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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I think a Truck and Coupe are just too hard. Model X territory. All new body, interiors etc. The cargo van could be a mostly stripped down model X with the expensive windscreen swapped out and simple doors. Then the interior could be done on a sort of ad-hoc final assembly line with much simpler parts. Yeah, not a likely theory but fun to consider. It would be a really efficient way to increase the unit volume and make use of their existing capacity, while addressing an untapped market.

Interesting possibility -- they definitely are thinking of using the X platform for other things (e.g. minibus). Would also fit nicely with getting into the truck business, which they obviously plan to do with Tesla Semi. Still probably wrong but nothing I've heard so far sounds obviously "right" so who knows ....
 
So the market is down on TM because, they are going to report the biggest quarter ever in the history of TM?
I would be cautious with this assumption. EM said 3Q was last chance to show a profit before raising capital. It may be that even this number of vehicles shipped didn't result in GAAP profitability. Therefore not a good time to try to raise $$$, hence his tweet.
 
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I think a coupe-S, or convertible-S, or any other S-variant is orders of magnitude more likely than any X-variant. They only just got the X line running properly.

That being said, I think both are very unlikely, and this announcement is probably AP2/TeslaVision (and maybe HUD/Tesla Glass)

I ruled out AP2 because it is not unexpected (at least here on TMC) but given the rumors you may be right. "Unexpected by most" could be a reference to the timing or capabilities of AP2 or AP2 hardware. Who knows -- honestly, I'm stumped!
 
I am trying to understand what happens at the hearing on October 14th in Delaware.

First, it's scheduled at 2:00pm, cases CA#12711,12723,12740 & 12745-VCS with the judge Vice Chancellor Slights in Wilmington, DE. It is in room 12c.

From the S4:

The Actions seek, among other relief, damages in an unspecified amount, rescission of the proposed Merger, and attorneys’ fees and costs. Certain of the plaintiffs have filed motions for a preliminary injunction to prevent Tesla from consummating the Merger or any vote thereon and motions for expedited proceedings. On September 23, 2016, the Court set a schedule for consolidation of the Actions and determination of a plaintiffs’ leadership structure, and the Court scheduled a hearing for October 14, 2016, to consider any motion for expedited proceedings. On October 10, the Court entered orders consolidating the Actions and appointing lead plaintiffs and lead counsel. Tesla believes that the Actions are without merit.

There are several possible outcomes. Two that I know of immediately:

1) injunction granted
2) cases dismissed
3) ???

Can any attorneys provide some insight as to what the possible outcomes could be?
 
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I would be cautious with this assumption. EM said 3Q was last chance to show a profit before raising capital. It may be that even this number of vehicles shipped didn't result in GAAP profitability. Therefore not a good time to try to raise $$$, hence his tweet.

Why would he tweet that? Far more likely that numbers and cash position are better than market realizes and Elon was dropping another hint that there position is better than market realizes and they could be just fine putting off a capital raise for a few more quarters.
 
Also bare in mind that they would need time to invite people for a product reveal.

I'm shooting for Tesla Glass, or showing off the HUD on the MX/MS

I was pretty sure it was only going to be AP 2.0, but working the HUD / Tesla Glass in on the same update might make sense. That gives them three quarters shipping the new hardware/software suite before the M3 hits.
 
I am trying to understand what happens at the hearing on October 14th in Delaware.

First, it's scheduled at 2:00pm, cases CA#12711,12723,12740 & 12745-VCS with the judge Vice Chancellor Slights in Wilmington, DE. It is in room 12c.

From the S4:



There are several possible outcomes. Two that I know of immediately:

1) injunction granted
2) cases dismissed
3) ???

Can any attorneys provide some insight as to what the possible outcomes could be?

IANAL, but:

Truly, I suspect there is only one possible outcome, and that is cases dismissed. They are baseless cases, brought up to attempt to hold TSLA hostage and extort them for settlement money. IMO, the cases should be dismissed and the plaintiffs brought up on extortion charges. That the US Legal system tolerates cases like this is completely dumbfounding.

As far as all actually possible outcomes, I would expect:
1) Injunction granted - TSLA and SCTY both tank, and the merger is locked up until the cases are dealt with.
2) Cases Dismissed
3) Cases not dismissed, but injunction not granted either. Merger goes ahead as planned, and the plaintiffs (maybe) get money later.

Such injunctions are only typically granted in cases where the damage done by not granting them cannot be repaired with money. If found to be guilty of some impropriety, Tesla can simply give money to the plaintiffs to make them whole, so such an injunction would be highly unlikely.
 
I should say I think the product announcement is AP 2.0. Unexpected by most is going to be how advanced it is. So that's what I really think, not a truck.

That said, a truck is pretty simple. Same interior as X except for back side, and then throw up panels around the back. Nonetheless it's not gonna happen. Neither the cargo van nor truck will be in this announcement. Was a fun thought though.
 
I am trying to understand what happens at the hearing on October 14th in Delaware.

First, it's scheduled at 2:00pm, cases CA#12711,12723,12740 & 12745-VCS with the judge Vice Chancellor Slights in Wilmington, DE. It is in room 12c.

From the S4:



There are several possible outcomes. Two that I know of immediately:

1) injunction granted
2) cases dismissed
3) ???

Can any attorneys provide some insight as to what the possible outcomes could be?
That's pretty much it. If it's just a hearing on the injunction, it's just injunction granted (lol) or injunction denied and case proceeds as normal (seeking damages, fees, etc.). At that point, they usually settle out of court, with Tesla paying them some nominal "go away" money.

I'm not sure if they are hearing dismissal arguments at this hearing. If so, it's either dismissed or not. If not dismissed, see above - probably a nominal settlement.

Bottom line is chances are next to 0 that the injunction is granted and next to 0 that the case proceeds to trial. They are after a weak settlement, that's it.
 
The one thing that puzzles me is that there are still no invites going out. This makes it less and less likely it is the actual showing of a new vehicle. As much as I would like to see Model Y in the flesh, I think things really start to point to AP2/Vision. That would be something they could release material on and invite a few reporters, but there is not necessarily a need to invite hundreds of people to go through a PowerPoint or show a video.
 
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The one thing that puzzles me is that there are still no invites going out. This makes it less and less likely it is the actual showing of a new vehicle. As much as I would like to see Model Y in the flesh, I think things really start to point to AP2/Vision. That would be something they could release material on and invite a few reporters, but there is not necessarily a need to invite hundreds of people to go through a PowerPoint or show a video.
I'm not thinking it is anything as big as a truck or some other new vehicle. But remember not so long ago Tesla used to do an opening event for each and every Supercharger coming online? Then as Superchargers kept popping up, they abandon all the fanfare. At some point Tesla is going to stop these huge elaborate parties/events for ever new product that comes along.
 
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