Yes, I know.
But you said "US Deliveries are up".
Inside EV disagrees with that.
My mistake: I read it as "back up, not "backed up"
I apologize.
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Yes, I know.
But you said "US Deliveries are up".
Inside EV disagrees with that.
My mistake: I read it as "back up, not "backed up"
I apologize.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
The rest of the market today has been declining steadily since the morning and bringing down TSLA / SCTY with it (in addition to the merger event tonight). Just look at the price action when you plot a chart overlap with the NASDAQ, DOW J, SPY, S&P 500, TSE, etc.
I have small buy limit set @ 180. Will double load @ 160 and load the truck if we hit 140-150. JMHO.
Value Ev, you are misquoting me. Stop it.
I said "U.S. deliveries are backed up until December" two posts previously. Please reread my post and correct this huge error you just made.
Repeating someone else's idiocy doesn't make you right. Firstly, stock price is meaningless. Market capitalization is meaningful. There are plenty of car companies that make less than a million cars per year and have a higher market cap than Tesla. They mostly happen to be the companies that Tesla is hurting a lot in both sales and performance. Secondly, why would Tesla stop at a million cars per year? Thirdly, you're ignoring the possibilities of Tesla Energy/Solar City. I could go on but won't bother.
Yes, i like reading his opinions, i specifically noticed that he made no updates or predictions at all leading up to q3 which was somewhat unusual, which lead me to believe he wasn't sure at all how it would play out. My other qualm with his shorter term market posting is that he has a tendency to be coy and list his brilliant moves in hindsight. So if Tesla shot up after q3 he would pop up and tell us in retrospect how he saw it coming for x reason and found a brilliant entry just before the big run up. Just as his early sep 1st insight that $200 was fair price but not bargain, seems like good advice now, but I would be way more impressed if he had reaffirmed that opinion before q3 release instead of staying quite. Again, that isn't to say he doesn't contribute at times with good insight.
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TSLA was a momo stock, much more volatile than rest of the market
I apologize.
I read it as "back up" - and that came after someone else said sales were up or something like that.
LOL - I suppose the fact that you're back/here does give one data point in support of your assertion that "all the smart posters...have now moved on"...
Last year in Q4 Tesla delivered about 3K more cars than it produced. This happens when during first couple weeks of the quarter production go to Asia, next 4 or so weeks of production go to Europe, and 6 or so last final weeks of the quarter go to NA. Due to delivery time this results in few cars delivered in first and second month of the quarter, with virtually all cars produced during the quarter delivered in the last month of the quarter. This also empties cars in transit pipeline at the end of the quarter.
The point you bring up signals just that. Tesla will build about 25K cars in this quarter, but deliver around 28K. Do your math - this will be another profitable quarter for Tesla.
On a different matter here are some interesting points.
automotive revenue $2,148,727
automotive cost $1,517,061
gross margin $631,666 (29.39%)
number of cars delivered : 24,821
average car selling price : (2148727 / 24851) = $86,569
Average car cost: $61,120
The introduction of the 60kwh model lowered the average selling price ,
hence Elon is focusing on the 100 kWh version to increase the average revenue per car.
These higher kwh cars should substantially increase gross margins.
As expected, increased volume leads to higher gross margins, and that is
the whole point of economies of scale.
The automotive part of the business has never ever been better and still improving.
At the present run rate, 25000 deliveries per qtr., I see potentially $6 annually per share earnings.
Too bad Solarcity risk is overshadowing the above.
automotive revenue $2,148,727
automotive cost $1,517,061
gross margin $631,666 (29.39%)
number of cars delivered : 24,821
average car selling price : (2148727 / 24851) = $86,569
Average car cost: $61,120
The introduction of the 60kwh model lowered the average selling price ,
hence Elon is focusing on the 100 kWh version to increase the average revenue per car.
These higher kwh cars should substantially increase gross margins.
As expected, increased volume leads to higher gross margins, and that is
the whole point of economies of scale.
The automotive part of the business has never ever been better and still improving.
At the present run rate, 25000 deliveries per qtr., I see potentially $6 annually per share earnings.
Too bad Solarcity risk is overshadowing the above.
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Which shows they still don't get the mission of this company. It's sad to see this much manipulation over a company trying (and doing a ****ing awesome job at it) to change the world for the better.
Ulmo
Active Member
To buttress up that evidence, look at the asking prices for for-sale-by-owner cars of Tesla's. They are extremely inflated right now compared to August.
racer26
Active Member
I scraped together a bit more dry powder and fired it at a handful of SCTY@19 Calls for friday's expiry. I really can't see SCTY dropping any further after what Elon has to say this afternoon. Its currently trading at a value roughly equal to the TSLA@170 escape clause in the merger. I believe 18.70 should be a firm floor on where SCTY can go, this close to the merger.
If the merger succeeds, SCTY @ 18.70 is guaranteed to be the lowest value you will receive for it in terms of TSLA.
If the merger succeeds, SCTY @ 18.70 is guaranteed to be the lowest value you will receive for it in terms of TSLA.
The bears are firmly in control (of the stock and gaining control of this thread). I think if we don't hold the $188 area (low from back in June) it could get much uglier for the bulls before it gets better.
That is all.
That is all.
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