves with it...

...well, it seems the opening of the GF chrysalis and reveal of not only the GF butterfly in its KwH-cranking glory but the whole fam damily of "GF As A Product (that you, Big Battery Vendor, or you, South American Company Between Bolivian Lithium Deposits And A Port can order from us so you can turn it on and start printing money, - or you, CyberJillionaire Foundation For Clean Energy)" will cause the following thought to occur EVERYWHERE:
"...I was valuationing Tesla as Another Car Company. I've made a terrible mistake!"

So, not an 'event' as much as an 'irreversible tipping point' in valuation thinking.

Oof. Gotta take a break to breathe. Don't mean to build text walls but them there's the thoughts.

 

[Thumper]

Secret Tesla software updates simulate new Autopilot abilities on customers' cars

 

[austinEV]

I'm struggling to come up with any reasons for the stock price to move due to the actions of Tesla anytime soon, no real news upcoming worthy of moving the needle. The shareholders meeting is a possibility, but historically unlikely, delivery numbers are still a month away, etc.

So on to macro, things are tending strongly up, do people think Tesla will follow or stay decoupled? Mir More importantly, oil is at recent highs, I personally see it taking again reasonably soon as the problems in is supply and demand curve are still here, even after several bankruptcies seem to have slowed it's Denise. Anyone think a macro run up followed by oil cash dragging TSLA down a few percent could be an interesting short term play opportunity?

Something like sell at 230 buy back at 215 when oil drags it down, or are we not coupled to oil enough lately for it to be likely to work?

I am also struggling to come up with a good reason for the stock to go up in the next 6 months due to real news. (I am long right now due to the high probability we are just at the bottom of a cyclic cycle; technicals look good). I mean one obvious opportunity would be if they actually posted good Q2 results; profit would send the stock in to the stratosphere. I am not convinced that is in the cards.

I think there is at least a $100 of valuation coming. The DEADLINE for that is the model 3 in production with real volume, adding to the financial top line in a big way. So that is, at best, mid 2018, not so far away really. I don't think the stock will suddenly jump from 220 to 320 in a day on the deadline, but when will it go up? Between now and then there is just a lot of spending, build out, risky production starts etc. There will be small to medium positives for sure, but the BIG MAMA good news will be financial receipts from model 3 that validate the long term secret plan, and permanently shift Tesla Motors from a risky upstart to a mid-major manufacturer.

Heck $200 of valuation raise is in play.

But there is a sloppy 2 year window where jumps up could happen. I know I should just buy and hold stock if I feel this is the case, but I do love leaps. But my analysis shows that even Jan '18 leaps may not be adequate, and J '17 are a real crap shoot.

PS: actually trading above the 200day SMA, let today be a jump-up revaluation day

PPS: Yes Julian is over ambitious and over zealous in defending his track record. We are all adults, who can read posts with a grain of salt. I read Julian posts like an ongoing epic poem. Not really grounded in this reality, but instructive in its own way.

 

[Curt Renz]

Maybe a stock split will help here. It could be that they are generally not investors. The people I saw waiting in line have money. Not Model S wealthy but certainly at a point they have investments.

Stock splits used to be common back in the days when brokerage commissions were elevated for trades not involving "round lots" (multiples of 100 shares). Nowadays single shares can be bought without penalty. Although you may have a point that psychologically some people might be more inclined to buy shares priced in the 20's rather than the 200's.

 

[MitchJi]

So 300k reservations. If everyone invested 1000 in Tesla it's 300 mil. If everyone invested $10 000 in tsla, that's 3 bil. Obviously this has not happened yet from the look of the stock price. So someond needs to start figuring out how to reach them and brow beat this crowd on the benefit of life improvement thst you get by joining the roller coaster

How did it go with early Model S reserve holders and the money you put into TSLA?

I strongly disagree. I think it's a huge (maybe even historic) investment opportunity. An extremely safe strategy IMO would be to hold stock now, and watch for a good entry point after November to move into Jan19 LEAPS. But I also think it makes sense to have a plan B, hence the J19's vs J18's. Almost as safe as shooting fish in a barrel. I hope to post detailed reasons later.
Note:
I'm personally following a more risky strategy of holding(just purchased) J18 289 strike LEAPS now, paid an average of $21.85. I'll be looking for a good time to either move to cash or shares, and eventually to J19 LEAPS.

There's a synergy between buying a M3 and safely investing in TSLA. If you assume that Tesla will survive and you are going to get your M3, the worst thing that can happen is that there's a long delay, because when Tesla ramps production the SP will increase.

So if you are saving for an M3 a delay means that you won't need the money until the M3 ramps successfully, which is required before you will be able to get your M3.

 

[electracity]

What the minds in Hawthorne have been able to do wrt improvement of manufacturing processes, acceleration of testing/iteration/validation

You are way off the mark if you think SpaceX has some sort of mastery of manufacturing that is transferrable to Tesla. SpaceX is competing against quasi-governmental rocket building that had little incentive to go fast and cheap. The state of auto manufacturing is very different. Tesla buys auto manufacturing experience by hiring people from the very competent and ultra competitive old auto industry.

Tesla's large manufacturing innovation will likely be in the gigafactory. The likely size of the gigafactory in 2018 suggests to me that they are emphasising finish pack assembly automation before cell production. Cells can probably be made elsewhere to supplement the gigafactory. Packs from a highly automated process may not be buildable elsewhere.

I don't believe Tesla wants to be the most cost efficient cell maker in the world. They likely are striving to have a clear advantage at total pack cost, including Tesla Energy products.

 

[Fallenone]

I wonder if Tesla has shipping MX showroom cars China. Delivering 50 MX to China customers doesn't seem to accomplish much. China decisions by Tesla today are presumably strategic, not tactical.

The risk of delivering actual customer MX in China appears to be the buyer attacking the car with a sledge hammer.

They have one (or two, can't remember correctly) Model X touring all the showrooms ATM, staying for a few days at each showroom.

 

[Fallenone]

I found it interesting that a short while back @maoing (or it could have been @Fallenone, sorry if I'm mixing it up) posted in this very thread that he had heard first hand info from an early X buyer in China that they were told their Model X is "on a boat on its way to China" while I'm hearing first hand from friends here in Europe, and reading on domestic boards, that no early X buyers here in Europe have gotten any such info. This could indicate (nothing definitive of course) that they are prioritizing China for X deliveries over EU. There could be many reasons for this, for example that homologation has taken longer in the EU, but it could also be because they have more orders from China than from the EU, a high cancellation rate in the EU perhaps. In the bigger scheme of things I've been saying for the last couple of months that it's my personal opinioin that MX was designed with China in mind rather than the EU so in that regard it would make sense to press for MX to be introduced to China first. Having X deliveries take off in China could be the long awaited spark for the Chinese market?

It was me who posted that. Those early buyers were given a table to tick the options they want one by one sometime in Feb/Mar this year.

 

[Fallenone]

I am also struggling to come up with a good reason for the stock to go up in the next 6 months due to real news. (I am long right now due to the high probability we are just at the bottom of a cyclic cycle; technicals look good). I mean one obvious opportunity would be if they actually posted good Q2 results; profit would send the stock in to the stratosphere. I am not convinced that is in the cards.

I think there is at least a $100 of valuation coming. The DEADLINE for that is the model 3 in production with real volume, adding to the financial top line in a big way. So that is, at best, mid 2018, not so far away really. I don't think the stock will suddenly jump from 220 to 320 in a day on the deadline, but when will it go up? Between now and then there is just a lot of spending, build out, risky production starts etc. There will be small to medium positives for sure, but the BIG MAMA good news will be financial receipts from model 3 that validate the long term secret plan, and permanently shift Tesla Motors from a risky upstart to a mid-major manufacturer.

Heck $200 of valuation raise is in play.

But there is a sloppy 2 year window where jumps up could happen. I know I should just buy and hold stock if I feel this is the case, but I do love leaps. But my analysis shows that even Jan '18 leaps may not be adequate, and J '17 are a real crap shoot.

PS: actually trading above the 200day SMA, let today be a jump-up revaluation day

PPS: Yes Julian is over ambitious and over zealous in defending his track record. We are all adults, who can read posts with a grain of salt. I read Julian posts like an ongoing epic poem. Not really grounded in this reality, but instructive in its own way.

Well, there's the GF opening party (still have a lil more than a month not to be late, Inside EVs estimate of US numbers (especially Model X) for May coming out next week, their own report on Q2 deliveries early July, and a potential announcement of a partner in China before Q2 ER (I heard a few rumors going on, but nothing concrete enough to share here). Short term, real volume deliveries of Model X is a big catalysts, as it helps financials and boost confidence in their execution (or rather, alleviate the constant doubt)

 

[RubberToe]

Note:
I'm personally following a more risky strategy of holding(just purchased) J18 289 strike LEAPS now, paid an average of $21.85. I'll be looking for a good time to either move to cash or shares, and eventually to J19 LEAPS.

Holding same expiration 250's, 300's and 320's, mostly purchased shortly after (~$170) the recent dip to $149. Not sure this is riskier than trying to trade anything short term. Don't have time to try and time short term movements or watch the ticker all day. I do appreciate the info and analysis posted here though.

RT