Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[DrJohnM]

I th

I have understood some demand concerns in the past and I also understand that the reintroduction of the S 60 was likely required to ensure that demand is sufficient. However, given that waiting times are reasonable in all markets, if not somewhat on the long side by recent standards, despite the current highest-ever production rate, how can there possibly be a demand problem right now - if there was any issue, surely it was solved by the S 60? Unless you think that the long wait time is some sort of deception, as X Yes seems to think, how can you reconcile that?

Before the end of June, every market was showing at least September. I don't remember seeing that kind of wait time in recent quarters.

I think that you have it all wrong. Clearly, the gigafactory has only be built to hide all of the inventory that is being mass produced but has noone to purchase, that is the real reason why the Power Wall has been such a flop - no space to actually build it due to all of the MS and MX's in inventory. It is the only way that they can have any ordering backlog. I also suspect that when you do see a MS or MX in the wild, it is being driven round by a Tesler employee to make it look like there have been some sales. It is after all, just a pyramid scheme. Paid shills to write up reviews about how they love their car, when for a fact, most of them do not even have electricity at home. The share price will be lucky to even make it into whole digits and when Tesla is bankrupt, Mr Musk will just be laughing as he heads back home to Mars.

 

[sdtslafan]

That scandal happened a while ago, any effect would probably have played out by now. The bankruptcy of the VW group is an order of magnitude less likely than Tesla, the german government will bail them out almost certainly if the fines turn out to bankrupt them which I also find to be unlikely.

Edit; was a bit fast, I meant the chance of VW going out of existence is much less likely than Tesla, I don't know about the chances of going bankrupt, but any likelyhood of VW going bankrupt doesn't lessen the likelyhood of Tesla doing the same.

Played out by now? Seriously? Check out the article below. From my understanding, the number of cars in question in Europe 11 million which is 22 times the number of cars in the US (500,000). So I think its more like 4% (500,000/11,000,000) played out by now.

Volkswagen should pay Europeans same compensation as U.S. drivers: EU commissioner

 

[3Victoria]

.... having sucked Earth dry. We are all doomed!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Maybe Model 3 caused Osborne effect?

Unlikely, given that Model S, Model X, and Model 3 occupy different product segments in the automobile marketplace.

Someone who wants a smaller, nimble compact sport sedan like Model 3, is not necessarily going to want a larger more expensive cruiser like the Model S.

From another perspective, when Honda announces a new generation of Honda Fit (a tiny 5-door hatchback), it has little effect on Honda Civic sales (4-door and 2-door compacts with more sophisticated engines, better suspensions, and more sound dampening). The cars do different things.

 

[TSLADream]

I think the overall demand for Tesla is not a problem, but Model X is definitely cannibalazing Model S sales. As Model X ramps up and the customers are confident that initial production problems are resolved, then more Model X orders will show up. Currently, they are postponing the purchase because of uncertainty.

The challenge for them is in order to meet 75K+ this year, they need to sell atleast 20K Model X, that will be a steep ramp-up. They probably need to make some new feature refresh to Model S by end of the year to stimulate Model S demand.

 

[Matias]

Unlikely, given that Model S, Model X, and Model 3 occupy different product segments in the automobile marketplace.

Someone who wants a smaller, nimble compact sport sedan like Model 3, is not necessarily going to want a larger more expensive cruiser like the Model S.

Before Model 3 S was the cheapest Tesla. Many here have posted, that Model S was by far the most expensive car they had ever bought. Now some of those people will wait for Model 3.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Played out by now? Seriously? Check out the article below. From my understanding, the number of cars in question in Europe 11 million which is 22 times the number of cars in the US (500,000). So I think its more like 4% (500,000/11,000,000) played out by now.

Volkswagen should pay Europeans same compensation as U.S. drivers: EU commissioner

Are we not talking about the public perception of the VW group brands? Why do you think that will change now and not back when the scandal broke? We know about it in EU too you know.

 

[InTheShadows]

Take a look at ev-cpo.com and sort by VIN. For example, the consecutive range of VINs from 137700 to 137739 was available as inventory sale (some got sold but the series is still visible). You can find such ranges of 10-20 cars at a time regularly in the list. Those cars were specifically build for inventory and in the meantime are used as loaners.

This is interesting since last time I was at the Devon service center (late May) to get a loaner they told me they only loan CPO cars now. (I requested an AP car since ours is a classic.) The loaner I got had a vin of 22xxx. They told me the only inventory they had were demo cars and showroom models. 3 cars, one X and S for test drives and 1 new facia on the floor.

 

[X Yes?]

Maybe Model 3 caused Osborne effect?

Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes. Tesla has mined the affluent customers and is now looking for those willing to stretch their budget. Many of those willing to wait for the Model 3. Or buy used. The RVG is off and used Model S's are not meeting previous RVG, so good deals in the used car market.

 

[madodel]

Played out by now? Seriously? Check out the article below. From my understanding, the number of cars in question in Europe 11 million which is 22 times the number of cars in the US (500,000). So I think its more like 4% (500,000/11,000,000) played out by now.

Volkswagen should pay Europeans same compensation as U.S. drivers: EU commissioner

Odd that the trolls who post here for the singular purpose of protecting man-kind don't have any issue with a genuine criminal operation like VW.

 

[sdtslafan]

Are we not talking about the public perception of the VW group brands? Why do you think that will change now and not back when the scandal broke? We know about it in EU too you know.

I'm looking at it strictly as a huge current and future financial liability to the company, one which will impact its ability for future R&D among other things. Being in Europe, you would know better if there has been damage to the brands. I can't imagine it being good for public image but I understand that a large factor in brand loyalty (particularly in Germany) stems from national pride.

I think the wait times together with the current run rate are strong evidence that Tesla currently has sufficient demand for this year. I cannot be sure at time point in time how strong the demand will be in 2017 given perturbations from Brexit, US elections, macroeconomic cycles, etc. My sense is that they will at least be able to match this years demand as a bridge to Model 3 which will take the company to a new level.

The challenge for Tesla at this point is to maintain focus and control of its finances until successful completion of the Model 3 ramp. This may mean exercising caution and minimizing risk in the short term.

Everytime I get in my Model S, I see the big picture.

 

[Gerardf]

I agree with you. I think you and I should sell all our remaining shares at huge discount to hedge funds just in time for 2000 / week x 12 weeks + 5000 = 29000 deliveries in Q3.

With healthy sales in China and Europe there will continously be many cars in transport. So you can not add these 5000 just like that. They might be able to get more of those delivered before quarters end, so maybe 1or 2k out of that 5k. OTOH, an increasing number of cars in transport are a good sign, certainly not a bad sign.

I also recall Tesla set up some special financing for cars in transit, so they can have the cash already ? I have to look that up, but that might have an 'interesting effect' on theQ2 cash flow. Does someone here remember about that ?

 

[Cosmacelf]

The RVG is off and used Model S's are not meeting previous RVG, so good deals in the used car market.

So I completely didn't follow what happened with the Residual Value Guarantee. I take it that it is no longer being offered? When did the program stop? And did Tesla have to pay out anything significant for the original RVG leases?

 

[AlMc]

I can't prove or disprove what, if any, Osborne Effect model 3 is causing on S demand. TM may have some idea but I doubt they will share it.

In my case, I will be utilizing the GRV (Guaranteed Resale Value) on my P85+ that I bought three years ago. I did may DD on this car's value on the open market and will get more for it (about $54k) from TM than selling it on my own. If the 3 were not so compelling I would probably replace it with another S....but '3' has had me decide to wait a year plus as I can get a loaded 3 for the residual value of my S.

Just a single data point and I admit it does not mean every person will use the GRV if they have it or are dissuaded from buying an S because they are waiting for a 3.

 

[Rarity]

What do you estimate the open market value of your P85+?

 

[Matias]

I'm not so familiar with GRV, but it seems it will bring losses to Tesla, if they need to pay more than market value?

 

[Hyronimous]

I'm not so familiar with GRV, but it seems it will bring losses to Tesla, if they need to pay more than market value?

They could lose on that, but should be able to mitigate it by including additional options and raise price for that

 

[GoTslaGo]

Check out @RubberToe excellent recent posts with monthly sales of ICE vehicles. Don't know about Osborning Model S, but definitely seems to be hitting ICE's pretty hard.

Model 3 that is. He also has a Model X spreadsheet now. Pretty impressive.

 

[X Yes?]

It is customer-ordered vehicles! Not inventory! Not loaners! Not demo units! Please stop twisting the facts!

See this thread: Model X inventory car purchase

 

[anon]

I also recall Tesla set up some special financing for cars in transit, so they can have the cash already ? I have to look that up, but that might have an 'interesting effect' on the Q2 cash flow. Does someone here remember about that ?

That's a very good point. They set up an asset-backed loan (ABL) to cover this - it was discussed at some length during Q4 ER. So there will be a positive cash flow impact from the extra vehicles in transit after all!