Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Sort of, they delivered more than they produced in q415' and don't remember q116', but as a % of production they went down this quarter. Will be interesting to see what they do this q4.


I think about it in terms of what happens in the next recession/depression. IMO electric cars are just going to grab even more market share as people stable their Hummer etc., so for that reason I look at Tesla as low risk. Also from the corporate DNA standpoint, Tesla just plain does things differently, they move faster, they break barriers, they are the new kid on the block pushing boundaries where the incumbents are kind of the opposite. Risk aside though, I expect the stock to be volatile for years to come.

Also, @FredTMC, my hat and my hair is off to you. PM me and let me know your fav charity. That's Will Forte btw, not me, but I'm serious about the charity, thanks, I got a real kick out of that! I like bets where pretty much everybody wins!

Hi Tander! Thanks again for this friendly wager. You're right, we all won. Boy, that was damn close to 25000. Exceeded my wildest expectations.

Here's to all the "longs"! The world is a better place because of Tesla pushing the advent of sustainable transportation

Please direct the funds to TMC as a donation. They deserve it.
I'll also send TMC a $200 donation.

Mods, please let me know where to send the check.

Congrats everyone,

FredTMC

 

[LargeHamCollider]

...I believe that so-called "blue chips" are much, much riskier right now than the markets are giving them credit for. Before I went heavily into Tesla stock, I sold out of my oil stocks, and I sold out of most of my financial stocks (kept a few insurance companies), and I sold out of my utility stocks, because IMO all three sectors are *extremely* risky in the next 10 years. Oil and utilties are liable to be smashed by the disruption caused by the switch away from fossil fuels, and the major financial companies are nests of crooks which makes them very very risky. But investors are acting as if they aren't risky. This makes them ultra-dangerous to invest in. Putting money in Bank of America or Exxon is like giving it to a guy you met on a casino riverboat who says he has a great business opportunity for you.

Compared to those, Tesla is less risky.

Exactly. This deserves to be repeated^^^

 

[austinEV]

Wow, take a weekend off reading this stuff and end up with 4 hours of homework. Awesome results!

I think you head shaving people should maybe wait until the investors letter. 24,500 could become 25,001 then chaos!

I'm trying to figure out how the market will respond to the deliveries. I think that the results will be a modest bump in the SP. I also think that this is a prelude to gaap profits, which I think will cause a bigger bump. Hopefully right after (or before) the TE V2 introduction and (I hope) GF Cell production announcement.

Please can we stop wasting bandwidth explaining why 2 + 2 equals 4? Why Tesla is a better investment than GM?

That is an important catalyst that had fallen off my radar. We should see GF produced cells in Q4 (hopefully) which will be another huge confirmation that these plans are coming together. The GF represents a big overhang of investment/return. Having cells come out is pretty much immediately accretive to the bottom line.

My only concern with the numbers is, like @MitchJi , I thought we might see more of a 50:50 mix of S:X instead of S outdelivering X 2:1.

Otherwise: Nicely done TM!

I am happy with the S/X ratio. By selling more S it tamps down the "peak model S" theory that was making the bear rounds, and suggests that there is more growth available on the X if we presume that the demand is closer to 1:1 as I suspect. If it had been MORE X than S bears would scream this was just clearing the old Model X order book and is not repeatable. This sets up the future best imo.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'd say so. Although I've been pretty off lately.

Ok, so I've been trying to learn a little about candlestick charting. Here's my take on SCTY and TSLA (last two days):



SCTY looks like it is forming a "Doji Star"--positive indicator. (big red down day, followed by tight green gapped down)

TSLA formed a "Harami + "--positive indicator. (big red down day, followed by smaller green)

My understanding is that candlesticks tell market psychology (up or down) but do not provide price points.

 

[BornToFly]

I've worked IT contingency planning for over a decade... I would not design a 30 billion dollar IT company with one datacenter in California for exactly this reason. Auto/factories are a much different thing... odds of single known asteroids hitting earth are about 1/250k in decades... odds of major earthquake in CA...

"The California Office of Emergency Services told KEYT.com that this equates to about a 1 percent increase in the likelihood of a major earthquake along the fault line through Tuesday." -- 1/100.

Dude. Seriously? A 1% increase over the previous likely hood. What was the number? If it was 1/10000 before (probably lower than that), it is now .000101? You are getting desperate. Kind of sad....

 

[andrewt3000]

Would love to, but have prior commitments. With that, I want to leave these thoughts:

1) Q2 model X gross margins were BEFORE the line was @ full utilization. Can we expect margins to improve on it to match model S?
2) So if gross margins for Q3 is ~25-29%, and the model X price offsetting the model S60 prices, is $100k per vehicle revenue reasonable? Based on that, I'm guessing $2.45 billion revenue, and $500 - 600 million gross profit.

Will that be enough for GAAP profitability?

I think we will see GAAP profitability. I think this is a conservative estimate of how you could see GAAP profitability.
24.5k deliveries
2.5B revenue
22% GM
550M Gross profit
-200M R&D
-340M SGA
10M net profit

See my spreadsheet of historical financial results that I used to make these predictions.
tsla financials

 

[Xpert]

I think we will see GAAP profitability. I think this is a conservative estimate of how you could see GAAP profitability.
24.5k deliveries
2.5B revenue
22% GM
550M Gross profit
-200M R&D
-340M SGA
10M net profit

See my spreadsheet of historical financial results that I used to make these predictions.
tsla financials

I'm on board with GAAP profitability. I think smart analysts will figure this out way before ER. I will be holding my portfolio of 100% of TSLA LEAPS until Q3 ER at least. Shorts are totally screwed!!!

 

[SunCatcher]

there was a 3.2 magnitude earthquake about 15 miles from the Freemont factory on Sep 28... curious if there are known/published contingency plans in the case of varying sized "events"?... (no... i'm not hoping for an earthquake... just curious)

Well, we probably WILL get an earthquake tomorrow… caused by the stock price of TSLA going through the roof. And after this quake? Well, you know… TSUNAMI.

Bada Boom!

 

[racer26]

I'm pretty amused by how deliveries honed in on the head shaving wager number almost like max pain.

24,500 *conservative* instead of the +/- 1% accuracy we're usually given. That's pretty much the 25k wager threshold.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm pretty amused by how deliveries honed in on the head shaving wager number almost like max pain.

24,500 *conservative* instead of the +/- 1% accuracy we're usually given. That's pretty much the 25k wager threshold.

You think maybe someone in Investor Relations wants to see some folks walking around with Tesla logos shaved onto their heads?

 

[Tenable]

You think maybe someone in Investor Relations wants to see some folks walking around with Tesla logos shaved onto their heads?

I was debating having the T logo done if I had lost. I figure I'll look terrible with my head shaved anyway, may as well provide a shaved explanation. ;-)

 

[Jayjs20]

Just a small side note, but I found it amusing that invest.com currently has a 100% bullish member's sentiment right now

TSLA | Tesla Stock - Investing.com

I didn't know 100% was possible.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Just a small side note, but I found it amusing that invest.com currently has a 100% bullish member's sentiment right now

TSLA | Tesla Stock - Investing.com

I didn't know 100% was possible.

Reporting/member bias probably. Nasdaq has it as 78% bullish (545 reporting).

Tesla Motors, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

 

[Gerardf]

National holiday in Germany today, so no trading in TSLA in Frankfurt as direction.

Asia and (rest of) Europe are green. Looking forward to a nice day

 

[MikeC]

Looking good in pre-market. I'm seeing $208.85.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Montana Skeptic is still skeptic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...record-deliveries-wreck-income-statement#alt2

BUT, the really interesting part is at the end:
he will probably stop writing about Tesla ;-)

 

[Gerardf]

Montana Skeptic is still skeptic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...record-deliveries-wreck-income-statement#alt2

BUT, the really interesting part is at the end:
he will probably stop writing about Tesla ;-)

Yes, I noticed that as well (Facts/fiction thread). 'Interesting' timing.

 

[hobbes]

National holiday in Germany today, so no trading in TSLA in Frankfurt as direction.

Asia and (rest of) Europe are green. Looking forward to a nice day

Interestingly, tradegate (smaller retail investor online exchange) is open in spite of the holiday. 4% up right now (on volume of 607,000 EUR).
Tradegate Exchange

Yahoo finance gives me $211,75 pre market which is in line with tradegate (or more likely, vice versa )

 

[Gerardf]

Am I correct that both the 200 and 50 DMA are at 215 now ?
Would be great to break those today

 

[Runarbt]

Montana Skeptic is still skeptic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...record-deliveries-wreck-income-statement#alt2

BUT, the really interesting part is at the end:
he will probably stop writing about Tesla ;-)

Oh.. What a loss! ;-)