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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Good observation but I think your worries are a bit stretched. If they are still in any predicament that is serious, they wouldn't disclose it unless as required by disclosure norms. If it were so, they would do it carefully worded statements at the right time, not as a casual response to a question.

I interpret this way: They had faced some tough problems as listed, but they mostly overcame those or atleast mitigated them enough so that Elon can talk about them as a reflection of the troubles they went through.

I feel I am inclined to agree. I think these issues probably have been largely assuaged, otherwise he would not mention them.
 
Yes, this is all correct. In the scenario originally postulated, someone was talking about a synthetic long (long call and short put at the same strike price and same expiration date). They would become thinly traded. At expiration, either one or the other would execute, pretty much guaranteed, and you'd end up with stock. Assuming you had put aside enough money to buy the stock (which you should have).
Sorry I didn't go back far enough in the list of quoted posts. Your post seemed to imply that this happened at the time of the merger, not when the LEAPs expired, hence my clarification.
 
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I'm almost positive a number of large investors have taken advantage of the unjustified drop in Tesla's share price to establish a new position, increase their position to a level where it will be disclosed soon, and possibly work out some sort of partnership with Tesla.

It's a bit funny that anyone can say Apple has scrapped a project that may never have existed. It's very possible the project people are calling the Apple car is really a way for Apple to work/partner with other companies, such as Tesla. I'm still not convinced Tesla isn't a secret Apple incubator.
 
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Was there any a better time for Google and Tesla to work together?

Google, I bet, has a ton of information on working with radars, and Tesla has a ton of information on working with level 2 Autopilot in all sort of road conditions.

The feeling I got from several sources is that Google worked on a part of the problems, but not of enough of the rest of the problems to actually be able to deliver a NHTSA Level 4 or SAE Level 5 suite. And that their development arc might not actually get them there anytime soon, at least not for general purpose light passenger vehicles.

For some people Level 4 might just be that they a vehicle can drive completely unmanned within a specific use case. Like a bus route, or an amusement park, or something else like that. Basically, the SAE Level 4 versus 5, which NHTSA lumps together. In other words, you can have a bus that drives around in SAE Level 4 that never has a human driver in all the conditions it faces, but can't replace a human driver in all conditions that we expect for general purpose light passenger vehicles.

Not sure Google actually has much to contribute to Tesla's effort that isn't already in the research literature or essentially well known. And Tesla obviously does their own testing of various technologies to see if it helps and where it might lead them, as we have seen on various manufacturer test vehicles.

If you are interested in this area, do watch this interview with George Hotz:

As I have said elsewhere, he might not be right and he obviously has his own biased viewpoint, but he is about as candid as any commercial interested party in this arena.
 
Thinking really hard about converting all TSLA to SCTY so it converts to TSLA again. It's free money...
I have about 15% of my regular TSLA holdings in SCTY but I'd hesitate before going all in on that. There's a non-zero chance the merger doesn't happen. If it doesn't, I'd expect SCTY's share price to immediately drop to $5-10 and then who knows over the long run (taken private?). I'm fine with some exposure to that risk given the arbitrage gap, but not 100% exposure.
 
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Thinking really hard about converting all TSLA to SCTY so it converts to TSLA again. It's free money...

Sure, the spread is shrinking today. I think if SCTY can show a good Q3, the deal will very very likely to go through (Not sure whether the vote will happen before that). AFAIK, solarcity is already cutting cost to show a better balance sheet this Q. Tesla Q3 is likely to be good, possibly a blowout.
 
Any detail on what the deal is ? How much equity ?

Quantum Strategic Partners Ltd appears to focus mainly on Africa. Maybe this has a lot to do with the Give Power Foundation?

Remember how Elon donated ~ $250 million to a charity without stating which charity it was for? Anyone else thinking the charity was the Give Power Foundation?
 
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Doesn't seem going to be a strong close, heading down ...

Tell me high speed traders have nothing to do with this. With their capability to front or back load stocks so rapidly, Tsla is a perfect stock in our really uncertain macro environment and as a disrupter building out so much of its own infrastructure which confuses those who have only the traditional "metric"—e.g., loses divided by number of cars produced.
 
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OK, this quote concerns me:

"Michael Ballaban – Jalopnik

Hey Elon, thanks for taking this question. Yesterday you tweeted that it had been an unusually difficult couple of weeks. Was that just a reference to the SpaceX launch pad fire or was there something else going on?

Elon Musk – Tesla CEO

It’s just been a lot. We are still getting a lot of flak for the whole SolarCity thing which I think is unreasonable and you know, there’s a lot effort on the Autopilot, on the Model 3 development and getting the factory for the Model 3, and then the rocket exploding… [pause] … the worst few weeks ever really."

Hopefully I'm reading too much into this, but I see 2 potential issues here:

1. Elon has been speaking to TSLA/SCTY institutional investors and support for the deal is breaking down. I know he doesn't care about general media (which is always negative) so I think the only way the SCTY deal could weigh on him and contribute to the "worst weeks ever" is that there's a fundamental issue with the deal.

2. Heightened risk of Model 3 delay. The mention of the Model 3 dev/factory updates contributing to the worst weeks ever makes me nervous. It could of course be anything and a delay wouldn't break the company or anything, but it would have some short term impact if any developments are significant enough to report.

'..the worst few weeks ever, really..'.

Hasn't Elon been through some bad weeks in his lifetime? I can imagine stress from worrying if the SCTY deal will go through could be pretty high if this is the case. If the deal doesn't go through, that's really bad for him.

Shouldn't he be excited about the potential Q3 blowout? I do understand SpaceX is probably a little more important to him than Tesla though.

Sigh. Any more opinions on the SCTY deal going through?
 
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