ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Impressive chart so far.
Personally I think we're either above $299.1 very soon or falling back further down to the next lower support level.
Edit:
Ignition.
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Personally I think we're either above $299.1 very soon or falling back further down to the next lower support level.
Edit:
Ignition.
racer26
Active Member
What does everyone think the market reaction will be if Tesla narrows guidance to the lower end? I think there is a very good chance that they "lower" guidance from 80-90 to 80-85 in Q2 earnings. The more I think about it, the more I think the response will be muted.
Reasons: (i) they pretty much already guided to this in the deliveries numbers release by saying 50kish to be delivered in the second half of 2016, (ii) the street already didn't believe the upper end of guidance from the day it was published, with many analysts wondering if 80k was even possible, (iii) it's still within the range so it's not really lowering and (iv) even if just 80k is hit that's extremely impressive 60% YoY growth.
Thoughts?
Reasons: (i) they pretty much already guided to this in the deliveries numbers release by saying 50kish to be delivered in the second half of 2016, (ii) the street already didn't believe the upper end of guidance from the day it was published, with many analysts wondering if 80k was even possible, (iii) it's still within the range so it's not really lowering and (iv) even if just 80k is hit that's extremely impressive 60% YoY growth.
Thoughts?
racer26
Active Member
Cripes! How much bad news can you be expecting in Q2ER that wasn't already priced in?
Well I spend my whole day watching TSLA SP and it's my observation that there's no correlation to anything, really! Only thing that did make a real different was the hysteria around M3 ordering and I expect the SP to go through the roof when M3 actually becomes a reality. Before then, NFI (no f****** idea...)
My biggest concerns are:
- lowered guidance (covered in earlier post, shouldn't come as a surprise)
- stagnant margins (not likely, IMO, still pumping out high price X with resolve ramp issues toward end of quarter, 60 introduced too late to knock margins down)
- EPS miss due to ramped SGA costs/OpEx/CapEx but timing of deliveries didn't make end of quarter as expected (biggest fear is this, but cash flow from ops due to ABL from masive deliveries in transit - plus model 3 reservation cashflow - should factor in to show a very shiny number there)
It's very much a wildcard. I keep going back and forth as to expected outcome of the call.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
It is a 'crap shoot' trying to predict how this ER will affect the SP. I have been wrong as often as right. If EM pulls 'the rabbit (SCTY merger ) out of his hat on the CC the stock could go up.
I did sell all my calls/leaps today.
IMO, if we get a good CC we could see a 5-10% gain...but I think it more likely we see a dip.
Good luck to all.
Anyone going to the GF party..have a good time and posts your thoughts and pics
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Again an interesting day so far. SP converging.
Getting some popcorn ready for a bigger move up or down.
Getting some popcorn ready for a bigger move up or down.
Okay what is your take, what do you think the stock will do before and after ER?
Thanks.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Why would they do that?
Are your LEAPS green?AlMc said:
I'm thinking of replacing my J2018's with more J2017's or maybe Mar2017's, but costing less $, to catch any upswings between now and a good time to buy 2019's.
I'm not convinced it's going down now, so I'm not planning to do that now,
Good luck everyone!
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Via Fidelity newsfeed:
BOSTON, July 28 (Reuters) - Fidelity's OTC Portfolio, a top investor in Tesla Motors Inc(TSLA), gave the electric car maker a vote of confidence in its latest commentary, saying it boosted its position in the company during the second quarter.
"We are fans not just of Tesla products but of the concepts underpinning the firm and potential future partnerships ahead of it," Fidelity OTC portfolio manager Gavin Baker said in his quarterly commentary for investors. "We foresee fruitful synergies between Tesla and any company in search of superior battery technology, and we modestly increased our position this quarter."
Fidelity posted the commentary on its website on Wednesday.
BOSTON, July 28 (Reuters) - Fidelity's OTC Portfolio, a top investor in Tesla Motors Inc(TSLA), gave the electric car maker a vote of confidence in its latest commentary, saying it boosted its position in the company during the second quarter.
"We are fans not just of Tesla products but of the concepts underpinning the firm and potential future partnerships ahead of it," Fidelity OTC portfolio manager Gavin Baker said in his quarterly commentary for investors. "We foresee fruitful synergies between Tesla and any company in search of superior battery technology, and we modestly increased our position this quarter."
Fidelity posted the commentary on its website on Wednesday.
racer26
Active Member
I'm relatively new to this, so I wouldn't recommend anyone else base any investing decisions on my thesis, but here goes:
I think you're probably right it will creep up to the ER (though we might have another Monday morning pop based on the GF party tomorrow night).
I think that everyone expects the ER to be lackluster, given the lackluster delivery numbers we got a month ago. TE might surprise though. Consequently, I think the expectation means weak performance is already priced in, and so unless there is REALLY bad news, any dip as a result should be fairly muted. If TE surprises, it could pop.
If we get a tidbit about Q3 guidance and that we're on schedule to ship ~25k cars in Q3 (ie. we've already shipped 8-9k cars in July), things could pop.
My plan was to exit most but not all of my short term position on Monday or Tuesday after the GF party has a chance to impact the market but before the ER on Wednesday. My longer term position I'll just hang on to because I'm certain it'll pan out by next year.
Yes. Green but not as much as expected. Made about 20% if you average them together.
Decided the ER is too uncertain and I have been known to hold on too long expecting for 'big' returns.
I actually emptied all my option positions today except a small AAPL leap that is 'break even' at this point.
So, no more FB, TSLA or N options..
I will watch with interest the Q2 ER without any options. Less stressful that way.
I do expect a good Q3 but while we may get some 'color'on how that looks from EM on the Q2 CC, we won't have firm numbers until early Octobet.
I will get back into J18s between now and Seotember...
Why would they narrow guidance in Q2? Well, given the X issues and late ramp, the higher end of the 80-90 range looks pretty unlikely, so they have to guide for what's likely. Also, they have now reached (or are approaching) steady state production so they probably have a much clearer idea re: what actual deliveries will look like by the end of the year. Thus guidance should narrow here or in Q3 (even if they determine they are still on track for midpoint, in which case it would narrow to 82.5-87.5). Note that they switched up guidance from 55k to 50-55k in Q2 of 2015, so there's definitely precedent for revisiting annual guidance at this point in the year.
229 again! It's like an impossible dream to stay above it for more than 15 minutes.
This ER reminds me of the last doom and gloom one. When the ER actually happened there was a relief rally because the news was as bad as expected and the upcoming news had a bullish bias. This setup feels the same.
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