Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

Well, adding up all the produced cars - Model S hit 136,698 "produced" by end of Q2.
MX was at 9366 at end of Q2, so sum total is 146064 at end of Q2 produced.

How did you come up with 136,698 MS and 9,366 MX for a total of 146,064 produced by Q2 2016? Tesla did not report production for 3 quarters: Q2 2013, Q3 2013 and Q3 2014. They also did not report separate numbers for MS and MX production - just total of 18,345 Mx and MS produced combined for Q2 2016. So how did you come up with production for these quarters? Snap shot below includes production and deliveries reported in shareholder's letters.

TMSE, I don't see 2200/wk at this time. The reason is Vin # assignment has not reached that level - at all, yet. MX vin #s in August were only just about 3000 while MS was about 4700. Just under 8000 for a 31-day month. July was about 8300, just about 2000/wk and July 8100, just under. Until the rate of Vin # assignment reaches 2200/wk, I doubt the factory is building at that rate. They may hit 2200/wk for a week in order to add it to the Q3 earnings letter, but it doesn't seem sustainable.

All of this is pure speculation. VIN counting does not produce reliable results suitable for determining production rate.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am seeing a ton of positive Media coverage of AP update and the news conference
I would be at a total loss if the SP does not react positively tomorrow
(Unless we have a black Monday or something)

Interestingly enough, I've seen TSLA bears on Twitter saying that they don't understand why TSLA hasn't cratered from all the negative press recently.

Price movements are often random and inexplicable.

 

[TrendTrader007]

okay for what it is worth here is my take:
I simply will never buy short term options again UNLESS i am 99% sure of success. that only happens in highly select technical situations e.g. a stock that gaps up huge on earnings surprise and then settles down and then i think is close to its 13 day EMA and about to make a huge bollinger breakout, which is far from the case here
in this market environment where Nasdaq is in a free fall and seasonally September is literally the worst month of the year i would not be willing to make any short term bets especially one which gives you little to no room for error, what if the market crashes and TSLA goes down to $145 to $150 (if it does then i would rather buy J18 leaps)
no matter how bullish i am long term about TSLA, short term i simply don't know
the mechanics of buying calls is nothing compared to getting the major trend/direction right
currently, TSLA is like a falling knife, in a clear downtrend
do i think the trend will reverse
yes i do
but betting on it in a unidirectional short term bet with time limited calls is NOT my cup of tea
right now the obvious is not all that clear
so i will refrain from betting any more on TSLA than i already have until everything becomes crystal clear to me which should happen in short order, maybe weeks to months

 

[vgrinshpun]

Radar can't see the color of a traffic light. The highest source of data is the camera.

Is it really necessary to see the color if position of each of the red, yellow and green light in the cluster is standardized?

 

[TrendTrader007]

yeah your reading into Institutional trading driving SP is correct, short interest actually decreased from 28% or so down to 22 % and in any case most of the daily buying and selling is largely institutional. i am heartened to see that Fidelity FMR raised its stake since i believe that is smart money. you probably know this already but Ron Baron is super smart investor and he is a big fan of TSLA with over $300 million position (albeit only a small portion of Baron Capital assets)
solarcity merger is just fine. Elon has a clear vision where he wants to take this company long term and SCTY fits right into it. i will vote in favor
i do think we are closer to a bottom in TSLA because of several technical and fundamental reasons. however, making a very short term bet has almost never worked for me (except a few times like the time when i made over ---$ profit in short term TSLA call options in 2014 or so but that came after i lost --- in TSLA before)
my investing philosophy is simple:
i buy rapidly growing, relatively young companies, mostly tech and i put all my money in a single stock and try to make a killing if i can so that over a long period of time my compounded rate of return is as high as possible.
i buy a company where i have great confidence in CEO and where the CEO has a major personal stake and a company is a virtual monopoly
i also shoot for long term capital gains
i pay attention to fundamentals as well as technicals
if i can double or triple my money say in a 2 to 3 year period with long term capital gains i prefer that
i need a minimum of 30%, preferably 40 to 50% return annualized on my portfolio over long term
i try to hold my call options over 12 months to get long term capital gains
with TSLA the major risk is to underestimate the potential returns possible and sell it too soon in a period of market volatility because if TSLA succeeds it could return 10 to 20 fold return in the next 10 years or so like AAPL

 

[geneclean55]

I can see TSLA bouncing sometime this week. Looking like Monday will be another tough one for the market though.

 

[ggr]

okay for what it is worth here is my take:
I simply will never buy short term options again UNLESS i am 99% sure of success. that only happens in highly select technical situations e.g. a stock that gaps up huge on earnings surprise and then settles down and then i think is close to its 13 day EMA and about to make a huge bollinger breakout, which is far from the case here
in this market environment where Nasdaq is in a free fall and seasonally September is literally the worst month of the year i would not be willing to make any short term bets especially one which gives you little to no room for error, what if the market crashes and TSLA goes down to $145 to $150 (if it does then i would rather buy J18 leaps)
no matter how bullish i am long term about TSLA, short term i simply don't know
the mechanics of buying calls is nothing compared to getting the major trend/direction right
currently, TSLA is like a falling knife, in a clear downtrend
do i think the trend will reverse
yes i do
but betting on it in a unidirectional short term bet with time limited calls is NOT my cup of tea
right now the obvious is not all that clear
so i will refrain from betting any more on TSLA than i already have until everything becomes crystal clear to me which should happen in short order, maybe weeks to months

Well, that's exactly what you should have been doing anyway. Trading short term options is a mug's game... I should know :-(

 

[AlMc]

I can see TSLA bouncing sometime this week. Looking like Monday will be another tough one for the market though.

Asian markets all down 1-2%. Because of our market on Friday or bellwether of what is to come tomorrow?

 

[geneclean55]

Asian markets all down 1-2%. Because of our market on Friday or bellwether of what is to come tomorrow?

Most likely both.

Futures looking ugly right now.
The markets were dumping throughout the day on Friday. Might want to continue tmrw.
I doubt Wall St was happy with the Hilary health scare news today.

 

[Chickenlittle]

As a 2013 Model S owner, these kinds of firmware announcements make me feel like I own an iPhone 4 while the company's talking about this crazy powerful iPhone 7. Note that if there are any actual firmware improvements -- visible to customers -- that pertain to 2013-vintage S's, even Elon has relegated them to the "don't even deserve a bullet point" status. Point made, Elon, point made.

What nonsense. You have been driving the car for 4 years and enjoy it. I owned a 2013 and would joke about getting antique plates. I traded it in this year for a 2016 to enjoy the new tech. I am glad it's not now outdated and can use the new system. I also had a 2011 roadster and did not begrudge tesla moving on. Electronics and cars can not all be updated and need to be replaced. You would prefer that no improvements be made so in 2020 the original 2013 will be equivalent?

 

[FredTMC]

Asian markets all down 1-2%. Because of our market on Friday or bellwether of what is to come tomorrow?

US futures off by 0.6%. Not horrible. Probably in sympathy for overseas markets.

I think even if US market is off a little tomorrow, TSLA will continue to have relative strength as it did on Friday. Wouldnt surprise me to see TSLA up tomorrow (Short Recall effect for voting, Apple Car floundering, tesla press from AP8.0, TSLA oversold)

 

[stealthology]

IMO, it's just a matter of time until smart money, then taders, then some shorts put buying pressure on shares before Oct 3rd. A week before, 2 weeks before? I think Elon's been giving pretty clear hints regarding Q3.

It's pretty funny looking at the headlines on the AP news today. All the usual suspects have a negative headline, ie 'would have prevented death' (WSJ, Reuters, LA Times, etc).

 

[FredTMC]

IMO, it's just a matter of time until smart money/traders inject more cash into Tesla before Oct 3rd. A week before, 2 weeks before? I think Elon's been giving pretty clear hints regarding Q3.

Yep. As we move towards end of month, I think we'll see increased buying pressure. Per Elon letter to employees, tesla will likely have at least a decent quarter if not a complete blowout.

 

[tinm]

What nonsense. You have been driving the car for 4 years and enjoy it. I owned a 2013 and would joke about getting antique plates. I traded it in this year for a 2016 to enjoy the new tech. I am glad it's not now outdated and can use the new system. I also had a 2011 roadster and did not begrudge tesla moving on. Electronics and cars can not all be updated and need to be replaced. You would prefer that no improvements be made so in 2020 the original 2013 will be equivalent?

Might I remind the estimable Chicken that 2016 - 2013 = 3 years, not 4. And good for you that you traded in your 2013 "to enjoy new tech" in a newer model. I on the other hand am still enjoying old tech in an older model. I do not begrudge Tesla moving on; as a longtime shareholder I am counting on Tesla to move on. (I happen to not be that big a fan of autopilot or what it portends for society in the future. But if others love it that's their right. I do however love the sensors that *come* with autopilot and love the expanded, augmented situational awareness -- the "driver assistance" capabilities -- that all this new technology affords to drivers. Wish I had that hardware. Heck, my car is pre-parking sensors and I have the curb rash on all 4 wheels to prove it.) I would just like to see more longtime old bugs fixed and some basic functionality added to all Model Ss that are already common in nearly every other car on the road (for instance, better multimedia support). But this is the short term stock price thread. We can thrash firmware politics about in other threads.

Speaking of stock price, I'm not sure the new firmware will boost the price. I'll be delighted if it does, of course.

 

[tander]

Elon is required to vote all his SCTY shares (~22%) for approval under the Voting Agreement. The S-4 lays out in detail why Tesla's purchase is the best option for SCTY shareholders; alternatives are few and much worse. Recall of SCTY shares is extremely unlikely; the bigger phenomenon may be that institutional SCTY holders could be just exiting before the vote, particularly those who do not want to increase the TSLA percentage in their portfolios..

His 22% is almost the same number of shares sold short.

How did you come up with 136,698 MS and 9,366 MX for a total of 146,064 produced by Q2 2016? Tesla did not report production for 3 quarters: Q2 2013, Q3 2013 and Q3 2014. They also did not report separate numbers for MS and MX production - just total of 18,345 Mx and MS produced combined for Q2 2016. So how did you come up with production for these quarters? Snap shot below includes production and deliveries reported in shareholder's letters.

View attachment 194097



All of this is pure speculation. VIN counting does not produce reliable results suitable for determining production rate.

If you take a look at the 10K from 2015 they had delivered about 107k S cumulatively. I assume roadsters are not included in his tally number. So if you figure 107+whatever S and X they've made (or was he talking delivered) so far this year...

Yep. As we move towards end of month, I think we'll see increased buying pressure. Per Elon letter to employees, tesla will likely have at least a decent quarter if not a complete blowout.

I agree. Tesla's best quarter so far has been about 17k. This quarter they are aiming for about 24k? (2k a week, 2.2k would be 26.4k). Even if they fall short it will still probably be their best quarter ever, aim for the moon, land among the stars.

 

[vgrinshpun]

If you take a look at the 10K from 2015 they had delivered about 107k S cumulatively. I assume roadsters are not included in his tally number. So if you figure 107+whatever S and X they've made (or was he talking delivered) so far this year...

10K includes data on delivered cars, while we were discussing produced cars. One needs to consider car produced, as Elon was talking about all cars on the road, and they include not only delivered cars, but cars in the demo and loaner fleets.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tomorrow's headlines on Seeking Alpha:

"Tesla struggles with level 3 autonomy as competitors move to level 4"
"Tesla says lack of radar functionality in beta autopilot likely caused Florida fatality"
"Tesla doubles down on bet autopilot is safe enough without expensive Lidar"

 

[SPadival]

Tomorrow's headlines on Seeking Alpha:

"Tesla struggles with level 3 autonomy as competitors move to level 4"
"Tesla says lack of radar functionality in beta autopilot likely caused Florida fatality"
"Tesla doubles down on bet autopilot is safe enough without expensive Lidar"

LOL..

Whatever happened to Santos? He seems to have run out of TSLA bear thesis to write about (Giga factory is no longer Giga because there is a wall already between sections.. hahahaha).. Only Montana is active now. I stopped posting there because I got better things to do with my time. When I was posting there, Montana actually sent a couple of "emissaries" or most likely, sock puppets, who private messaged me to tell me how great Montana is and not to mess with him.

 

[tander]

10K includes data on delivered cars, while we were discussing produced cars. One needs to consider car produced, as Elon was talking about all cars on the road, and they include not only delivered cars, but cars in the demo and loaner fleets.

That's a good point with the loaners and demos, I wonder how many of those there are, a couple thousand?

I did the math on the delivered cars (not including loaners/demos) using 10k and press releases and it came out to 136,190 through Q2. Another thing that might be of relevance, was "160k" by this date or the number expected by the end of Q3? If the number was as of today and they are making 2k a week that's still another 6k produced in the next 3 weeks.

 

[Intl Professor]

LOL..

Whatever happened to Santos? He seems to have run out of TSLA bear thesis to write about (Giga factory is no longer Giga because there is a wall already between sections.. hahahaha).. Only Montana is active now. I stopped posting there because I got better things to do with my time. When I was posting there, Montana actually sent a couple of "emissaries" or most likely, sock puppets, who private messaged me to tell me how great Montana is and not to mess with him.

I always loved your posts and work on S.A. You and Randy Carlson and a very few others were/are great.