Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GoTslaGo]

Intl Professor- you should ask for a raise.

More appropriately, you're going to need one...

 

[schonelucht]

I have no problem with any individual claiming a perfect track record of calling the stock, even it needs some explanations after several months to justify the perfection. But, mixing this and promoting a for profit consultancy company here is not something I prefer to happen. Just my two cents. I have my ignore list to take care of my end anyway.

Not to mention that it goes against point 5.n. from the terms and conducts of this website :

5. MEMBER CONDUCT

You agree to not use the Service to:

n. to either advertise or promote commercial endeavors without permission from a TMC Administrator. This includes but is not limited to direct posts, Private Messages (PMs), as well as, active links to other sites on the Internet. Direct all such requests via e-mail to a TMC Board Administrator.

If Julian actually got permission then I apologize beforehand.

 

[MitchJi]

This belong in the Long term price movement, but as is tradition - I'll post it here.

Fred Lambert at Electrek did an (as always) excellent job of reporting the main data points from Sterling Andersons (Director of Autopilot Programs, Tesla) recent talk.

I recommend watching it though to get an idea of how Tesla is approaching building the technology for level 4 autonomous driving.
If nothing else - watch it from the 20:00 mark where the interviewer asks Sterling directly whether the Model 3 will be the first commercially available autonomous vehicle.

Thank you! Very informative.

Model 3 is honestly scary. Things done in a hurry have a higher likelihood of mistakes. Mistakes at such a scale/pace can seriously cause the company to collapse on its own.

As investors it would be a fools errand to go into Model 3 launch with any kind of leverage. Hope everyone is investing only the amounts they can afford to lose and/or plan to trim well ahead of the launch.

I strongly disagree. I think it's a huge (maybe even historic) investment opportunity. An extremely safe strategy IMO would be to hold stock now, and watch for a good entry point after November to move into Jan19 LEAPS. But I also think it makes sense to have a plan B, hence the J19's vs J18's. Almost as safe as shooting fish in a barrel. I hope to post detailed reasons later.

Note:
I'm personally following a more risky strategy of holding(just purchased) J18 289 strike LEAPS now, paid an average of $21.85. I'll be looking for a good time to either move to cash or shares, and eventually to J19 LEAPS.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

... For the record, I'm not saying that you have a poor record of predicting TSLA short-term price action... just surprised about the claim of having a perfect track record when I can't even get TSLA short-term price action correct half the time.

Honestly, Julian is someone who is at least trying to predict short term stock price movements here in this thread. It is definitely a big value to have his expertise and his point of view posted black on white in this thread. Personally this actually helps me a lot with my investment decisions. Most posts in this tread do no longer even remotely care about possible short term stock price movements! This is very sad.
And BTW nobody on this planet is perfect, nobody.
And to my opinion it would be very wrong to criticize one of the very few persons here that still do try to predict short term stock price movements!
Looks like unnecessary cherry picking to me:
- perfect track record
- most calls are correct
Just apply a longer time frame for holding your shares for Julian's calls or buy options with some more time till expiry and you're fine!
Personally I want to thank Julian for his time and effort that he is spending here, thank you Julian!

 

[WarpedOne]

Personally I want to thank Julian for his time and effort that he is spending here, thank you Julian!

+1000

@everone offended by Julians words:
Post better predictions or STFU

 

[madodel]

Not to mention that it goes against point 5.n. from the terms and conducts of this website :



If Julian actually got permission then I apologize beforehand.

As I recall he switched accounts because his personal account stopped working and people asked what ev-volumes was. Then the trolls kept attacking him and he responded with his past record. If people would just stop questioning him and state their own opinions/prophesy then a large amount of the noise would stop. For people who can't do that then just block his posts. I ignore a lot of his tomes but he has interesting opinions.

 

[SPadival]

This is a good general background piece on the state of the art before Tesla got there from an author that is generally considerably more unfair and unbalanced concerning Tesla than this piece, which was essentially excellent and balanced - at least in the way it posed the question without overly presuming the answers.

The key takeaways of merit that I got from it was the estimation of a 12 month cycle for bodywork panel dies, typically produced in Korea and the reminder that Tesla owns a too and die firm in Michigan. Musk's stretch target of 9 months does not seem overly unreasonable and I find the author's estimate of the number of stamped panels required to be excessive - probably ICE specific.

The author's suggestion that a vehicles engine, exhaust, brakes and brake lines is installed in three minutes raised some eyebrows with me. I am not directly familiar with tac times on this but the author's statement does not meet the test of reasonable expectations - or it essentially invites the reader to overlook a number of steps that take considerably longer to complete. For example exhaust heat shields, vibration dampers, engine bay firewall materials and sound-proofing, pipe-work and electrical connections brake fluid installation, brake line fastenings hose fastenings, wire harness fastenings, straps, covers and so on. If it takes much less than an hour to install an entire ICE drivetrain and brake system so that no more installation work is required to complete this "3 minute step" according to this author, then that would be stunning process efficiency in my opinion. In other words I expect the author is out by a factor of 20. 10 to be generous, whereas installing a battery (the author's choice of comparison) in 2013 for the Model S really did take three minutes or thereabouts, even manually with a manually controlled lift and a couple of guys with torque drivers as seen on Nat Geo on Youtube. There was also an unnecessary reference to battery swap station technology. There is no reason to imagine that production line equipment would not be dedicated assembly line equipment: A pick and place lift robot and a bolt driver and not a machine dedicated to replacing a vehicle battery while it stands on its road tires on a ramp. I suspect this reference to battery swap betrays a lack of objectivity.

Perhaps the most key error of assumption (or at least conflict of information) that I got from it was the notion that the Model 3 shown on the 31st March was an Alpha or a "Mule". For starters the drive train was production spec as a known datapoint. Secondly on Q1 ER design finalization was stated to be six weeks away. Naturally the vehicles looked great and besides some minor feedback for example the presentation of a Tesla logo on the front in falcon-beak chrome strip - achieved an extremely positive customer response (not exactly a rash of cancellations from those that had received it sight unseen - more like an extra 250,000 reservations in short order).

A secondary conflict of information concerned a long section of the article concerning the paint shop. While the author discusses possible ways and means he appears to be leading the conclusion that the paint shop is not big enough. Tesla says that it has capacity for 500K vehicles annually.

A tertiary conflict of information is to insinuate that 200K steady state unit capacity is about it for Fremont. Tesla's is on record that they expect to be able to push Fremont to over 600,000 unit production (Closer to 650K annual unit capacity from memory). It does not really matter what the author has got wrong in this regard. However the most likely explanation is advancements in robotics and processes and enormous amounts of additional Tesla-leased factory and warehousing space in proximity to Fremont for stores and subassemblies.

What is effectively a known error on the author's part is to state that Tesla's MX and MS is using the former NUMMI "truck line". This is simply incorrect. Those lines may be occupying a similar location on the factory floor, maybe not but that is irrelevant. The Tesla assembly line (as distinct from the common stamping line) has essentially nothing and no equipment or process in common with a former GM truck line.

Thanks. I had almost identical sentiment on reading Funk's article, but couldn't validate it as I didn't have the technical expertise.

Your posts are informative and welcome. We are all adults here and we can tell when you are selling your book - so its fine by me.

 

[vgrinshpun]

If Tesla sold not only all its stock but also the oversubscription, this is news that could impact trading tomorrow, no? We expected the full $1.4B to be sold, but the sale of the over-subscription as well indicates not only an additional $300M in the bank but also a healthy appetite for Tesla offerings. It's a vote of confidence by the big dogs.

The Underwriters indeed exercised their option to buy additional shares in full, and all the money changed hands yesterday. The Form 8-K filed yesterday states:

"In addition, the Company granted the Underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 1,395,348 shares of Common Stock. The Underwriters notified the Company of the exercise in full of their option to purchase the additional shares on May 23, 2016, and the Offering, including the sale of shares of Common Stock subject to the Underwriters’ option, closed on May 25, 2016.

The net proceeds from the Offering to the Company were approximately $1.7 billion, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses."

Rationally, there should be some reaction from the Market to the oversubscription, but realistically I do not expect it.

 

[Bgarret]

Good piece profiling a leading battery expert at Argonne Labs about the likelihood of a "super-battery" replacing existing Li-Ion batteries any time soon. I'll bury the lead - slim to no chance.

Lithium-Ion Will Be Tough To Beat, Says Argonne Battery Whiz

Makes me wonder what would happen if Bill Gates, instead of holding Billions of $ in commitments to "rapidly commercialize" the next Green Energy breakthrough - fusion, super-battery, couple of hamsters on a fly- wheel operating on a frictionless plane, powering the world.....whatever; if he took those commitments and used them to fund a couple gigafactories, electric cars, stationary storage - maybe we wouldn't sit around for a decade we can't afford waiting for the tooth fairy of green technology to slip fusion under our pillow while we sleep and instead move much more rapidly toward electric transportation and rapid adoption of renewable energy.

Anyone have Billy's number - might have to give him a ring.

 

[Intl Professor]

More appropriately, you're going to need one...

I can always look for the resign button. Sometimes I think the programmer of the site uses a lot of machine learning. Is that you, Samaritan?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I can always look for the resign button.

They didn't tell you?

Each time you hit that button it adds another forum for you to moderate... It's the Re-Sign-Up button

 

[electracity]

Makes me wonder what would happen if Bill Gates, instead of holding Billions of $ in commitments to "rapidly commercialize" the next Green Energy breakthrough

Not his thing. He has been looking for a Miracle since windows 3.1

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Does anybody think that the small autopilot incident in Switzerland might have a negative impact on today's price action?

 

[Intl Professor]

Sorry, if my posts seem off-topic here. Julian initiated the discussion by posting a list of his TSLA short-term price action calls a few days ago. I agree that the discussion should be on another thread, probably his own. But if somebody claims a perfect record on TSLA short-term price action on this thread, then I'm going to question it.

I find offensive any defensive argument like "others do it." With due reference to Jon Stewart, it's man-baby talk. Of course you have a complaint, but....

 

[Irishjugg]

It's so arrogant, dangerous and irresponsible how Julian acts about his stock forecasting abilities

Wasn't he going on and on that they wouldn't do an equity raise till Q2?

Agreed, dude constantly re writes history to suit some self aggrandizrd version of himself then had the audacity to tell people calling him out on it that they are out of line.
Julian has made several good calls on the price action (though honestly, the run up from Feb want wasn't exactly rocket science, the whole board was pointing out how absurd the downswing was), and he has made some bad calls as well. That's fine, but pretending he hasn't, or hand waving it away with "unforseen circumstances" is disingenuous. If there weren't unforseen circumstances we would all be able to predict price like, 99% of the time, those are the whole point.

I'm a bit disturbed that our friendly mod (doing a great job generally btw) seems unconcerned about that and has often shown desire to sort of protect Julian on this.

Anyway, this has all be rehashed to hell and back. Julian over represents his perfection, people point out he isn't perfect (which is absolutely fine mind you, no one is perfect) and Julian shoots back a nuh-uh I am prefect. None of it matters really.

 

[electracity]

What major events could drive stock price other than the model 3 release? I have:

1) Next Gen autopilot/MCU/GUI for S/X
2) China manufacturing deal with partner
3) Uber-esque deal/announcement

Negatives

1) Macro
2) S/X upgrade not synced with model 3

If potential S/X buyers are smart they will realize that the model 3 reveal has to be the switch to next gen model S/X components and probably a new GUI for new cars.

I do not think that Tesla will update the GUI on current cars.

I do think understanding the gigafactory processes will raise SP, but not in a short time period.

 

[Johan]

I found it interesting that a short while back @maoing (or it could have been @Fallenone, sorry if I'm mixing it up) posted in this very thread that he had heard first hand info from an early X buyer in China that they were told their Model X is "on a boat on its way to China" while I'm hearing first hand from friends here in Europe, and reading on domestic boards, that no early X buyers here in Europe have gotten any such info. This could indicate (nothing definitive of course) that they are prioritizing China for X deliveries over EU. There could be many reasons for this, for example that homologation has taken longer in the EU, but it could also be because they have more orders from China than from the EU, a high cancellation rate in the EU perhaps. In the bigger scheme of things I've been saying for the last couple of months that it's my personal opinioin that MX was designed with China in mind rather than the EU so in that regard it would make sense to press for MX to be introduced to China first. Having X deliveries take off in China could be the long awaited spark for the Chinese market?

 

[Irishjugg]

Agreed, dude constantly re writes history to suit some self aggrandizrd version of himself then had the audacity to tell people calling him out on it that they are out of line.
Julian has made several good calls on the price action (though honestly, the run up from Feb want wasn't exactly rocket science, the whole board was pointing out how absurd the downswing was), and he has made some bad calls as well. That's fine, but pretending he hasn't, or hand waving it away with "unforseen circumstances" is disingenuous. If there weren't unforseen circumstances we would all be able to predict price like, 99% of the time, those are the whole point.

I'm a bit disturbed that our friendly mod (doing a great job generally btw) seems unconcerned about that and has often shown desire to sort of protect Julian on this.

Anyway, this has all be rehashed to hell and back. Julian over represents his perfection, people point out he isn't perfect (which is absolutely fine mind you, no one is perfect) and Julian shoots back a nuh-uh I am prefect. None of it matters really.

I need to add, Julian, your posts are very useful and you have excellent detailed information and reasoning for your projections. The only thing some members here have problems with are when you claim a prefect record over any period of time. If you didn't do that, I don't think anyone would have a single issue with you.
For my part, I'm done complaining about it, you are an adult who can do whatever he wants and there is no point in me trying to convince you to live or behave differently.

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm struggling to come up with any reasons for the stock price to move due to the actions of Tesla anytime soon, no real news upcoming worthy of moving the needle. The shareholders meeting is a possibility, but historically unlikely, delivery numbers are still a month away, etc.

So on to macro, things are tending strongly up, do people think Tesla will follow or stay decoupled? Mir More importantly, oil is at recent highs, I personally see it taking again reasonably soon as the problems in is supply and demand curve are still here, even after several bankruptcies seem to have slowed it's Denise. Anyone think a macro run up followed by oil cash dragging TSLA down a few percent could be an interesting short term play opportunity?

Something like sell at 230 buy back at 215 when oil drags it down, or are we not coupled to oil enough lately for it to be likely to work?

 

[ggies07]

if he took those commitments and used them to fund a couple gigafactories, electric cars, stationary storage - maybe we wouldn't sit around for a decade we can't afford waiting for the tooth fairy of green technology to slip fusion under our pillow while we sleep and instead move much more rapidly toward electric transportation and rapid adoption of renewable energy.

Anyone have Billy's number - might have to give him a ring.

Yes. Yes. Yes.