And by "suppose to be" you mean 'estimated to be' where in Elon took pains to mention several times the "meaningful levels of uncertainty" and "the actual numbers in a given quarter could be quite different" when throwing out those estimates.
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And by "suppose to be" you mean 'estimated to be' where in Elon took pains to mention several times the "meaningful levels of uncertainty" and "the actual numbers in a given quarter could be quite different" when throwing out those estimates.
Here's an interesting analysis (very detailed and fairly long) from another poster on TMC. Don't know if it helps.
Tesla Disrupts Different
Also one has to consider the potential of monetizing the supercharger network (currently non-valued).
Possibility of monetizing technical (IT/Autopilot software) to other automakers, which the market currently does not value.
These are the "auto" parts of the picture. I am sure I am missing things.
The SoCal Edison deal is a single sale, signed and scheduled for delivery and payment THIS YEAR. Where are your numbers coming from? The original announcement?
The strawman is obvious:
They were absolutely not "revenue targets". They were rough estimates where as i said before Elon took pains to mention several times the "meaningful levels of uncertainty" and "the actual numbers in a given quarter could be quite different" when throwing out those estimates.
sundaymorning
Active Member
You really have to do some research on The Ford model T and how much scaling it accomplished. When compared to ford, Tesla's scaling is comparable to what model T was doing..
Regarding scaling in a flash. You're right, this is the auto business, which means competitors won't be able to scale in a flash neither, in fact, they are moving much much slower than Tesla, some even going backwards. With Tesla being this far ahead of the curve, in a capital intensive industry, in a hard to scale industry, in an industry where raw materials to produce batteries aren't readily available, where good engineers are heavily sought after, how do you think the field will be like in 5 years? In 10 years?
Dream big, thats the vision of this company. It's not the auto business like ICE, there's a lot less moving parts, also keep that in mind, production will become easier with time, execution, and planning.
It's only a matter of time before we go from 80k to 500,000k. Imagine the possibility beyond that, sure this isn't like gaining 1,000,000 users overnight, but 10 model S sold already equals to $1,200,000 in revenue. Have a little imagination.
it is not a rough estimate if you're commenting on activities 90 days away... i'm sorry, but this is simply fact. they did not meet expectations on TE... and that holds true today.
this discussion is based on the question of how to justify a TSLA valuation of $80b to $200b or greater as was suggested by a previous poster... TE to date does not influence this and my line of questioning is not related to Elon's credibility... it's simply does Auto justify it alone and if not can TE make up the difference.
It's interesting how these arguments keep popping up. Same thesis, how to value the company in growth mode? @TrendTrader007 's hypothesis of an increase in price is based on technicals. The rebuttal/query is based on ideas of fundamentals. I will quote Murphy from "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets." (page 5).
"The fundamentalist studies the causes of market movement, while the technician studies the effect. The technician, of course, believes that the effect is all that he or she wants or needs to know and that the reasons, or the causes, are unnecessary. The fundamentalist always has to know why."
Italics are the author's.
"The fundamentalist studies the causes of market movement, while the technician studies the effect. The technician, of course, believes that the effect is all that he or she wants or needs to know and that the reasons, or the causes, are unnecessary. The fundamentalist always has to know why."
Italics are the author's.
mmd
Active Member
Looks like the dam of inventory cars just broke.
$9,300 off inventory Model S 75D - end of Q3 firesale
$9,300 off inventory Model S 75D - end of Q3 firesale
Not 90 days, 120 days away. What makes it a rough estimate is prefacing it strongly with high levels of uncertainty. And like Elon has explained on earning calls with similar questions regarding when the first M3 will ship. Focusing on initial shipments is missing the forest for the trees. The early production numbers are pretty insignificant in the big picture, what is significant is when the exponential ramp happens for TE.
there's a happy medium to everything in life... being one or the other of either of these "types" of investors is most likely going to end badly... but recognizing both approaches exist and exploring each of them will probably end well... if what you're suggesting is questioning the upside possibility is futile... then I am in complete disagreement with you... this should always be the question. and that's all I was asking.
Q215 ER was on Aug 5... Q4 began on Oct 1... so it's less than 90 days. seriously... this should not be the argument.
we are now heading into Q4 of 2016 about 1 year later and we are discussing a $40m project when we're supposed to be discussing $400m projects... and you're telling me I'm missing the forest through the trees?
Yes it should not, the estimate relates to what happens during the period of q4. Not the start.
And Elon literally prefaced the Q4 2015 estimate with the comment:
"again, just to preface with meaningful uncertainty, $40 million to $45 million in stationary storage in Q4 and maybe as much as 10 times that number in for next year."
This is getting pointless, apparently you can't comprehend the part in those estimates where he specifically highlighted "meaningful uncertainty" and "the actual numbers in a given quarter could be quite different".
3Victoria
Active Member
I think TE is still an infant. Waiting for the new inverter and a good battery supply. It looks like it is a year behind. However, the $40M project is just a tree, a British project* is another --- the forest is in the near future (2 years?). I have seen quite a few recent articles about TE topics both at a utility level and individual. EM will have a much better handle on potential growth, since Tesla will have received queries of interest.
* - Tesla Motors Inc's (TSLA) First European Grid Scale Powerpack To Be Installed In UK
* - Tesla Motors Inc's (TSLA) First European Grid Scale Powerpack To Be Installed In UK
i don't want to beat this horse any more... if Elon ended the statement with "a probability of +-95%"... we wouldn't be having this discussion... but he wouldn't have said it if that was his expectation. when trying to quantify probability of forward PPS projections with a potential magnitude of 2x to 4x and justifying it by factoring Tesla Energy into the equation... all one can do is use historical data (if it exists which it does) to evaluate this.
so what is the likelihood that Tesla Energy will contribute significantly to a PPS rise to $400 or greater?... the answer based on historical evidence is most likely nothing... but as a previous poster pointed out... there is still potential for a ramp in TE... so that is [speculatively] part of the equation...
but still... must be cautiously introduced. therefor... my final post on the subject is this:
TE potential going forward into fy17/18/19 would equate to $100m/$400m/$2b which is basically the formula Elon originally put out in 2015 but is now delayed... and then factoring in a risk coefficient due to the evidence over the last year of let's say 50% likelihood...
TE might contribute somewhere in the range of $1b over the next 3 years.
which in my opinion doesn't significantly impact the justification for a 2x to 4x PPS increase.
therefore... I will be valuing TSLA on three factors going forward:
1) Auto
2) Investor enthusiasm (which is quite high on this board)
3) Infrastructure (charging stations, etc. as was pointed out by another poster)
while also adjusting for competitive impact as other companies and stories progress.
thanks for the discussion all.
3Victoria
Active Member
I have found the recent discussion quite good. We disagree with details and interpretation, but perhaps agree on Tesla's growth and potential. Tesla is mainly a car company at the present time, but it is pretty obvious that it is growing out of that with expansion into energy and solar.
We had 10011 cars produced end of Q2. To have a shot at 2k/week we need 1k MX or 13k extra for the quarter. That would put the highest VIN we need to see at 23 000. I don't believe we have, but we are not yet at the end of the quarter of course.
I hope people are following along in the Model S delivery thread. You'd think Tesla is giving cars away for free! Everyone and their mothers are finding deals and buy a "pre-owned" car. Surprised there isn't more discussion in here about what's going on and how it'll affect Q3 numbers and TSLA.
Why the fire sale? Are they basically not shipping internationally at all this month in order to maximize deliveries? How will this impact their margins, if at all? Are they desperate to generate demand or are they just trying to kill their numbers? Will they have a killer quarter (25k+ cars *delivered*)? If so, how will that affect TSLA short term? So many questions. The email from Elon is just the tip of the iceberg... I'm really interested in hearing about this on their Q3 call and even shorter term seeing the Q3 delivery numbers.
The simple argument is that they're trying to beat Q3 numbers by a lot so that'll raise the stock price and they can raise another round. But if it was that obvious wouldn't the stock price already start going up? Or is it another "we don't believe you Tesla/Elon" moment where if proven wrong can lead to a massive jump in stock price?
Why the fire sale? Are they basically not shipping internationally at all this month in order to maximize deliveries? How will this impact their margins, if at all? Are they desperate to generate demand or are they just trying to kill their numbers? Will they have a killer quarter (25k+ cars *delivered*)? If so, how will that affect TSLA short term? So many questions. The email from Elon is just the tip of the iceberg... I'm really interested in hearing about this on their Q3 call and even shorter term seeing the Q3 delivery numbers.
The simple argument is that they're trying to beat Q3 numbers by a lot so that'll raise the stock price and they can raise another round. But if it was that obvious wouldn't the stock price already start going up? Or is it another "we don't believe you Tesla/Elon" moment where if proven wrong can lead to a massive jump in stock price?
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