Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[madodel]

The Model X was targeted at the China market so why is it a surprise that they plan to expedite deliveries to China. I just hope Elon was correct when he said the doors will work better than normal doors soon. I've never had a door problem in the 4 months I've had my X but I see reports of latch problems with the front doors. That has to be fixed before they start exporting this amazing car to China.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Bizarre stock movement all around today. Where is all the volume today? Does anyone know a way to view the most active sector?

 

[Dr ValueSeeker]

@Krugerrand, my dear friend,
Your blind love for the Almighty at Tesla is abnormal! Do you need to see a shrink? Hey, can I also call you Lensman or something like that, another character with similar traits that pollutes the EV forums all too often? I just compared some past aspirations with reality, while all you could do is come up with tons of silly excuses.

Keep holding your TSLA based on your blind faith. In 5 years, my TSLA shorts will gain 95% (after paying 5% in borrowing costs for 5 years), while yours will be worth.. exactly what? Even if Tesla will hit AAPL market cap (LOL, that's another story I will need to revisit in couple of years), your upside is zero due to ongoing dilution to cover the red ink. It won't matter how much more money the professors at the Eccles building will print.

@SBenson,
Regarding Tesla service: I believe these are mostly warranty and non-warranty repairs. One big issue was the DU replacement. At one time, 1100 drive units were flown into Norway to replace those, when there were only 4000 MS in Norway.
Then there is a host of smaller issues, like leaking sunroofs, sun visors breaking, etc. etc. There used to be a huge list availabel on elbilforum.no. If someone knows how to read or search in Norwegian, (s)he can dig it up. For a similar list of things that can go wrong, Edmunds' long term road test summary provides a decent substitute.
2013 Tesla Model S Long-Term Wrap-Up | Edmunds.com

Problem Repair Cost
Suspicious noise Replace first drive unit Warranty
Car died roadside Replace second drive unit Warranty
Suspicious noise Replace third drive unit and ride height sensor Warranty
Car died roadside Replace main battery Warranty
Touchscreen froze Replace main display screen Warranty
Optional 21-inch rear tires worn to cords prematurely Replace rear tires and fix alignment Warranty
Car died roadside Replace 12-volt battery and cables Warranty
Steering wheel creak Shim and torque sub-frame bolts Warranty
Odd noise from undercarriage Rerouted logic harnesses per TSB Warranty
Sunroof will not work Replace broken sunroof deflector Warranty
Driver door opens automatically Replace driver door handle mechanism Warranty
Recall issued Battery shield kit installed Warranty
TSB issued Inspect joints for all lower control arm washers Warranty
TSB issued Update firmware to version 5.8.4 Warranty
TSB issued Update firmware to version 5.11 Warranty
TSB issued Replace front bumper carrier bolts Warranty
TSB issued Install rear upper camber bolts Warranty
TSB issued Replace side motor mount Warranty
TSB issued Replace front floor mats, install rear floor mats Warranty
Left radiator shutter faulty Replace center louvers Warranty
Lug nuts beginning to swell Replace all 20 lug nuts Warranty
Cracked vanity mirror hinge Replace cracked vanity mirror hinge Goodwill
Humming noise at start-up Install AC compressor NVH cover Goodwill
Vanity mirror hinge cracked Replace missing charge cord trim piece Goodwill
Touchscreen froze Manual reset (required 9 times during test) None
Windows lowered automatically Unresolved, happened twice None
TPMS confused Unresolved, happened once None
Condensation in taillight Unresolved prior to sale None

Incidentally, I was talking to someone from Norway whose son has a Tesla. He himself drives expensive Mercs and BMWs. He told me, Teslas have too many problems. Is it surprising that Tesla sales have all but evaporated in Norway, even with the huge incentives?

Now, if you folks will excuse me, I need to go visit SA and read some fun banters! Adios Muchachos.

 

[Papafox]

Bizarre stock movement all around today. Where is all the volume today? Does anyone know a way to view the most active sector?

Only 1.4M shares traded so far today. I'd say the best explanation is that TSLA had a down day yesterday and some potential buyers had been sitting on the sidelines, watching to see if we've bottomed out from this mini-dip before getting back in. Meanwhile, we don't see the big downward thrusts that I believe are earmarks of shorts selling in (in the absence of news to justify such downward stabs). Because of the enormous number of shares held by shorts, you really do have to look at both short and long motivations for getting in, and right now the tide is changing from one that encouraged shorts to sell in yesterday to one where longs will be buying in (hopefully the remainder of the day and tomorrow). With about $1.7B of stock just sold at about $218/share, one would expect $218 to be a strong support price. That said, when we get to the really-low volume times of day in late afternoon, we typically see a downward trend if there's no strong trend underway, simply because it is a convenient time for shorts to get the most bang for their buck in selling shares to coax the SP lower.

Bottom line: the longs are just now getting back in after yesterday's downtrend and the shorts are likely not happy with this price point as an entry point are are likely sitting on the sidelines today, too.

Edit: We just went slightly green. Normally you would see the uptrend continue for the rest of the day because there's motivations for longs to keep getting in and the trend is there. If we turn red immediately, again, though, it's a game of "wack the mole" being played by shorts in a mind game to keep the hopes down of longs.

 

[Gerardf]

< removed first line, so those who blocked you are not bothered with this line >

. In 5 years, my TSLA shorts will gain 95% (after paying 5% in borrowing costs for 5 years),.

IANAS (*) but I advise you to familiarize yourself with : Psychological projection - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia before you make such remarks about others here at this forum.

Now on the only real content of your post. You do realize we have a special thread for predictions. Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
Note that it is custom at this forum that such predictions includes sock-eating in case you will be proven wrong. In case you can no longer afford socks by then, members of this forum will be happy to provide you with some.

(*) = I Am Not A Shrink

 

[Papafox]

Yep, the game of "whack the mole" by the shorts is underway. There's no real reason for longs to abandon the uptrend today, no real reason to take profits just as you hit the starting point for the day. If the longs are hungry enough, they'll overpower the "whack down" as we went green and we'll continue the uptrend, but longs may get discouraged and the "whack down" may succeed. I personally find this gamesmanship in trading to be fascinating.

Edit: We just barely went green for a second time today and then there's a second "whack down". Come on longs, you're going to have to do better if you want to break into the green and hold it. Once a nice uptrend is established in the green, the shorts probably don't want to spend the money to keep playing the game while SP is rising.

 

[EinSV]

IANAS (*) but I advise you to familiarize yourself with : Psychological projection - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia before you make such remarks about others here at this forum.

Now on the only real content of your post. You do realize we have a special thread for predictions. Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
Note that it is custom at this forum that such predictions includes sock-eating in case you will be proven wrong.

(*) = I Am Not A Shrink

I would love to see an artist's rendering of the good doctor. Every time I read one of his posts I get a mental image of a cross between Dr. Evil and Mr. Burns from the Simpsons. Sadly, I don't have an artistic bone in my body.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

View attachment 179118
Yep, the game of "whack the mole" by the shorts is underway. There's no real reason for longs to abandon the uptrend today, no real reason to take profits just as you hit the starting point for the day. If the longs are hungry enough, they'll overpower the "whack down" as we went green and we'll continue the uptrend, but longs may get discouraged and the "whack down" may succeed. I personally find this gamesmanship in trading to be fascinating.

Someone is taking advantage of the low volume all around to manipulate the heck out of Solar City and Tesla.

Maybe the reason Elon let the shareholder meeting go on for 4 hours was to give shareholders and analysts the opportunity to ask every conceivable question, and to confuse the algos with information overload?

 

[RobStark]

It could be that we are seeing the effect of Model 3 reservations drying up some demand for ICE cars.

Somebody should run the numbers and figure out how many cars those drop in sales equals. I wonder how many down months GM and Ford will see to equal 400,000 new car buyers disappearing from the market.

The 373k number is for worldwide reservations.

The drop in in May is for USA sales following an increase in April.

The US auto market is up 1.2% YTD 2016.

Worldwide Tesla reservations are much more likely to affect Toyota(Prius,Lexus IS & ES), BMW(i3 and 3 Series) and Nissan(LEAF) than GM and Ford. Even Mercedes (C Class/B Class EV ) and Volkswagen (Audi A4 plus A3 Etrons plus VW GTE/E versions).

 

[Yggdrasill]

It is a 6month wait for service here in Norway, and Model X has not tet arrived here. Not good.

Are you sure about that?

My impression is that the service times have been dropping, at least in Drammen. This is probably helped by fewer sales, and higher quality on the new cars they do sell. I talked to an owner who could get an appointment in like 3 months. Still not good, but a lot better than before.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

And the award for the most BS article of the year goes to David Harris with the Boston Business Journal. The award for most BS Tesla and Solar City related lawsuit goes to Bay State resident, Carole Gibbs, along with Connecticut resident Arthur Colby.

http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/b...resident-suing-elon-musks-solarcity-over.html

About two years ago, a salesman visited Gibbs offering SolarCity’s products and services, according to court documents. After some initial interest, Gibbs said she informed the salesman that she was not interested in doing business with SolarCity. Since that visit, Gibbs has been receiving calls from SolarCity offering her their services though she already told them she was not interested. But even after she told the company she wasn't interested, Gibbs said the company called her at least three more times.

1) Gibbs initially expressed interest, opting in to receive information from Solar City and does not say she told Solar City to take her off their list, and to not call her again after she decided to not use Solar City.
2) Gibbs is suing for receiving 3 calls over a period of 2 years. I can't believe 3 calls over a period of 2 years constitutes harassment, even if Gibbs hadn't OPTED IN.

According to the suit, both Gibbs and Colby previously registered their names on the National Do Not Call registry to avoid receiving unsolicited telemarketing calls on her phone.

I don't see why this would be relevant, since the article states Gibbs and Colby both OPTED IN to receiving calls when they initially expressed interest.

Colby claims in court documents that he requested a quote from SolarCity's website for solar installation. After representatives from the company made a visit to his home, the company informed him that his home was "not positioned well for a solar installation." But even after the company admitted it couldn't install solar panels at his home, Colby said SolarCity inundated him with calls: "These calls were made regularly and lasted for approximately six months."

According to Arthur Colby's own words, Colby OPTED IN to receive calls from Solar City, when he submitted a request for a quote,that was followed up with Solar City investing Solar City's time and money into visiting his home per his request, and producing a quote for him.

Colby's claims Solar City was harassing him because Solar City called him regularly (without saying what regularly means) for six months after, according to Colby, Solar City determined his house was not a good fit for Solar City's panels. Not only did Colby OPT IN to receiving calls, he explicitly requested that Solar City (at no cost to Colby) invest resources into visiting his house and producing a quote.

Solar City should sue Gibbs and Colby. Not only does this lawsuit not make sense. It isn't clear to me what the heck the DO NOT CALL list has to do with it, since both of them OPTED IN to receiving calls.

Interesting. According to this website, Carol Gibbs is a name used by a telemarketing SCAM, claiming to be with the Department of Legal Affairs, US Treasury. According to one post, Arthur is another name used by the scam, claiming to be with the US Treasury.

http://800notes.com/Phone.aspx/1-202-821-1155/3

Here is another website that has more complaints about the same scam.

http://complaintwire.org/complaint/lh9AlGx2PAk/dept-of-legal-affairs-scam/12

 

[Tslynk67]

Good old Chowdhry: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Analyst Offers Ludicrous Valuation on Gigafactory

 

[Papafox]

Looks like it took 4 whack downs for the shorts at the red-to-green transition level to stop the transgression into the green (not counting the whack down in the first hour of trading). At about 3:30pm you can see one jump in volume as over 6,000 shares are sold. This sale could have been from a long discouraged by the day's trading and it pretty much sets today up for closing in the red. The good news is that manipulation cannot easily take place on high volume days when news is moving the stock and buyers can regard the low-volume manipulations such as we see today as an opportunity to buy in at a lower price than would be available without the manipulations. High-volume, news-based trading days inevitably lie ahead.

 

[techmaven]

Good old Chowdhry: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Analyst Offers Ludicrous Valuation on Gigafactory

Wait.. at 100 GWh, at an average of $100/kWh, that's $10 billion in revenue each year. Given it will take time to hit that number, say 5 years, then the next 15 years is $150 billion. Say the first 5 years is at a $125/kWh and is ramping, so is $25 billion, so that's $175 billion in revenue, not $100 billion.

 

[FredTMC]

What's with TSLA pop to $221 after hours ?!

 

[esk8mw]

What's with TSLA pop to $221 after hours ?!

Volume behind it too. Some, at least. Not sure.

 

[Curt Renz]

What's with TSLA pop to $221 after hours ?!

From Thinkorswim Tesla news:

Sterne Agee CRT initiates coverage on Tesla Motors with a Buy rating and a $300 price target.

Added: “We forecast revenue under $9 billion in 2016 but growing to $32 billion by 2019E.”

Edit to link Benzinga article: Sterne Agee CRT Starts Tesla At Buy With $300 Target; Sees $32 Billion In Revenue By 2019 - Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[Jayjs20]

I'm surprised the AH spike is staying up somewhat. Is one analyst's assessment really worth that much?

 

[TMSE]

I'm surprised the AH spike is staying up somewhat. Is one analyst's assessment really worth that much?

It is just the beginning of analyst upgrades. It looks like walstreet now wants short squeeze, easy way to meet their annual performance goal in a few days. who better than TSLA in that regard?

My predictions:
1) Adam Jonas of MS will be next with $450+ target
2) GS will upgrade a notch up and revise target to $300+

And more...

 

[Curt Renz]

It is just the beginning of analyst upgrades. It looks like walstreet now wants short squeeze, easy way to meet their annual performance goal in a few days. who better than TSLA in that regard?

My predictions:
1) Adam Jonas of MS will be next with $450+ target
2) GS will upgrade a notch up and revise target to $300+

And more...

And then that “firm” that began its existence in March with the hoity-toity name of Devonshire Research Group solely to send out press releases deprecating Tesla will confess its sins.