Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

I came up with non-GAAP eps very similar to yours (0.38). Writing details in the Q3 discussion thread.

Here if anyone wants to read and criticize.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1763534/

Also while writing the details, found a mistake I made previously. My estimate for Q3 non-GAAP eps should be $0.25.

 

[tander]

This is just the way I see it, and there's LOTS of people on here who know more than I do:

You're right, the dilution/fear of dilution has caused a suppressed share price. However, I feel like Tesla Enery and even moreso The M3 is too much of a no brainer HUGE success story to not do what it takes to raise more money, even if they've been raising more than they initially planned in years past.

Next year, while Model 3 and Tesla Energy begin to show how real they are, S & X should be able to hold down the fort through expansion, more cars on the road = word of mouth, better margins/labor efficiencies, and new product features. Before you know it, Tesla issues 2017 guidance, which will be achievable.. then it's like, wait how many cars are they doing this year? Great news is there's basically no more concern over production capability. GAAP profitability will be our near term punch.

Man, only if Tesla was a private company. But then, I likely wouldn't be important enough or have enough to invest in it.

It seems like there are two issues with the merger. First is dilution, which should be 5-10%, not bad if you believe SCTY is undervalued, but significant if you think it is. The second is whether or not you think the merger is one company buying an undervalued company, or one company being used to bail out another.

Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Wonder if they'll end up posting 3q numbers.

 

[dc_h]

"However when you put it correctly, which is to say 25% more cars than expected"

you've just nailed it... 5k cars not only sounds small... IT IS SMALL... 5k cars as I pointed out yesterday is the equivalent of 4 hours of GM's production...

but when you say "They Sold 25% than Expected!!!"... now there's a headline... right?... as long as you don't compare Tesla to any other auto manufacturer... then Tesla is looking phenomenal!

I had an Econ professor explain to me why china would never matter. Too small a base. We had just done future value estimates and he explained the power of compounding. He just couldn't fathom a 100 billion dollar 1987 economy becoming a 10 or 20 billion dollar 2016 economy. We argued for a while. I gave up the fight. This is not a value investment forum. It is about a high growth stock that many think will grow 70% for another decade.

Basically what anyone thinks doesn't matter. The math will play out. Any model of the future we may have in our mind is a model. Mine happens to be right, but that's an opinion until proven otherwise.

 

[The Blue Owl]

He just couldn't fathom a 100 billion dollar 1987 economy becoming a 10 or 20 billion dollar 2016 economy.

Trillion

 

[TMSE]

Right now, for custom MS orders in the USA, the expected delivery date is late October, whereas for MX, it is late November. This could suggest that Body Line #2 is being brought down for blending of MS into this line.

My comment above likely needs to be revised in light of the MS:MX mix of 15,800 : 8,700 for Q3. Does it mean MX continue to be low in the mix? Or, can we expect a quick ramp-up of MX to say 12,000 for Q4? If so, 28,000 delivers for Q4 should be easily doable.

 

[sundaymorning]

This looks awfully familiar...

View media item 116098

Ah yes, the old GM argument. You can produce millions per year, yet go broke during the last recession. Meaningless...What's wrong with the picture here?

1. Low margins.
2. A bloated work force.
3. Poor allocation of resources.
4. Poor future outlook.
5. No new technology.
6. Poor quality.
7. Poor brand image.
8. Too many layers of beuracracy.
9. No visionary CEO.
10. The list goes on and on.

Would I want to invest in a company with this type of outlook? No thanks.

On the other hand, Nokia and Motorola produced and sold millions of phones when AAPL dreamt of only owning 5% of the market share. It's all about the new kid on the block, the old guards need to innovate, or else be obsolete.

 

[schonelucht]

Assuming Model 3 reservations was $395,000,000, that's about $285 million in S+X deposits, or about 50,000 S+X vehicles. Note that the number includes some $40k or so signature X deposits for Europe and Asia.

Number also includes Chinese customers who need to pay import duties ahead of delivery, customers who paid their cars in full a few days ahead of delivery etc. With 5000 cars in transit, this can add up to such a large sum that the customer deposit number is not a very reliable marker on the Tesla car backlog.

 

[nienco2]

The chart and the conclusions are so stupid, I almost didn't bite. They have more than one model now. Sales of Tesla vehicles is up over 100% from last year. 100% growth is not a demand problem in anyone's book.[/QUOT

So my point, "stupid"as it may be, (no insult taken) is to simply point out what actual numbers look like, as opposed to percentages. I think the S is the most important product for the next 12 months, so probably worth highlighting. As to the X ???

 

[esk8mw]

We need to review this in light of the MS:MX mix of 15,800 : 8,700 for Q3. Does it mean MX continue to be low in the mix? Or, can we expect a quick ramp-up of MX to say 12,000 for Q4? If so, 28,000 delivers for Q4 should be easily doable.

I take it to mean much of the 5500 in transit is Model X to non-US countries. There's still a Model X backlog outside of the US and they appear to be working furiously to clear it. On the EU thread I noticed the Model X deliveries were quite high.

I look at it this way. Model X VINs are around 22k, maybe close to 23k. Add in the Sigs and you have about 25k Model X built or in process. Only 15,944 have been delivered. I assume something like 1000 are in the demo/loaner/inventory fleet worldwide. 25k - 17k = 8k Model X built or with VINs assigned, but not delivered. And don't tell me there's huge inventory - even when everything was up for sale in Q3 there were never many X inventory for sale.

I'm sure it's possible they skip VINs or there's something else I'm missing, but that's a significant disparity. I bet something like 4000 are en route to customers as we speak. I think X will be in that 11-12k range for Q4 as production improves, RHD is manufactured and non-US backlog is cleared.

 

[techmaven]

Number also includes Chinese customers who need to pay import duties ahead of delivery, customers who paid their cars in full a few days ahead of delivery etc. With 5000 cars in transit, this can add up to such a large sum that the customer deposit number is not a very reliable marker on the Tesla car backlog.

True, but it's the best number we have. One can view it on a relative basis instead of an absolute basis too. Really only cars destined for China have pre-paid. Even if you assume there's a 1,000 of those, and various Sig deposits, we're still talking about 35k to 40k vehicles. And I was very generous on the Model 3 deposits, that Q2 number may already have some cancellations and excessive multiple reservations removed from it.

 

[techmaven]

My comment above likely needs to be revised in light of the MS:MX mix of 15,800 : 8,700 for Q3. Does it mean MX continue to be low in the mix? Or, can we expect a quick ramp-up of MX to say 12,000 for Q4? If so, 28,000 delivers for Q4 should be easily doable.

Every X produced is an S that wasn't. I do think they are looking to get to 50:50 mix.

However, a higher mix of X's means a higher ASP and likely improving margins on the X, which had the furthest distance to go in that regard.

 

[generalenthu]

Well, they definitely didn't get it to 212.x.

 

[3Victoria]

Here's a great tool: Carboncounter | Cars evaluated against climate targets Shows graphs of various factors over a wide range of cars.

(Thanks to @mspohr from Interesting quick read on Hydrogen costs currently )

And associated paper: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.6b00177

 

[schonelucht]

True, but it's the best number we have. One can view it on a relative basis instead of an absolute basis too. Really only cars destined for China have pre-paid. Even if you assume there's a 1,000 of those, and various Sig deposits, we're still talking about 35k to 40k vehicles. And I was very generous on the Model 3 deposits, that Q2 number may already have some cancellations and excessive multiple reservations removed from it.

It's not just Chinese customers that prepay. Customers that trade in for example, pre pay as well. Europeans as well. Even in the US there are rascals that don't just bring in a cheque on delivery day but do an electronic wire transfer a few days ahead. Honestly a backlog of 35k Model S/X makes no sense. If you order a car today, they start building it one week from now for a delivery later this month. Europe they deliver your car next month which means they must start production at the very latest sometime end of October (and that is really pushing it). For Chinese deliveries in the hands of the customers by December, that means production done early november. That's 5-6 weeks of production tops. Or 12k cars. Add in 5k in transit, 3k 5 seater Model Xs and the absolute best case scenario for the total backlog, is 20k. I really can't see how to get to anywhere close to 35k. More realistically I would be surprised if the backlog, defined as confirmed cars that are not yet delivered is higher than 15k. The factory backlog, defined as cars that are confirmed but not yet started production is likely much more shallow. Somewhere in the neighbourhood of 6k would be my best guess.

 

[FredTMC]

The fast money traders were funny today. I tuned in to see what BS they were spewing...

3 guys like it and one guy hates it. He always hates it.

They did discuss all the relevant points: solar city acquisition drag, cash burn, gross margin concerns, current inflection point at the moving averages

Overall takeaway was if it gets thru $215 then it should go to $250

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Ah yes, the old GM argument. You can produce millions per year, yet go broke during the last recession. Meaningless...What's wrong with the picture here?

1. Low margins.
2. A bloated work force.
3. Poor allocation of resources.
4. Poor future outlook.
5. No new technology.
6. Poor quality.
7. Poor brand image.
8. Too many layers of beuracracy.
9. No visionary CEO.
10. The list goes on and on.

Would I want to invest in a company with this type of outlook? No thanks.

On the other hand, Nokia and Motorola produced and sold millions of phones when AAPL dreamt of only owning 5% of the market share. It's all about the new kid on the block, the old guards need to innovate, or else be obsolete.

Was in reference to another member here spewing similar rhetoric. Probably the same person.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The fast money traders were funny today. I tuned in to see what BS they were spewing...

3 guys like it and one guy hates it. He always hates it.

They did discuss all the relevant points: solar city acquisition drag, cash burn, gross margin concerns, current inflection point at the moving averages

Overall takeaway was if it gets thru $215 then it should go to $250

I have made a lot of $ in the past listening to @guyadami.

 

[FredTMC]

I have made a lot of $ in the past listening to @guyadami.

Cool. It's the Tim Seymore (sp) dude with the slick hair that is the tesla hater. I think he's probably got friends that are short.

 

[stealthology]

SCTY shareholders: Do you think the SCTY deal could really be even slightly delayed due to the SunPower lawsuit (Oppenheimer cautioned with it today)?
SolarCity (SCTY) Stock Higher Despite Bearish Oppenheimer Note

 

[3Victoria]

Likely those are just typical language in SEC filings. They list all potential problems, no matter how unlikely. The 4 lawsuits are unlikely to affect timing, since the remedies are usually monetary, if any.