The reason I didn't jump on the number 2017 for answering you was that 2017 is "far off in the future". This is a company that is watched daily, weekly and definitely quarterly. 2017 is a really hazy picture in terms of what will/can be done. We know they have talked about setting up and getting Model 3 assembly lines ready - and then starting to mass produce it by July 2017. If that doesn't happen, how many S and X buyers will come in to save the day by buying units to make up for any delays in Model 3. Perfection is assumed, but reality has many tentacles. Never assume perfection will occur. And so, now we see talk of new "solar roofs" as the next big thing. What I am waiting to see is will they put up a web page to "pre-order" a solar roof so they can announce some kind of order-interest like they did with powerwall.
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The reason I didn't jump on the number 2017 for answering you was that 2017 is "far off in the future". This is a company that is watched daily, weekly and definitely quarterly. 2017 is a really hazy picture in terms of what will/can be done. We know they have talked about setting up and getting Model 3 assembly lines ready - and then starting to mass produce it by July 2017. If that doesn't happen, how many S and X buyers will come in to save the day by buying units to make up for any delays in Model 3. Perfection is assumed, but reality has many tentacles. Never assume perfection will occur. And so, now we see talk of new "solar roofs" as the next big thing. What I am waiting to see is will they put up a web page to "pre-order" a solar roof so they can announce some kind of order-interest like they did with powerwall.
Krugerrand
Meow
That's one way of hitting 80,000. Another way is simply for Model S demand to continue to grow as it has been quarter after quarter. The truth of the matter is that the mix of vehicle types to get to 80k does not matter. What should be of more importance (to the bottom line, which is really what's got people yammering about bankruptcy, cash burn, cash flow, capital raise, dilution, convertible bonds blah, blah, blah...) is a continued high optioning rate of whatever vehicle people order.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Buying more shares is a nobrainer as long as they can collect 16% interest. It also doesn't make sense IMO if you are holding a large number of to refuse to get paid for loaning your shares. Unless your name is Elon your shares aren't going to make a difference in the SP. If you can recall them to vote or to exacerbate any squeeze why not profit from the shorts?
My opinion on MS-MX demand is if it's a problem Tesla can easily solve it by adding the HW required for autonomy. If you think MS-MX demand is even a possible problem then you can count on the M3 not being used to introduce full autonomy and the part 2 reveal coming later rather than sooner.
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Another factor that should boost Model S/X sales are Tesla's acceleration of its plans to open new stores and service centers in 2H 2016 and 2017. This will likely show up more in 2017 sales figures but still should have a positive influence on Q3/4 2016 sales.
From the Q2 SH letter:
From the Q2 SH letter:
"We are also accelerating store openings and plan to add a new retail location every four days on average during the remainder of Q3 and through Q4. We are adding stores in new population-dense markets like Taipei, Seoul, and Mexico City, while also adding stores in our most mature markets like California. The quality of our new locations is also improving as many shopping malls now consider us the new standard for an anchor tenant based on the amount of foot traffic that we draw and our very high revenue per square foot."
3Victoria
Active Member
Don't you think that the (over) reported problems with X production has muted the X orders? Now that teething problems are over, demand should rise. SUVs are supposed to be a big market.
I don't understand why some people on this thread act as though Tesla "cheated" or did something underhanded by coming out with a new model or new tech which in turn increases sales. It's literally Tesla's entire business model and one of its primary competitive advantages. Tesla is a nimble car company and is constantly pushing the envelope and tweaking its product.
So, build it into your models, bears: Tesla will release additional AP hardware and a larger battery pack with increased range before the end of the year. This has been telegraphed for months. The new offerings will increase demand and help them hit guidance. I'm sure it's built into Tesla's projections. They can't just whip this stuff out at a moment's notice when new orders come in slow for a week. It's been under development, just like I'm sure the 60 was the moment they saw the crushing Model 3 demand and opportunity to upsell a cheaper S.
So, build it into your models, bears: Tesla will release additional AP hardware and a larger battery pack with increased range before the end of the year. This has been telegraphed for months. The new offerings will increase demand and help them hit guidance. I'm sure it's built into Tesla's projections. They can't just whip this stuff out at a moment's notice when new orders come in slow for a week. It's been under development, just like I'm sure the 60 was the moment they saw the crushing Model 3 demand and opportunity to upsell a cheaper S.
There is unbelievably low volume today - 608K shares traded so far. It feels like a quiet before the storm... Would love to know whether SP will storm up or down...
I'm not sure where you're seeing the MS demand growth. MS production has been almost flat for the last 7 quarters:
11627 4Q13
11160
12807
13091
13530
12851
12145 2Q16
And based on the current VIN assignment rate, Q3 will fall within this same population. That's why I think that sales growth will have to come from MX.
11627 4Q13
11160
12807
13091
13530
12851
12145 2Q16
And based on the current VIN assignment rate, Q3 will fall within this same population. That's why I think that sales growth will have to come from MX.
Calvin.K
Member
looks like Tesla did some more changes to its Tesla.com home page still advertises model X&S but adds the Model 3 and powerwall to the mix Also interesting note Model 3 says deliveries begin 2017 not late 2017, not sure if the difference in wording is material or not...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
That's a slightly less generic answer than it appears to be. Obviously, Fidelity's mutual funds which hold huge blocks of TSLA and SCTY are going to vote their own shares, by recalling them. This confirmed that. But this answer, if correct, also answered a question about how that recall is going to proceed. The shares may currently be lent to Fidelity clients or to other brokerages. One alternative was that the recall would be done by pulling the shares back from Fidelity clients (forcibly closing their short positions). They seem to have told you that the larger Fidelity brokerage organization will be trading on their own behalf ("securing the shares on the exchange") to get shares to return to the mutual funds, rather than closing out the short positions of their clients.
Essentially, this creates steady buying pressure from Fidelity, until they've recovered all the shares. Fidelity brokerage has to buy enough shares on the open market to return to their mutual fund managers, which is going to be a constant buy pressure.
If the Fidelity mutual fund managers are increasing their shares at the same time, this creates even more buying pressure.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
This doesn't make sense for two reasons:
Do you really think they'll do that if there is a squeeze being triggered by buying shares to vote?
If they did that why wouldn't they want to vote both the shares that they loaned out plus the shares that they are buying.
The point is that at the time people weren't aware or ignored the depth of the issues...because this was going to be different this time! It is a game changer!
You don't understand tech or the Internet or the change in society!
Fidelity's mutual funds are technically separate legal organizations from Fidelity's brokerage (this is important legally, guys). There are two Fidelity mutual funds with particularly big positions in TSLA, if I remember correctly. The manager of one of them is particularly gung-ho. I am guessing that he has specifically asked for recall of the shares owned by his mutual fund. It is then up to Fidelity brokerage to figure out how to acquire those shares for him, and turn them over to him. This is separate from the question of whether Fidelity brokerage is collecing shares for voting on their own behalf.
Think of Fidelity Contrafund as a client of Fidelity Brokerage -- a client who has (probably) asked for their stock to be removed from the stock lending program. Does that make sense? I know this isn't exactly how it works, but it more or less is how it works; the fund has a set of trustees who are legally supposed to make decisions seperately from "what's good for Fidelity". If the fund manager says "We need to recall the stock to vote it", they're not going to want to override him, even if the interests of Fidelity Brokerage are different, because that would look bad.
I'll keep conservative until August number out. My theory is July (5K) + August (5K) + Sept. (8-9K). If August turns out to have much improved EU/NA number, then I'll change my mind. Just keep in mind, Q1/Q2 delivery is way below anybody's guestimate.
I should point out that we can assume that anyone recalling their stock for the vote will make it available to lend again *the day after the vote*. This should cause borrowing rates for shorts to drop quite suddenly as a large amount of stock is put back on the lending market, and that will probably cause a lot of shorts to open new short positions. So I think we are likely to see a post-vote drop in the stock price.
I'm just riding it all out; to a long-term investor it's mostly noise.
I'm just riding it all out; to a long-term investor it's mostly noise.
I wanted to lock in a rate, a while back. So instead of owning TSLA stock, I set up a synthetic long: sell puts and buy calls at the same strike price and expiration date. My guaranteed return is the difference (make it a credit!) between the money received for selling the put and the money paid to buy the call, and after expiration I end up with TSLA stock. (There are corner cases where I might end up without TSLA stock or with twice as much TSLA stock as I want: if the stock closes *exactly* at the strike price, or if someone on the other side of the put was an idiot.) Some downsides include potentially very complicated US tax treatment (section 1260), loss of long-term-holding status for capital gains purposes, and lack of liquidity. This is not investment advice.
As long as you can get paid money for lending out TSLA shares, you are very likely to be able to get a credit for selling a put at the money and buying a call at the money -- if you think about it, this makes sense, because otherwise market makers could run an arbitrage between the put-call spread and the lending rate (by buying stock, buying a put, selling a call, and collecting the interest with no exposure to the stock price movement).
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