Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Sorry folks, but the cash upfront for large power pack purchase is pie-in-the-sky. Any public company who pays billions up front is going to eviscerated at their shareholder's meeting. Any public utility would likewise have to answer to the PUC.

If they are re-purposing high rises, many have stand-by diesel generators on their roofs to power essential functions like elevators. data centers, lighting etc. during Utility overload (outage) events. I remember working on a a demand curtailment program for P&GE with half a dozen BOMA managers of several large office buildings near the foot of Market in the early 1980's.

Those rooftop generators (as well as any other pre-built generators) are for the building's utilities, NOT for customer equipment. Unless the customer owns the whole building, which most do NOT. PowerPacks give customers mid-term emergency backup options short of a service cut.

Edit: didn't complete my earlier thought.

 

[RobStark]

Sorry folks, but the cash upfront for large power pack purchase is pie-in-the-sky. Any public company who pays billions up front is going to eviscerated at their shareholder's meeting. Any public utility would likewise have to answer to the PUC.

Not if the discount for the purchase is greater than the cost of capital.

 

[brian45011]

If Tesla delivers on their "alien dreadnought" type factory, they will actually look more like a tech company. There will be almost no manual labor, substantial part of the pie will be spent on engineering and design, they will have huge differentiation and captive markets across many aspects of business. Sure they'll have raw materials, buildings and tooling to pay for, but how are those different from data centers other than raw materials?.

Here's a video about a new factory that Tesla's recent hire, Peter Hochholdinger,was involved with before joining Tesla.

 

[MitchJi]

I subscribe to a newsletter called Inside Electric Vehicles.
They linked this Morgan Stanley presentation by Adam Jonas.

Morgan Stanley

Thought it was awesome.

Agreed. Thanks for posting. Excellent!

 

[FluxCap]

Him reminding us that a SEC filing two days earlier contradicts Elon Musks tweet is very sober, useful and material information while everyone was lost in hallelujah fantasies about utility companies forking over a few billion to Tesla in 2017.

So another terrified bear I follow who is currently trying to backpedal on his entire bear thesis of financial insolvency has brought up "OMG but the PROXY STATEMENT" as if that matters at all. Here's the thing: the language in the statement makes it clear that Tesla will raise capital *only if it wants to* and obligates them to do nothing of the sort. The question of whether the proxy statement needs to be amended is ridiculously pedantic and idiosyncratic. The bear thesis that Tesla and Solar City are somehow a stone's throw from insolvency is now forcefully proven to be as ludicrous as we all knew it to be.

This is from the S-4 filed two days ago. Note the highlighted sections indicating the full discretion as to whether, when and how much to raise or not remains with Tesla management:

What would be ridiculous is if the price of TSLA did not immediately and forcefully reset upwards as soon as pre-market opens tomorrow, because the fringe bears have convinced mainstream Wall Street analysts to price in hypothetical financial apocalypse, which is now even more clearly false.

 

[myusername]

So another terrified bear I follow who is currently trying to backpedal on his entire bear thesis of financial insolvency has brought up "OMG but the PROXY STATEMENT" as if that matters at all. Here's the thing: the language in the statement makes it clear that Tesla will raise capital *only if it wants to* and obligates them to do nothing of the sort. The question of whether the proxy statement needs to be amended is ridiculously pedantic and idiosyncratic. The bear thesis that Tesla and Solar City are somehow a stone's throw from insolvency is now forcefully proven to be as ludicrous as we all knew it to be.

What would be ridiculous is if the price of TSLA did not immediately and forcefully reset upwards as soon as pre-market opens tomorrow, because the fringe bears have convinced mainstream Wall Street analysts to price in hypothetical financial apocalypse, which is now even more clearly false.

you seem like an angry person.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I hope it is not the 'Y' announcement. I agree that it will stimulate demand and bring in some more deposit money.
*Possible* negatives: It might Osbourne some X orders and it might also just have some existing '3' sedan reservation holders just switch their deposits to the Y. The latter applies to me. My nuclear family has 5 reservations for the 'sedan 3'. Four of those would flip to the Y *IF* it were to be released in a similar time frame

I doubt it will Osbourne many X orders going forward since Tesla has dropped the 60. IIRC CUV/SUV typically have a higher GM than comparable sedans (at least for ICE makers). So if 4/5 reservations flip to the Model Y then theoretically Tesla would make more money.

 

[nienco2]

It's even plausible that the cap raise is annulled because model 3 and associated cap needs are postponed.

Or that the MERGER ain't happening in Q4, if at all.

 

[tander]

IMO... I think Elon is simply saying "we don't NEED to raise"... I believe he's being completely truthful with that statement.

But, they could if they wanted to...I'm leaving that option/interpretation on the table.

If they completely ruled out a raise he would've said "we are not doing a raise in Q4"

Agreed, don't think he's completely ruling it out, it's never really off the table. If the stock price were to go up quite a bit for some reason, seems like they would just say oh we didn't need it but it seemed like a good time sort of thing. My first take on that tweet was a net negative because I thought it might be implying they didn't end up getting to profitably in q3 and therefore wouldn't go for another down round, but I don't know.

Who are you referencing? Oh - if it's that myusername troll I have him on my ignore list. I suggest most of you do the same. Too many more trolls like that around here and I'll leave this forum for greener pastures.

I 2nd that. I welcome dissenting opinions, especially since it helps keep things less biased and makes me think of stuff I otherwise wouldn't. We can always ignore them (which should probably be done more often than going back and forth or harassing them), and if they really are trolling there are better ways to deal with that too.

 

[ggr]

So what, a bit under $220 by end of the week? No delusion in Q4 and 2 product announcements..

(a) I like to think you meant dilution, and not delusion,
(b) capital raises are not necessarily dilutive anyway, since the extra shares are offset by the incoming money; it's a positive sign if none is needed, though.

 

[tander]

Or that the MERGER ain't happening in Q4, if at all.

There has been a ton of speculation and FUD, but the merger has had a very small chance of failing ever since it was announced. They probably won't even need the votes of retail investors and smaller institutions. SCTY has already started restructuring, it's coming with a bow on it. They don't announce these things unless there is a very high probability of success.

 

[3Victoria]

Another thread says:

Tweets with replies by Model3OwnersClub (@Model3Owners) | Twitter

Model3OwnersClub ‏@Model3Owners 1h1 hour ago
October 17th Tesla announcement confirmed by source is indeed autopilot related. New hardware started going into cars last week. #Tesla

So AP2 hw seems likely. (Fits with 1 week line shut-down, selling off of inventory.)

 

[GoTslaGo]

Another thread says:

So AP2 hw seems likely. (Fits with 1 week line shut-down, selling off of inventory.)

Excellent! Will get off my Model (Y)odelling now...

 

[MitchJi]

If Tesla delivers on their "alien dreadnought" type factory, they will actually look more like a tech company. There will be almost no manual labor, substantial part of the pie will be spent on engineering and design, they will have huge differentiation and captive markets across many aspects of business. Sure they'll have raw materials, buildings and tooling to pay for, but how are those different from data centers other than raw materials?

They don't need to deliver on that at all (zero) to shock the market. Five to ten times the output of a normal state of the art factory, which Elon said is one car every 27 seconds. The labor savings are substantial, but not anywhere close to 100%. Something like 50% fewer workers preforming more complex tasks.

 

[FluxCap]

Fine. You can read them someplace else. It's hard to find intelligent and useful information. Good advice is extremely valuable and difficult to find. Dumb advice and incorrect information not so much. It's hard for me to believe that Fluxcap is thinking about leaving and people are defending the useless drivel spouting troll that triggered that.


There are whole forums with much better informed bears than are on this forum. Maybe if you benefit from negative opinions you might be better served by at least getting the best negative opinions that are available?

Mitch I appreciate the sentiment greatly, and I'm sorry for venting some frustration. I apologize for being alarmist - I'm not going anywhere just yet (thankfully there's an ignore button which I suggest people use judiciously) but I think it's important to (as Vlad says) differentiate post-spamming trolls whose clear goal is to derail positive/constructive conversation from those who courteously and occasionally offer contrarian theses. This forum isn't called "fair and balanced investment club" but "Tesla Motors Club," and I consider this a place to share information essentially among Tesla friends and "fans." I have plenty of avenues to view permanent bear theses and rabid, vitriolic hatred of Elon Musk and Tesla (Twitter being the most wide-ranging and immediate), but I don't come here for that. Schonelucht, for example, adds significant value here. So does Lump (miss you man!), and jesselivenomore. Heck my good old friend @DaveT and I disagreed recently and it was an awesome discussion. This is a Tesla Club, and I think someone who deliberately attempts to derail discussions with massive post volumes of negativity, smily-face emoticon or no, detracts from this forum. There was another user banned who did nothing but post overly positive platitudes, and I fully supported that user's ban. Anyway /endrant. I'm not going anywhere right now, thanks to my ignore button.

Now let's get back to watching TSLA be awesome tomorrow, hopefully.

 

[nienco2]

They don't announce these things unless there is a very high probability of success.

Didn't know this.
Might want to watch SCTY tomorrow just in case.

 

[30seconds]

Goldman's falling out started over the summer... remember when one of the GS board members went off on Twitter?

Goldman Sachs board member slams Elon Musk's handling of autopilot death

Listening to a Goldman Sachs Board Member on disclosure?

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

O lordy

 

[RobStark]

weekend OT
Inside The White Vote: Ethnic Germans And Italians Love Trump, Poll Finds

A new poll run for BuzzFeed News, which delves into white voters’ self-reported ancestry, reveals surprising diversity in their political outlook. White voters who identify most strongly with their German or Italian heritage strongly support Trump, whereas those who self-identify as Irish, English, or Scottish are more evenly split between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Another thread says:

So AP2 hw seems likely. (Fits with 1 week line shut-down, selling off of inventory.)

My understanding of their relationship with MobilEye is that MobilEye is not going to allow them to use their products in any new iteration of AP, if this is correct and the announcement on the 17th is AP 2.0... that would mean Tesla Vision is coming. AP 2.0 would be truly huge.

 

[3Victoria]

More re AP2:

TrevP at Model#OwnersClub posted that a source has confirmed that it is Autopilot 2.0 Hardware and that Tesla started installation of it in vehicles last week. All this and the Jays up 2-0 in the playoffs at the same time. Love it.

Independent confirmation of the hw would be good.