The problem is, adding US and Europe together (two regions we have some data to speculate), we are most likely below the 5k to begin with. With the help of Canada, I think the total would be slightly above 5k. But this is just emptying the 5k in transit from last month. So either Asia has to see more than 100% growth in July, or production rate dropped below 1k/week and delivery efficiency was still sub-optimal, or they lack demand after a burst of 60 at the end of June, or they lied about 5k in transit.
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Interesting how they are getting new models out just as Model S is reaching saturation...almost like it was planned!
racer26
Active Member
In Ontario, Canada they pretty much are.
MS60 RWD with no options = CAD$86000 + 13% HST = CAD$97,180.
As a Canadian I tend to think in terms of Canadian Dollars.
The point really, is that there aren't very many cars in the same price point or higher, and the sorts of people who buy them are the sort to whom money is no object. Model 3's release will put a serious damper on MS demand, as MS currently enjoys a fair amount of phantom demand by being the only real long-range EV on the market and so many people who would otherwise buy something like a Prius move up market.
racer26
Active Member
Didn't doubt their existence, just am not sure if they've started delivering them to the Toronto area yet as I haven't seen one. At only 4 months old, or so, I'm obviously going to see a lot more of the pre-refresh ones.
It worries me too. Both model X and S see a tremendous uptake of the 60kWh model meaning overall this battery capacity will make up 50% of their deliveries going forward. Since the discount is $9k on half the cars, that means gross margin will be lower by 4500 per car sold compared to a base case of only the 75/90 availability. With average sales prices approaching 90k, that's a full 5% hit on the gross margin.
However, I don't think we will learn more about this tomorrow. Tesla was very careful not to start delivering any Model S last quarter. You can see this quite clearly in the tracking sheet. I believe this was done on purpose to save Q2 gross margins as much as possible. Note that, with the 'extreme ramp up' troubles, it is very possible that gross margins already took a hit from the a higher than normal number of rejects during April. The latter is a possibility however, not a given.
So the impact of the 60 model will hit in Q3. A lot of posters here are claiming that Tesla had already counted on this and that the refresh simplified production to such a degree that their production costs today are lowered enough to partially or even completely offset the discount. Sure, that is possible, but it is also not a given. And then we must consider things like the Yen getting stronger over the year which likely also has a negative impact on margins.
All in all, margins for sure is a number to watch tomorrow. If they talk them up, expect good news for Q3 (that refresh really bringing average cost down). If they don't really mention them, the other way around.
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Exactly, what I'm most interested in for tomorrow's ER is also the current GM and their guided GM for H2. I think they would probably say something like "even with the re-introduction of 60, we expect Model S gross margin still be near 30% and Model X near 25% at the end of they year". Again I think it's possible as I did some calculations before, they only need to lower the cost from suppliers (except battery) by about 20% to make the 60's GM the same as 75. I think it's doable given production basically nearly doubled, and they were in talks with suppliers for the Model 3 but could use this as leverage to get better price now.
Regarding to Yen, TSLA has something on the magnitude of $300M FX hedged exactly for this. So I don't think we need to worry about it.
racer26
Active Member
Do we think the Yen actually has any impact at all? I'd sort of expect Tesla to make their deal with Panasonic in USD, but either way, one of the companies is gonna eat the currency shift, unless Panasonic is buying raw materials in USD. Gigafactory should certainly remove any currency exchange issues.
Maybe S/X60 will make up 50% going forward, but that doesn't matter. What matters is if the buyer would have bought a 75 absent the option of the 60. Even then, it only matters if they don't later purchase the upgrade. If they do later purchase the upgrade, its a net +$500 to margin.
In order for giving up the margin to work, you *have* to sell a lot more of them to make up for it. It makes sense that if this idea is working that it would make up the lion's share of the cars.
For US shipment, typically around a week, it doesn't need 5K in transit. Majority of them has to go oversees, but so far available EU delivery number doesn't show July delivery spike.
racer26
Active Member
1100 for ROW might be too high. I would say it's in the similar range with EU. Note, July number includes more or less 5000 in transit by end of June. So Q3 S delivery could be well below 4000x3=12000. I don't know the X situation. Might be around 80000, so my Q3 delivery prediction is up to 20K. We shall see the real guidance tomorrow, I expect Q3 guidance 20K, Q4 guidance 25K, thus TM lower full year guidance to 75K. TM will claim it's still good number because it's 50% YoY growth on the face of flat/declining S sales.
TSLA is actually holding up fairly well now, given the macro environment today. Nasdaq is down nearly 1.5%, automakers reported crap numbers and oil just reversed course and plunged, below $40 now. I'm OK with TSLA being down just 2% under these circumstances.
Does anyone have insight into how much of an impact Tesla Energy may have on earnings? I've seen a lot of random articles like this indicating installs are happening, but I've yet to see any figures (think InsideEV style estimates) for what the number of installs might be:
What's the verdict? Australia's first Tesla Powerwall six months on
I'd have thought by now that many of those who've received PowerWalls would've popped up on this board but I haven't seen anything like that yet.
Are there barely any installs happening, or are there lots happening but they're just not joining this board to comment?
What's the verdict? Australia's first Tesla Powerwall six months on
I'd have thought by now that many of those who've received PowerWalls would've popped up on this board but I haven't seen anything like that yet.
Are there barely any installs happening, or are there lots happening but they're just not joining this board to comment?
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