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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
So any bets on how soon we will se massive price target raises by analysts, based on the confirmation of the concrete plans for a Tesla Network of autonomous cars, where Tesla is organizing the ride sharing and taking a share of the profits? I'm betting very soon. (Sorry for some cross posting here from the other thread about the Tesla Network).
Let's start by giving credit where credit is due - to Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.
Auto Industry Is Ripe for Disruption
From his report earlier this year:
"The sooner investors can make the transformation, we believe the more industry events will make sense over the next 12 to 24 months, as the story of industry disruption likely unfolds," says Jonas, who first called out the emerging trend of shared mobility as early as 2014, and has since been exploring its ramifications through the auto industry, changes in consumer behavior and the evolving technologies reshaping this space.
"Vehicle sharing can only take your vehicle utilization to about 50%-60% of its full potential, in our view," says Jonas. "And as long as these vehicles are human-driven, logistical inefficiencies will persist. Autonomous vehicles on the other hand remove the human bottleneck and the economics change substantially."
"We see the first serious application of fully autonomous transport to be in the form of public-private partnerships at a hyper-localized level of a city center," Jonas says. "We expect a potential announcement of proof of reality in a North American metropolitan area as early as 2016."
And this from 2015, where he raised his price target to $465 based on the percieved value of [autonomous] Shared Mobility:
Tesla will be a leader in self-driving technology: Morgan Stanley
“We view this business opportunity as potentially additive to Tesla’s existing model of selling human-driven cars to private owners and see potential for this model to conceivably more than triple the company’s potential revenues by 2029,” said the note. “That is, selling miles in addition to selling cars.”
So Jonas was probably just slightly early to the party in 2015, but I definately expect him to significantly up his price target now, and for other analysts to follow.
Let's start by giving credit where credit is due - to Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.
Auto Industry Is Ripe for Disruption
From his report earlier this year:
"The sooner investors can make the transformation, we believe the more industry events will make sense over the next 12 to 24 months, as the story of industry disruption likely unfolds," says Jonas, who first called out the emerging trend of shared mobility as early as 2014, and has since been exploring its ramifications through the auto industry, changes in consumer behavior and the evolving technologies reshaping this space.
"Vehicle sharing can only take your vehicle utilization to about 50%-60% of its full potential, in our view," says Jonas. "And as long as these vehicles are human-driven, logistical inefficiencies will persist. Autonomous vehicles on the other hand remove the human bottleneck and the economics change substantially."
"We see the first serious application of fully autonomous transport to be in the form of public-private partnerships at a hyper-localized level of a city center," Jonas says. "We expect a potential announcement of proof of reality in a North American metropolitan area as early as 2016."
And this from 2015, where he raised his price target to $465 based on the percieved value of [autonomous] Shared Mobility:
Tesla will be a leader in self-driving technology: Morgan Stanley
“We view this business opportunity as potentially additive to Tesla’s existing model of selling human-driven cars to private owners and see potential for this model to conceivably more than triple the company’s potential revenues by 2029,” said the note. “That is, selling miles in addition to selling cars.”
So Jonas was probably just slightly early to the party in 2015, but I definately expect him to significantly up his price target now, and for other analysts to follow.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Considering the earnings report is in one week I seriously doubt there will be analyst upgrades/downgrades before that, but I would expect a lot of updates just after it even though some might wait for the event on 28th as well and maybe 1st of November financials information.
I agree, but would add "level 5 acceptable to regulators". Musk will of course claim that this new tech is good enough. But he also hired a new microprocessor design team. Why are they needed? Perhaps level 6.
The great news is that there is now plenty of new hardware capability to steadily add new features. This is good for TSLA, and good for pushing EV forward faster.
The bad news is that the margin in the base model 3 is now probably negative. But that may be O.K.
I'm still trying to figure out if Musk "bet the farm" by claiming that this hardware is good enough. The dude seems to like to take unnecessary risks from a shareholder perspective.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
A lot of shorts are banking on "sell the news." With a possible good ER coming next week the "risk averse" shorts will likely cover before then if "sell the news" doesn't happen. While TSLA is down a little bit premarket it's too early to tell at this point whether we will get "sell the news" or not.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
It would be interesting to spec out total cost of the full autonomy suite once someone does a tear down and we can get part numbers.
CCD/CMOS sensors are dirt cheap, the lenses aren't going to add much cost, the ultrasonic sensors are not expensive, the radar (if it's the same one AP 1.0 uses) is probably under $150 the nvidia hardware under $300...
I'd be surprised if total hardware cost for Tesla's full autonomy suite was greater than $1000.
CCD/CMOS sensors are dirt cheap, the lenses aren't going to add much cost, the ultrasonic sensors are not expensive, the radar (if it's the same one AP 1.0 uses) is probably under $150 the nvidia hardware under $300...
I'd be surprised if total hardware cost for Tesla's full autonomy suite was greater than $1000.
2019 leaps cannot get here soon enough. I'm going to likely roll my shares to ITM leaps and then write monthly way OTM covered calls against that position.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agreed. But it also does add complexity to the manufacturing. That said I too think these options will have great gross margins.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Jim Cramer warming up to Tesla. Like him or hate him, he moves markets. Hence the recent buying in premarket.
First things first, is speech recognition actually an easier problem? Or is it more difficult except for the fact that the consequences of a mistake are not as serious? I mean there is a lot more data in 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonics, and a radar than there is from one microphone. However, your point is still valid. Tesla still has to get the system operational before we can say they have a self-driving car. While I readily admit this may not be achievable, I also believe that if Tesla can't do it it is unlikely anyone else will and Tesla will have the lead in autonomous technology.
The bottom line is this is not a "huge risk" or anything like that. Worst case you have a slightly better autopilot. Best case is Tesla is the first car company with a fully self-driving car. If they don't achieve that they still sell a great car and will get plenty of Model 3 orders.
I am 70 years old and I view the fully autonomous car much as the flying car of my youth. Driving aids will help make things safer, but most of us will never see a fully autonomous car in our garage.
If the tool they are building doesn't work they can just build another one. Either way Tesla clearly has the most advanced driver assist package on the market and will do for some time. No other car on the road today has anywhere near the same level of sensors, computing power and capacity to upgrade in a timely manner.
Why do you think there is no scientific reasoning? The whole point of slowly upgrading autonomous capacity over time as testing can be achieved and confirmed is the embodiment of scientific thinking.
Ulmo
Active Member
2AM isn't an insane time for a huge personal project. This was really important to him. I know I went to bed thinking "he'll get it up before I wake up", which he did.
The video showed that it was a "learning driver". I would like to see a video every
And when volume ramps up with the Ξ the cost for that hardware will go down.
I have to admit that when Jonas was first beating the drum on this I thought he was way ahead of his skis, but this morning my head is spinning with the possibilities for profit, some of which are more short term than I expected. A certain percentage of Tesla buyers will pay $8,000 today for what this software option will deliver in the near term. That percentage will increase as the capability of the software expands. And Tesla can adjust pricing over time -- including segmenting software features (e.g. $X for parking assist, $Y for highway driving assist).
But Tesla Network is an even bigger profit opportunity than software upgrade fees, and while TN needs to be discounted by an uncertain regulatory environment, it definitely should not be discounted to zero. As of today, I'm with Jonas that the price of TSLA needs to reflect this opportunity. I don't agree with you, Johan, that the market will start to price this in "very soon", but sometime over the next 12 months this is going to start to have a substantial impact.
Of all the things I admire about Musk and Tesla, the long-term strategic thinking and execution we are witnessing is truly stunning.
he was ahead of his skis... with a bottle of whisky in his hand wearing jeans... and now Elon just bought you guys into it.
Stock Price action so far is nonsensical .
Safety sells, autonomous convenience sells, first mover advantage
Widens moat, etc..
The Price increase can be offset by taxi service and lower insurance.
And quasi insurance your car won't be absolete in near future.
The day is young
Safety sells, autonomous convenience sells, first mover advantage
Widens moat, etc..
The Price increase can be offset by taxi service and lower insurance.
And quasi insurance your car won't be absolete in near future.
The day is young
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Krugerrand
Meow
I'm afraid that some are stuck thinking that nothing ever changes or can change - and right quickly.
You're not allowed to sell cars in the United States without going through a dealership network - lots of established rules, regulations and laws. Oops!
No privately owned rocket company will ever dock with the ISS and fully reuseable rockets, bah, humbug! - lots of established rules and thinking existed about that. Oops!
I tell you, The World Is Flat!!! Oops!
Fully self-driving cars won't be here for 10 (whatever) years. Can not be done sooner. Oops!
Don't you worry one little bit. When the data is collected and shows that computerized, self-driving cars are way safer than people, whatever 'situations' and 'thinking' and 'rules/regulations/legislation' that currently exist anywhere in the world will undoubtedly change. You should be more afraid of it becoming against the law to manually drive because that has a greater chance of happening then self-driving not happening.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Or they could pool their resources and share the car amongst themselves. Autonomy makes 'scheduling' a breeze. The car can pick up and drop them off at their various meetings, appointments etc...
The older generation may not want to share their car, but they certainly will love the freedom it gives them. Heck, nursing homes and assisted care facilities could offer self-driving cars as part of their services.
Whelp, I added some more shares this morning at $198. I imagine the roller coaster ride will continue for the next several months at minimum, but <$200 just felt too good an opportunity to pass up given last night's announcement.
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