Any particular reason? Asian markets are solidly green and FTSE futures are actually green as well.
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Any particular reason? Asian markets are solidly green and FTSE futures are actually green as well.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
VanE
Member
Oké, these are the upcoming 'events' that I can think of that will influence TSLA the coming weeks:
This week - Extra fallout of the Brexit (this will be relatively limited for TSLA)
4/5th July - Q2 delivery numbers
2-3 weeks - Due diligence for SCTY merger is done
29th July - Gigafactory party!! (could this also be the time and place where they will unveil the Powerpack 2.0?)
Begin Aug. - Q2 results
End of summer - Falcon Heavy launch (probably doesn't really affect TSLA, but still cool, though!
)
Is there anything big that is missing?
The Q2 delivery numbers will most likely be a beat (I expect somewhere between the 18.000 and 18.500), but I don't know if it will deliver a significant upbeat to TSLA thanks to the macro economy and the SCTY merger. What do you guys expect? (both in delivery numbers and in the reaction of the market)
No matter what the due diligence says, I expect a very strong market reaction. (This is the variable that holds me most back to buy sept. options already)
I expect a lot from the Gigafactory, it still feels as a long-term project, but when they unveil the factory and machines it will show the world that Tesla has now one of the biggest battery factories on the world!
This week - Extra fallout of the Brexit (this will be relatively limited for TSLA)
4/5th July - Q2 delivery numbers
2-3 weeks - Due diligence for SCTY merger is done
29th July - Gigafactory party!! (could this also be the time and place where they will unveil the Powerpack 2.0?)
Begin Aug. - Q2 results
End of summer - Falcon Heavy launch (probably doesn't really affect TSLA, but still cool, though!
)Is there anything big that is missing?
The Q2 delivery numbers will most likely be a beat (I expect somewhere between the 18.000 and 18.500), but I don't know if it will deliver a significant upbeat to TSLA thanks to the macro economy and the SCTY merger. What do you guys expect? (both in delivery numbers and in the reaction of the market)
No matter what the due diligence says, I expect a very strong market reaction. (This is the variable that holds me most back to buy sept. options already)
I expect a lot from the Gigafactory, it still feels as a long-term project, but when they unveil the factory and machines it will show the world that Tesla has now one of the biggest battery factories on the world!
IF I've understood SCTY's business model right, they lease solar power for 20 years and finance it by loan? They then collect money from home owner and pay loan interest with this money. So they need to be able to get loan with smaller interest rate than they collect from their customers.
To my understanding, they have to refinance the lease several times during this twenty years period.
So to my understanding, if interest rate rises and is higher than the fixed interest which they get from their customers, their business is not viable
Disclaimer: my understanding concerning SCTY’s business model is very limited.
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I know we're several days out on this discussion and maybe someone has already chimed in, but if we're talking about legislative risk and dependence on subsidies, we must also talk about solar's competition which gets more subsidy per unit energy and could very well risk legislative correction if governments get off their asses and actually bother to price externalities just like everyone with any economic sense has been saying for a hundred damn years.
Act Local, Solve Global: The $5.3 Trillion Energy Subsidy Problem
Fossil fuels are way more expensive than you think | Dana Nuccitelli
Perfectlogic
Member
If the utilities wasn't all about renewables in their new capacity additions you would have a point. Residential solar wouldn't be able to swap out our entire FF electricity production capacity overnight and neither will the utilties, just a matter of time though.
@ perfectlogc, your logic would indicate you are against the merger, are we
Clear about that, based on your reasoning that residential solar is non economic .
Gerardf
Active Member
IMHO the discussions about Solar business models, invcentives etc, etc are interesting, but should be held in the SolarCity thread, or any of the other three SCTY-related threads in the investor section. We often have some non-short term SP posts in this "short-term TSLA price movements" thread, and it has indeed become a bit of a catch-all, however this is now going on for many pages.
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Perfectlogic
Member
I think the acquisition would be bad for Tesla yes, and great for SCTY.
So back to short term.... Where is the next support level? 180? If we break 180 then free fall like last time? Don't know how this market will react to meeting guidance or just beating it probably negative with the current market sentiment. I will probably buy some calls this week. Lucky I sold my Sept 220 a day or two before solar city but held onto my 220 December calls but not too worried. I can volume average down and ride it out. With Tsla you never know what can happen in a month.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
TSLA is holding up better than NASDAQ so far.
Much of today's market action has to do with Brexit uncertainty, because the UK government seems to be in no hurry to begin the Article 50 process to leave the EU.
Much of today's market action has to do with Brexit uncertainty, because the UK government seems to be in no hurry to begin the Article 50 process to leave the EU.
Soros seems to think it's option-A
George Soros: The European Union Is Heading For A 'Disorderly Disintegration'
larmor
Active Member
So what does TSLA need to do next, besides:
1. Building and selling, and yes delivering high end electric sedans on par with an s class or panamera
2. Building, selling and even delivering a high end-read expensive, SUV/CUV on par with a cayenne
3. Making the worlds largest battery plant, because hard to make a cord long enough to keep your electric car plugged in
4. Pivot shift to an energy company (any of you out there have experience with pivot shift in your startups?) of which this new utility is not govt supported
5. Because everyone needs some 'lectricity to recarge that darn phone which went from 100% to 60% in the course of one hour alerting servers that you woke up
6. Get energy for free from the sun and in the meantime, drive oil down to record lows in the past 5 years....
Not sure what else has to happen, or just continue trending the latest macro, Britain leaving the EU, Messi leaving Argentina national team...
1. Building and selling, and yes delivering high end electric sedans on par with an s class or panamera
2. Building, selling and even delivering a high end-read expensive, SUV/CUV on par with a cayenne
3. Making the worlds largest battery plant, because hard to make a cord long enough to keep your electric car plugged in
4. Pivot shift to an energy company (any of you out there have experience with pivot shift in your startups?) of which this new utility is not govt supported
5. Because everyone needs some 'lectricity to recarge that darn phone which went from 100% to 60% in the course of one hour alerting servers that you woke up
6. Get energy for free from the sun and in the meantime, drive oil down to record lows in the past 5 years....
Not sure what else has to happen, or just continue trending the latest macro, Britain leaving the EU, Messi leaving Argentina national team...
Well I'm not saying he's wrong but he's still massively short, so he's talking his book. We won't know when he closes his short positions until after the fact when he starts saying "just kidding - everyone back in the pool all is well!"
Edit: never mind he says he was long the pound. /shrug
I'm curious about Tesla's international plans in the context of Model-3.
Musk repeatedly said that it won't make sense to ship Model-3, given it's price level, from US to rest of the world. But on the other hand, his recent comments about Fremont factory and gigafactory factory seem to indicate that bulk of volume production (atleast in first few years) will come from US.
So which way is it, will Tesla be shipping initial Model-3s from Fremont to Europe and China? For how long?
How much capital does it take to setup local manufacturing. Will the cash raised recently be enough for all of this?
Musk repeatedly said that it won't make sense to ship Model-3, given it's price level, from US to rest of the world. But on the other hand, his recent comments about Fremont factory and gigafactory factory seem to indicate that bulk of volume production (atleast in first few years) will come from US.
So which way is it, will Tesla be shipping initial Model-3s from Fremont to Europe and China? For how long?
How much capital does it take to setup local manufacturing. Will the cash raised recently be enough for all of this?
He was apparently long Pound when he was fear-mongering on Brexit.
Billionaire Soros Was ‘Long’ on Pound Before Vote on Brexit
So, go long pound and advocate against exit - that seems to be consistent.
Now he might very well be short given the developments.
Since Tesla presumably wants/needs a lot of Chinese capital the impact of regulatory changes may be negligible. Did Musk plan the solarcity semi-fiasco to coincide with good China news?
There seem to me to be several strong contenders for why Tesla acted now on Solarcity. If Tesla can be confidently viewed as a much larger company then absorbing solarcity would seem less critical.
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