Gerasimental
Member
Tesla Semi is expected to be announced next year. Tesla is going to win the race to autonomous trucking as well as ride sharing. $$$$$ X2
Did he delete the tweet about the Semi? Can't see it.
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Tesla Semi is expected to be announced next year. Tesla is going to win the race to autonomous trucking as well as ride sharing. $$$$$ X2
Such regulations will be swiftly changed when confronted with the real hard data that demonstrably proves autonomous vehicles are safer than humans driving.While I cannot say a lot about the US Situation, I am afraid that TSLA ignores the European Situation and the established thinking about safety. We here in Europe have very clear standards regarding safety (EN 13849, EN 62061, btw according to what I know there is no such equivalent in the US). If you build a machine which consists of a control system and a mechanical system (TSLA is clearly doing both) and this machine can produce a risk for any human, you have to consider all these regulations. For example you will have to prove that the MTTF (mean time to failure) is lower than let's say once per 100 years. The timeframe now depends of course on the size of the risk. The problem is, that you have to consider and combine the MTTF values of each sub-system (e.g. the mechanical brakes, the analogue output signal, the control system, incl. processor and also the programing, all the cameras). Typically you can never reach the required combined MTTF values for such a complex system, would be even very difficult with full redundancy. The redundancy I do not even see currently, so I consider it as impossible to reach high combined MTTF values at all.
The only positive thing is that the German car industry tries to avoid that these regulations will be used for autonomous driving. However, you can be sure that there are standards to come within the next years. These standard will consider for sure the complete hard- and software (anything else doesn't make sense). Thus I am very sure that the now foreseen TSLA system will never allow autonomous driving in the EU (which I find very disappointing and also misleading by EM).
sounds good... but the data doesn't currently exist... and until then the suggestion that "autonomous vehicles are safer than humans driving" is only theoretical... and it isn't even proven that the "tool" that Tesla is building is even the right tool to collect such data.Such regulations will be swiftly changed when confronted with the real hard data that demonstrably proves autonomous vehicles are safer than humans driving.
Tesla is building the tool they need to generate that data.
they have proven this to YOU... dude... they have 150k cars on the planet... how exactly did they "prove" that Tesla Autopilot is safer than the other billion cars?Tesla has already demonstrated that AP causes less deaths. The factor was 2:1 in favor of AP driven cars. With full autonomy I'd not be surprised to see this number get even better quickly. All they need is cars on the road and that's exactly what they're getting starting from today.
sounds good... but the data doesn't currently exist... and until then the suggestion that "autonomous vehicles are safer than humans driving" is only theoretical... and it isn't even proven that the "tool" that Tesla is building is even the right tool to collect such data.
i find the lack of scientific reasoning on this subject crazy... EVERYTHING Elon has ever said about fully autonomous vehicles is only theoretical... and that includes yesterday's "product release".
I consider the price drop a gift. Added some premarket. Plan to add more during the day and next few days.In what rational universe is TSLA down while MBLY is up after this announcement?
"Do you have a better idea? Really, if so what is it?"Do you have a better idea? Really, if so what is it?
Where is the lack of scientific reasoning? Elon is putting forward a theory: autonomous automated driving can be made far safter than human driving. The validity of this theory will be empirically easy to test in the real world. We will have an answer. We must of course not jump to conclusions here, and say that there is overwhelming data to show empirically that the hypothesis is valid, but there is good preliminary data to suggest that it's a good and plausible theory. The next step toward making sure that theory does hold up to scrutiny is to get the massive amounts of real world data required, and it will of course have to be subject to regulatory approval which I assume will be gradually widened as the data pools up. Is this diffucult for you to wrap your mind around? Is your claim here on of incredulity - that you believe Elon's theory will likely turn out false? If so, considering your call to scientific reasoning, what data and what analysis is your case resting on?
Anyone who thinks that car sharing is going to dominate anytime soon should read this thread and the reasons why car sharing just doesn't work for MANY people:
Will you share your Tesla?
For some people car sharing makes sense. It could be great for students, or retirees, or other people who don't need full use of a car. For the vast majority of people I know, it is not a good idea. Really not a good idea.
"Where is the lack of scientific reasoning?"Do you have a better idea? Really, if so what is it?
Where is the lack of scientific reasoning? Elon is putting forward a theory: autonomous automated driving can be made far safter than human driving. The validity of this theory will be empirically easy to test in the real world. We will have an answer. We must of course not jump to conclusions here, and say that there is overwhelming data to show empirically that the hypothesis is valid, but there is good preliminary data to suggest that it's a good and plausible theory. The next step toward making sure that theory does hold up to scrutiny is to get the massive amounts of real world data required, and it will of course have to be subject to regulatory approval which I assume will be gradually widened as the data pools up. Is this diffucult for you to wrap your mind around? Is your claim here on of incredulity - that you believe Elon's theory will likely turn out false? If so, considering your call to scientific reasoning, what data and what analysis is your case resting on?
Miles driven per death.they have proven this to YOU... dude... they have 150k cars on the planet... how exactly did they "prove" that Tesla Autopilot is safer than the other billion cars?
Model 3 will be able to generate income to cover the car payment. Maybe not right away, but it's going to happen. Once people realize they essentially get the car for free, the waiting list will grow really fast. The new vehicle market is > 80 million a year.On the other hand, I know plenty of people - mainly younger than myself - who aspire to owning a Tesla, but certainly can't afford one, even a M3 is a tall order. However, in theory they could buy one, pimp it out on the Tesla Network, and maybe end up getting the car for free, or making a clear profit. Even those not previously looking at a M3 could now become interested as a pure business case.
But I do agree there will be some, maybe most, that would never do it, especially the older generations.
For sure TSLA has not demonstrated this. I fully agree with myusername that there is a lack of scientific results. The current assistance system doesn't save lifes in average and is clearly below the average driver regarding the capabilities. The comparison EM always likes to make is incorrect: just because TSLA has collected XXX miles on autopilot and only suffered YYY known deaths per mile in average doesn't mean that it does drive safer than a human. How many times did a human interact and avoided an accident which the AP would have caused? Nobody knows, but if I see such videos, I am sure there are many of them!Tesla has already demonstrated that AP causes less deaths. The factor was 2:1 in favor of AP driven cars. With full autonomy I'd not be surprised to see this number get even better quickly. All they need is cars on the road and that's exactly what they're getting starting from today.
"Do you have a better idea? Really, if so what is it?"
YES... make an affordable M3 and deliver it on time... what are they doing spending cycles on this?... Elon should be working on "the best factory ever"... and here we are talking about fully autonomous fleets of cars and about to talk about SCTY... all this does is further guarantee that the M3 will be late and next year at this time we will be talking about all this as reasons for the miss.