Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Alert sounds? Really, Congress?

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Transportation
Department on Monday finalized long-delayed rules that will
require "quiet cars" like electric vehicles and hybrids to emit
alert sounds at speeds of up to 18 miles per hour.
The rules, which were required by Congress, will require
automakers like Tesla Motors Inc <TSLA.O>, Nissan Motor Co
<7201.T> and Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> to add alert sounds to
all vehicles by September 2019. The Transportation Department
said it expects the rules will prevent 2,400 injuries a year in
2020 and will require the adding of alert sounds to about
530,000 vehicles.

 

[SteveG3]

It is very likely calling the merger off would be disasterous.

to Solar City

 

[Seesaw]

They could not have picked poorer timing for the merger vote than if they tried

 

[3Victoria]

I believe the merger is good for Tesla and the timing was good - before SC sank further and was attractive to others. As it is they het it for a good price with good prospects including the solar factory.

 

[ZsoZso]

Wow! Thanks to the shorts for these fire-sale prices!
Come on guys, lets buy while it lasts!

 

[Jayjs20]

And sub-180

 

[W84M3]

Real trouble now. Elon better starts defending the SP right now

 

[MrRandyB]

Alert sounds? Really, Congress?

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Transportation
Department on Monday finalized long-delayed rules that will
require "quiet cars" like electric vehicles and hybrids to emit
alert sounds at speeds of up to 18 miles per hour.
The rules, which were required by Congress, will require
automakers like Tesla Motors Inc <TSLA.O>, Nissan Motor Co
<7201.T> and Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> to add alert sounds to
all vehicles by September 2019. The Transportation Department
said it expects the rules will prevent 2,400 injuries a year in
2020 and will require the adding of alert sounds to about
530,000 vehicles.

Super dumb - I want to dislike, but not aimed at you

 

[Papafox]

The big dip we're seeing this morning is short-induced as a last-ditch effort to scuttle the merger. Chanos and other big shorts felt that Elon stole a great short opportunity at SCTY from them when he announced plans for a merger. So, what I think we're seeing is both an effort to rattle some of the larger institutional investors into changing their merger vote and a last-minute push to see if the longs can be rattled enough to go on a selling streak. To the latter question, I doubt we'll see longs doing panic selling because the weak longs have already departed the stock. With the cloud of the merger about to start breaking up after the merger is completed, I think some shorts are looking for an attractive exit point and they're trying to manufacture that exit point right now.

The question I have right now is whether the shorts will try another deep dip on the day after the merger vote is successful, to in effect suggest that investors are now worried about TSLA because the merger went through. I'm not sure they'll have the horsepower to do so, given the ferocity of their actions today. We'll see.

 

[Jayjs20]

TSLA was down about as much as the other tech stocks earlier this morning, but it's down noticeably lower now. Shows there's extra effort to push it down

 

[Turing]

Curt, I'm confused by your comment here. Reducing pollution controls typically increases vehicle mileage (fuel economy). So why would this make buyers be inclined to choose electric on that basis? It seems as if it would have the opposite effect.

The article was about CAFE standards - corporate average fuel economy standards. On the positive side if major autos sell more trucks and suvs due to a diminished CAFE they will need to buy more ZEV credits to offset.

 

[AlMc]

The market is also closing the arbitrage.

 

[Papafox]

Take a look at the volume spikes. At 12:38pm, over 77,000 shares were sold that minute. No long trying to lighten holdings would sell this many shares in a minute and then go many minutes before selling some more, because the exit could be made at higher prices if such a selling spike did not take place. These huge selling spikes are clearly the work of someone aiming to depress the SP.

Edit: It took the shorts over 80,000 shares to drop TSLA below 180 and we just popped back up again. I suspect there's as much frustration in shortsville as there is in longsville today.

 

[viKtor slamet]

I have mentioned many times in the past that $160-170 is a likely scenario, but of course everyone in this forum called me FUD. And guess what, we're at 170s. I never said to sell, just saying that buying opportunity at lower prices are very much possible

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

November 2019 options opened up today. For one example, you can get a bright and shiny Jan19 150 call for ~$50. That means you won't lose any money as long as TSLA is above $200 in 2019.

 

[Papafox]

I have mentioned many times in the past that $160-170 is a likely scenario, but of course everyone in this forum called me FUD. And guess what, we're at 170s. I never said to sell, just saying that buying opportunity at lower prices are very much possible

ViKtor, it's only FUD if you keep repeating it, keep repeating it, keep repeating it.

 

[Curt Renz]

View attachment 202298
Take a look at the volume spikes. At 12:38pm, over 77,000 shares were sold that minute. No long trying to lighten holdings would sell this many shares in a minute and then go many minutes before selling some more, because the exit could be made at higher prices if such a selling spike did not take place. These huge selling spikes are clearly the work of someone aiming to depress the SP.

That quick drop on huge volume was likely due to stop loss limits set at $180 by weak longs leading to a cascade similar to toppling dominoes. However, it is quite possible that a manipulator pushed over the first domino when the price was hovering near $180.

 

[Turing]

I have been scratching my head the past month to figure out this share price action. I was targeting TSLA to be $280 by end of year due to the fact that the company has proven it can execute, shorting would come down to normal levels, and valuation inputs would change for adjust the risk factor and pulling forward Model 3 production by a year or two. This unfortunately hasn't come to pass.

At the end of the day, the business case has been proven that electric cars can be profitable which was the biggest knock on Tesla. Time and time again the company has defied conventional "wisdom," but yet we are in a far lower place than last year when there was more uncertainty. As a refresher of the company's history and for those new to the forum:

Roadster days: it's impossible to build and nobody would want it, it's a rich man's toy

Early Model S days (shockingly even till now): there isn't enough demand, you can't build it

Model X : doors are weird, people won't want it. You can't build it. You can't build enough of them.

Where we are now: you can't build it quickly enough (even though Tesla made 400 cars a year to now 2000+ cars a week) or profitably enough (even though it's been proven twice that the company was operating profit + and the only thing keeping it from being + consistently is reinvestment for more growth). People saying that the SCTY merger makes no sense.

The business has evolved significantly from the original days and de-risked itself by creating what I call revenue hedges. It used to just be Powertrains and cars. Now it's:

- Cars
- Battery Packs
- Solar Roofs/Panels
- Powertrains (when and if somebody wants to make a deal)
- Robotics (super fresh)

I can also see Tesla (when it matures) providing consulting services for manufacturing and energy solutions at some point in the long distance future for extra revenue and to get other industries going to transition to sustainable energy faster.

Sorry for the long post, but I had to get it out there.

It is really kind of crazy. Tesla is in a massively better position today than 1-2 years ago. I pulled back my investments in tsla until it became clear model X had ramped and major issues had abated. I doubt a Trump administration really changes anything significant at this point, but it has created more uncertainty and ammo for short term FUD.

 

[Jayjs20]

Farewell sub-180, but I'm sure we'll meet again.

 

[Papafox]

That quick drop on huge volume was likely due to stop loss limits set at $180 by weak longs leading to a cascade similar to toppling dominoes. However, it is indeed likely that a manipulator pushed over the first domino.

Thanks, Curt, that explanation makes sense. Now that we're back above 180 again, those stop losses have already been triggered, so it'd be tougher to push below 180 a second time, I suspect.