That's true, but also remember the substantial hike when everyone was covering model 3 reservations? That was an over inflation and a massive move - since that didn't increase the fundamental value of TSLA NOW; only when those reservations convert. I feel this will have the same affect, though on a much smaller scale. TSLA have substantial new IP, which is valuable by itself, but add in the fact that customers will upgrade/buy Model S/X based on said IP... We're looking at a move back to at least the low 200s (likely even 210s if macro does well next week) IMO.
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Maybe the recent sighting with lidar sensors on a Model S was really something else (from today´s press call):
Tesla Autopilot 8.0 uses radar to prevent accidents like the fatal Model S crash
Tesla Autopilot 8.0 uses radar to prevent accidents like the fatal Model S crash
larmor
Active Member
Not sure here. They are improving their product, laying the foundation for larger volume product and cost is software. They are learning from their mistakes....
You may be right.
On the other hand, if major press outlets run a similar headline to the Electrek story below it might turn out differently:
Elon Musk sees 3x potential increase in safety with Tesla’s new Autopilot update
(FWIW I don't think they will but you never know -- I personally think Electrek hit the nail on the head for the take-home message of the day).
SebastianR
Active Member
Oh - that's easy: "Tesla updating their autopilot now, is just proof that their cars were evil killer machines that were fundamentally broken!!1!one!!eleventy11! - why else would they update their system?"
(Of course they will conveniently ignore, that until now Bosch didn't have drivers for their sensors available that allowed the current update - but then again, who cares? It's SA we are talking about...)
Sneak Edit: This must be a big blow to MobilEye, too. Their cameras are demoted and radar takes over. Wonder how BMW & Co. are feeling about this neat little trick of looking 2 cars ahead (which btw. LIDAR can't do either)
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Yes, safety needs to be the emphasis, and was. After the Josh Brown accident, I've noticed increased concern in passengers when autopilot is turned on. Tesla needs 8.0 to bring the safety of the vehicle from 50% safer to several times safer than driving without autopilot so that the damage done by the Brown accident and by non-injury autopilot accidents since then can be overpowered with positive results.
Two potential upsides:
* Tesla WITH AUTOPILOT functioning needs to be recognized as the safest vehicle of its size on the road
and
* Critics of a gradual migration from Level 2 automation to Level 4 autonomous driving methodology need to be refuted with hard evidence soon that driving with Tesla Autopilot engaged adds SUBSTANTIAL safety to the drive during the process of that migration
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Well, tomorrow's price action won't be boring...
We've got:
1) Tesla Autopilot v8.0 blog and press conference
2). Reports on Apple Car setbacks.
3). Short shares recalled for SCTY merger voting (speculation)
And as a wild card, possible Macro volitility due to Fed
We've got:
1) Tesla Autopilot v8.0 blog and press conference
2). Reports on Apple Car setbacks.
3). Short shares recalled for SCTY merger voting (speculation)
And as a wild card, possible Macro volitility due to Fed
If Tesla can present apples-to-apples data showing something in the range of 50% reduction in accidents in the 3-6 months after AP 8.0 is introduced that would be fantastic. There will always be those who try to explain away the data or focus on the accidents that will inevitably happen, but the more hard evidence of safety improvements from AP the better.
I may be reading too much into this, but according to the quote from electrek (Elon Musk sees 3x potential increase in safety with Tesla’s new Autopilot update)
"I think we have 160,000 cars or something like that"
By the end of 2015 they had about 100k cars delivered. H1 had about 30k. Could this mean Q3 already 30k? with nearly 3 weeks left?
"I think we have 160,000 cars or something like that"
By the end of 2015 they had about 100k cars delivered. H1 had about 30k. Could this mean Q3 already 30k? with nearly 3 weeks left?
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
And the first ca. 40,000 did not have the hardware for AP, thus not contributing to the data collection.
I have no disagreement with TMCers response to the recent event and firmly believe in Tesla's approach. They have usefully taken advantage of their working arrangement with Bosch to improve radar technology. Further with Electrek's prediction Tesla will add four corner augmentation we would seem to be home free with eventual autonomous driving, especially as Nvidia seems to have achieved a similar result for cameras.
Soon, however, a simpler cost-effective solution for making driving even safer is needed now: requiring transponders and at least a primitive avoidance scheme on all new and used vehicles. Of course there will be some costs but they should be much less than the more exotic systems of Tesla, Daimler, Bosch, Nvidia, etc. It is imperative the industry leaders in this area get together on a common standard and then pressure government to implement them in a fair way for all. Of course there is already a model for this in the airline industry both from a technical perspective and legislative.
Pushing for this now as there is some reluctance on the part of the public about autonomous vehicles anyway, would be good politics in my professional view. Safety sells. It took too long for seat belts and airbags, but the industry facing the threat of dying both because of the need for clean energy and driverless cars needs all the stimulus in the right direction it can take.
Soon, however, a simpler cost-effective solution for making driving even safer is needed now: requiring transponders and at least a primitive avoidance scheme on all new and used vehicles. Of course there will be some costs but they should be much less than the more exotic systems of Tesla, Daimler, Bosch, Nvidia, etc. It is imperative the industry leaders in this area get together on a common standard and then pressure government to implement them in a fair way for all. Of course there is already a model for this in the airline industry both from a technical perspective and legislative.
Pushing for this now as there is some reluctance on the part of the public about autonomous vehicles anyway, would be good politics in my professional view. Safety sells. It took too long for seat belts and airbags, but the industry facing the threat of dying both because of the need for clean energy and driverless cars needs all the stimulus in the right direction it can take.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I expect little to no effect on TSLA share price from today's announcement.
I think there is little doubt, even among Tesla detractors, that the company has superior technology and evolves its products faster than any of its competition. IMO what is keeping TSLA at its current bounded range, which I see as roughly 180-280, is doubts about execution of mass production. The SolarCity merger is also clouding market confidence. Improvements to Autopilot are not going to mitigate these concerns.
If Tesla has a great quarter that exceeds expectations for Model S and X deliveries, the downward trend will reverse. I don't expect shares to permanently rise above the current range until Tesla proves it can deliver Model 3 and/or Tesla Energy at a profit.
I think there is little doubt, even among Tesla detractors, that the company has superior technology and evolves its products faster than any of its competition. IMO what is keeping TSLA at its current bounded range, which I see as roughly 180-280, is doubts about execution of mass production. The SolarCity merger is also clouding market confidence. Improvements to Autopilot are not going to mitigate these concerns.
If Tesla has a great quarter that exceeds expectations for Model S and X deliveries, the downward trend will reverse. I don't expect shares to permanently rise above the current range until Tesla proves it can deliver Model 3 and/or Tesla Energy at a profit.
You have to look at the likelihood of the vote by SCTY shareholders being in doubt at SCTY to guess whether those shares will be recalled. My read is that with the overall troubles with solar stocks right now, with the difference between SCTY price and the value Tesla would offer for those shares, with the difficulties SCTY recently experienced in finding buyers for its latest solar bonds, and with the enormous upside potential of TSLA, SCTY shareholders would be nuts to vote against the merger. For this reason, there does not appear to be a great deal of incentive to recall SCTY shares to vote, unless an organization is required to recall the shares for voting when an important vote is coming up. Bottom line: recall of shares at TSLA is more likely than at SCTY.
I think the SEC document states if SCTY does not vote YES, its considered a NO to the merger. This is different for TSLA, if you do not vote, its considered a neutral.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
that's what got sounds like to me. i would be shocked if Q3 deliveries are anything less than stellar
also i think this AP update is simply brilliant
Tesla moves really really fast in fixing any issues with its cars and sounds like their technology is light years ahead of any potential competitor
i think TSLA goes up big time starting tomorrow
Well, adding up all the produced cars - Model S hit 136,698 "produced" by end of Q2.
MX was at 9366 at end of Q2, so sum total is 146064 at end of Q2 produced.
"we have 160,000" would then include production of about 7500 each month of July/August. That is just over 161,000 by Sept 1. The rolling inventory from Q2 into Q3, even if it included variety of demo/loaner, would help sales hit roughly 21k-22k for Q3. There will be 2500 in transit at end of Q3 as well, which is similar to prior quarters.
Produce 21,500 in Q3, deliver 22k+, should be about the target to look for. I say a little low in production in order to work on helping cut some of the expenses requested by Musk - building only deliverable cars in the last 2 weeks of the quarter should be what they aim to do.
TMSE, I don't see 2200/wk at this time. The reason is Vin # assignment has not reached that level - at all, yet. MX vin #s in August were only just about 3000 while MS was about 4700. Just under 8000 for a 31-day month. July was about 8300, just about 2000/wk and July 8100, just under. Until the rate of Vin # assignment reaches 2200/wk, I doubt the factory is building at that rate. They may hit 2200/wk for a week in order to add it to the Q3 earnings letter, but it doesn't seem sustainable.
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I think this makes more sense to me. 30k in Q3 is just too good to be true.
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