Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[brian45011]

Hopefully someone can explain this to me like I'm five years old. Don't be afraid to use crayons.

The GAAP/non -GAAP reconciliation appears at the end of the share holder letter:

"Our non-GAAP revenue and gross profit is determined by adding back the deferred revenue and related costs for cars sold with resale value guarantee and where we have collected, or will collect from a bank intermediary in a matter of days, the purchase price of the car in cash. For cars leased directly by Tesla, we recognize lease revenue and related costs over the lease term and the same way for both GAAP and non-GAAP purposes. Our non-GAAP expense and per share information also exclude non-cash interest expense [$31.8 million] and stock-based compensation. [$67.3 million]"

All this is up in the air depending on when Tesla implements the changes in FASB rules (See p 9 of the 10Q--Recent Accounting Pronouncements-{too long to paste})

 

[Irishjugg]

"U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open Monday as investors geared up for more economic data and digested earnings results from Tesla over the weekend."

cnbc premarket ticker headline... this is ridiculous. "The many trillion dollar markets will move today because Tesla sold 5k more cars than anticipated!"

I'm sorry... this is just silly... and it's delivery numbers... not "earnings" CNBC.

It sounds small when you say 5k more cars than "expected" (though no one who pays attention expected 20k).

However when you put it correctly, which is to say 25% more cars than expected, it better captures the magnitude of the beat and the reasons for the move.

Thinking in absolute rather than relative terms truly harms your thesis.

 

[dennis]

Montana Skeptic is still skeptic:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/400...record-deliveries-wreck-income-statement#alt2

BUT, the really interesting part is at the end:
he will probably stop writing about Tesla ;-)

I believe that is referred to as "capitulation".

 

[myusername]

It sounds small when you say 5k more cars than "expected" (though no one who pays attention expected 20k).

However when you put it correctly, which is to say 25% more cars than expected, it better captures the magnitude of the beat and the reasons for the move.

Thinking in absolute rather than relative terms truly harms your thesis.

"However when you put it correctly, which is to say 25% more cars than expected"

you've just nailed it... 5k cars not only sounds small... IT IS SMALL... 5k cars as I pointed out yesterday is the equivalent of 4 hours of GM's production...

but when you say "They Sold 25% than Expected!!!"... now there's a headline... right?... as long as you don't compare Tesla to any other auto manufacturer... then Tesla is looking phenomenal!

 

[Yggdrasill]

you've just nailed it... 5k cars not only sounds small... IT IS SMALL... 5k cars as I pointed out yesterday is the equivalent of 4 hours of GM's production...

but when you say "They Sold 25% than Expected!!!"... now there's a headline... right?... as long as you don't compare Tesla to any other auto manufacturer... then Tesla is looking phenomenal!

No one is claiming Tesla is a huge car company. It is a growth company, and when you have 25% additional growth on top of what was expected, that will be appreciated by investors.

 

[myusername]

No one is claiming Tesla is a huge car company. It is a growth company, and when you have 25% additional growth on top of what was expected, that will be appreciated by investors.

"No one is claiming Tesla is a huge car company"

and yet it currently trades at a valuation higher than other large auto companies and comparable to some of the largest.

 

[Quesder]

looks like short is very aggressive. or there are many weak longs who are selling on news. I am kind of disappointed though.

 

[aznt1217]

Right, but you can't claim Tesla can't sell enough cars, and then say 25% more cars sold is a small number. It makes no sense.

 

[Navin]

Early morning weakness is expected as market makers adjust option positions.. need stock price to be as low as possible so they can unwind - should see some strength thereafter -- also look for some nice movement in SCTY as the arb trade gets some sunshine with tesla getting its numbers in order -- this is all just my opinion -- I want to thank "my username" for forcing me to re-register so I can log in to put him on ignore

 

[Drax7]

Equally important, tesla is about to go from production hell to production heaven.
Now they can focus on further refining the car and the manufacturing process for
Model X and S, extracting further efficiencies and gross margins.

A virtuous reinforcing cycle .
Expect their moat to increase .

 

[vgrinshpun]

"However when you put it correctly, which is to say 25% more cars than expected"

you've just nailed it... 5k cars not only sounds small... IT IS SMALL... 5k cars as I pointed out yesterday is the equivalent of 4 hours of GM's production...

but when you say "They Sold 25% than Expected!!!"... now there's a headline... right?... as long as you don't compare Tesla to any other auto manufacturer... then Tesla is looking phenomenal!

Tesla IS phenomenal! Just compare model S sales to the similarly priced offerings from the best automobile companies: BMW 7 Series, MB S Class, Audi A8/A7, etc.

 

[ZenMan]

From IB:

There are at least 48.8K shares available to sell short. Fee rate 16.32%

 

[myusername]

Right, but you can't claim Tesla can't sell enough cars, and then say 25% more cars sold is a small number. It makes no sense.

my claim has never been that Tesla does not have demand within its current segment. i'm short because things like a typical price to sales for the auto industry is 0.5 and ALL auto companies fall in the range of 0.2 to 1.0... and Tesla trades between 6x and 8x price to sales... and if the stock rises... that only gets worse.

 

[myusername]

Tesla IS phenomenal! Just compare model S sales to the similarly priced offerings from the best automobile companies: BMW 7 Series, MB S Class, Audi A8/A7, etc.

now extract just those auto lines from each of those companies and then assess their value... BMW currently has a $40b market cap... how much of that value is the 3 series?... how much is the 7 series?

 

[Krugerrand]

yes... not sure when... i'm hedged with short term calls so if it continues to move up from here, i'm fine.

Heart the conviction.

 

[Yggdrasill]

"No one is claiming Tesla is a huge car company"

and yet it currently trades at a valuation higher than other large auto companies and comparable to some of the largest.

Right. The huge car companies don't have any real assets when looking a few years ahead. The ICE technology is pretty much obsolete, and they are burdened with huge dealer networks. They likely won't be able to be sufficiently nimble to adjust to the changing market, and they will likely go bankrupt quite soon.

A massive value-destroying black hole of a company should be less worth than a small but profitable company that's investing in the future.

 

[Lessmog]

Very interesting to watch the shadow boxing from one (1) ignored person by the responses provoked, over the last few pages! Like one of those SE Asian theatres. Only miss the brass tympani music. Well, I can always jingle the coins left in my pocket.

 

[winfield100]

but when you say "They Sold 25% than Expected!!!"... now there's a headline... right?... as long as you don't compare Tesla to any other auto manufacturer... then Tesla is looking phenomenal!

did you look at the Paris auto show and the EV's presented and NOT shown there. very little competition now and not a lot for the not too distant future, few "itty bitty citi" cars

 

[30seconds]

my claim has never been that Tesla does not have demand within its current segment. i'm short because things like a typical price to sales for the auto industry is 0.5 and ALL auto companies fall in the range of 0.2 to 1.0... and Tesla trades between 6x and 8x price to sales... and if the stock rises... that only gets worse.

And how many of the ALL auto companies are growing at 100% y/y? Right, none.

 

[theschnell]

Alright, I expected a little bigger bounce to SP but not much. I believe the price will rise slowly as we get closer to ER, and then I do expect a bounce after ER *when* they are GAAP profitable...