Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

Montana Skeptic is still skeptic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...record-deliveries-wreck-income-statement#alt2

BUT, the really interesting part is at the end:
he will probably stop writing about Tesla ;-)

I do not understand - what is the problem? A man can't stand for what he believes in?
Push come to shove, one can always write about risk of earthquakes.
Sissy!

 

[schonelucht]

Interesting. 5000 - 5500 in transit seems like it's going to be the standard going forward. It's been about the same number in transit each time they report for a while now, right?

It's also about double from when they had only a single model and half the production rate. So yes, I think 5000 is going to be the new normal and there will be a comparable number of cars in transit by the end of the year. I mean, it is spelled out in the press release yesterday.

We expect Q4 deliveries and production to be at or slightly above Q3

Deliveries and production was grossly in line this quarter so if both are slightly higher next quarter, they'll also be grossly in line and therefore transit numbers should be about the same too.

 

[myusername]

market cap increases by $1.5 billion in premarket on 20k shares... on the news that Tesla made $500m more in revenue than expected on 25k cars instead of 20k cars.

 

[SuryaDham]

from IB news-feed:
Baird maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $338
Baird maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $338
Issuance Date: 2016-10-03

 

[NOLA_Mike]

market cap increases by $1.5 billion in premarket on 20k shares... on the news that Tesla made $500k more in revenue than expected on 25k cars instead of 20k cars.

Will you be adding to your (short/puts) position?

 

[myusername]

Will you be adding to your (short/puts) position?

yes... not sure when... i'm hedged with short term calls so if it continues to move up from here, i'm fine.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's also about double from when they had only a single model and half the production rate. So yes, I think 5000 is going to be the new normal and there will be a comparable number of cars in transit by the end of the year. I mean, it is spelled out in the press release yesterday.

I think that pipeline will have to grow significantly higher than 5K units. Assuming average blended time in transit (time from the moment car leaves Fremont to the moment it is received by the customer) of 4 to 5 weeks and steady state run rate of 2400 units/week, the pipeline should contain 9,600 to 12,000 cars. This will allow even deliveries across all months of a quarter instead of back loaded deliveries currently, which will reduce expenses and stress on the delivery personnel. This will also allow allocation of the production to various geographical areas (NA, Europe, Asia, Pacific) proportional to rate of the incoming orders, rather than batching it to maximize delivery of cars produced within the given quarter during the same quarter.

So I believe that the pipeline will have to grow steadily, but *after* the Q4, throughout the 2017.

 

[schonelucht]

The problem is that my model doesn't adequately account for the accounting changes. Someone please help my tiny brain process it. My understanding is the old way had three things left out of gaap profit: 1. Rvg on tesla financed cars, 2. Rvg to banking partners on non directly leased cars and 3. Lease accounting for all direct leases (only can book lease payments received?)

There is also stock based compensation which must be counted under GAAP rules but Tesla excluded it from its non-GAAP numbers.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Looks like there was a 6.0 in Northern California in 2014:

Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

Funny timing. Let's start recycling FUD. Pretty funny if this is the best they can bring up

 

[Chickenlittle]

I think it would be prudent to also mention there are asteroids roaming the solar system which could pose a threat to planet Earth with little warning.

Yes I agree. Would buy puts to short entire market but how would I collect? Also worry about complete total nuclear war

 

[vgrinshpun]

from IB news-feed:
Baird maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $338
Baird maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $338
Issuance Date: 2016-10-03

Via StreetInsider.com:

"Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated his Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) after the company significantly beat the firm's delivery estimate in Q3.

Tesla announced it delivered ~24.5k vehicles in Q3, surpassing the firm's estimate of 21k. Management expects production to continue to ramp, indicating Q4 deliveries should meet or exceed Q3 numbers.

Kallo expects shares to trade higher as TSLA executed on production and reiterated 2H:16 guidance.

Meanwhile, the analyst expects bears to focus on the upcoming capital raise, but they continue to recommend shares ahead of the potential deal due to several upcoming catalysts, including: ramp of the gigafactory, additional news around the Model 3, and potentially the Paris Motor Show.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $204.03 yesterday."

 

[Quesder]

Come'n, $212? Are you kidding me? I was expecting $230, or at least $220. Shorts, cover! What are you waiting for.

 

[myusername]

"U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open Monday as investors geared up for more economic data and digested earnings results from Tesla over the weekend."

cnbc premarket ticker headline... this is ridiculous. "The many trillion dollar markets will move today because Tesla sold 5k more cars than anticipated!"

I'm sorry... this is just silly... and it's delivery numbers... not "earnings" CNBC.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Still 0 shares available to short at Fidelity, but interest continue to slide, 15.25% this morning, indicating growing availability of TSLA shares for shorting (elsewhere).

As of 8:02, there is 0 shares available for shorting at Fidelity, interest is steady at 15.25%

 

[geneclean55]

Am I correct that both the 200 and 50 DMA are at 215 now ?
Would be great to break those today

Yes, i believe a number of daily and weekly resistance lines up around 215. Would be awesome to get above that. What is the next resistance level you see beyond that?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some heroic effort to prevent the inevitable...

 

[Chickenlittle]

yes... not sure when... i'm hedged with short term calls so if it continues to move up from here, i'm fine.

Go for it. We love you

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yes, i believe a number of daily and weekly resistance lines up around 215. Would be awesome to get above that. What is the next resistance level you see beyond that?

I see next two levels of resistance at $227.15 (8/24/2016) and 236.63 (8/01/2016)

 

[NOLA_Mike]

"U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open Monday as investors geared up for more economic data and digested earnings results from Tesla over the weekend."

cnbc premarket ticker headline... this is ridiculous. "The many trillion dollar markets will move today because Tesla sold 5k more cars than anticipated!"

I'm sorry... this is just silly... and it's delivery numbers... not "earnings" CNBC.

"Investor Enthusiasm" can be quite strong in this one...

 

[dc_h]

"U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open Monday as investors geared up for more economic data and digested earnings results from Tesla over the weekend."

cnbc premarket ticker headline... this is ridiculous. "The many trillion dollar markets will move today because Tesla sold 5k more cars than anticipated!"

I'm sorry... this is just silly... and it's delivery numbers... not "earnings" CNBC.

Value investors make this mistake. It's not about current sales, it's about present value of future earnings. An idea that won Black and Scholes a Nobel prize. Future projections just became more likely. If TE delivers serious numbers in Q4 and starts guidance, you might want to rethink your shorts.