traditional fossil fuel monopolies have 12 tax breaks in the tax code, including no permitting for the installation of an oil Derrick anywhere, nor do they have to eliminate(or disclose) any chemicals they inject into land anywhere in the country(including any neighborhood you live).How certain I am that the residential solar model isn't financially viable and won't be for at least 5 years? I would say 90% sure. 99% that it isn't viable today. 80% that it won't be viable even in 10 years time.
What would change my mind about its viability today is someone pointing out something I have missed which seems very unlikely to me, I have spent a lot of time on this. In the future residential solar will somehow need to reduce cost much faster than utility scale even though it is the same tech. Or both would have to drop extremely low in price, something like 80%+ so the distribution savings that could be made would be significant enough to tip the scales.
But of course, even though the residential solar isn't financially viable it can still be a success, and SCTY could be a success. So far SCTY has grown a lot on the back of the large subsidy of net metering on top of the 30% ITC. As long as the large subsidies continue residential solar demand will be alive and kicking. But if net metering goes away, SCTY is gone the next day, we saw this in Nevada.
Solar has one tax credit that only comes from an actual sale of a system, an actual market has to exist to receive any tax credit, unlike many of the "in perpetuity" tax breaks utilities get. ITC is limited and has an actual expiration date, utilities don't.
Fossil fuel monolpoly utilties are among the 4 most subsidized industries in the entire United States, yet still get a guarenteed rate of return on a rate payer base that can't deny their services. The fossil fuel utilties have mininial service innovation over its 100 year existence and has a historical rate inflation of average of 5% annually.
Solar industry has dropped costs precipitously and have done so on the premise of innovation and scale which has not even scratched the surface on its iteration cycle, not including storage, smart inverters and smart home applications and networking potentialities(aggregation).
To not say fossil fuel, traditional utility monopolies are not far, far more subsidized then solar, you have to be completely lying to yourself and in desperate need of a timeout in the corner.
Take away all utiltity subsidies, including guarenteed rate of returns and a hostage customer base and solar a decade ago would have undercut them in their sleep.
As a matter of fact we could lower every amercians income tax, while getting a grid that is 100% technologically superior and efficient then what we have today.