Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Thanks! Do you have a view on whether there is any likelihood of that happening in this case, or would that mostly be due to something more concrete, e.g. discovering corruption/lies/bribery among senior executives?

My view (based on not much) is that there shouldn't be much/any vote flipping going on here unless Tesla has been conducting late shareholder outreach (never will be known to us) and the portfolio manager doesn't like what s/he is hearing. For most, I think they have had all the relevant info for quite a while - TSLA quarterly report, SCTY report, solar roof presentation and financial presentation. Sentiment has been horrible for solar for a while now, so I doubt one more log in the fire makes a difference at this point. Then again, I've seen vote flipping for no reason whatsoever so who knows?

 

[Rarity]

Regarding the risk that Musk would experience a margin call, we now know from an FCC filing yesterday that he owns 54% of SpaceX. With a June SpaceX valuation of $15 billion, his holding is worth $8 billion. That is about double what Bloomberg, for instance, calculated.

http://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=1158348

 

[3Victoria]

Chanos: Tesla-SolarCity Combination Is Absurd, Ridiculous

Almost everything he says is wrong! He thinks Tesla is a car company?! He thinks Tesla loses money?! He will be surprised in 2-3 years.

 

[anon]

My view (based on not much) is that there shouldn't be much/any vote flipping going on here unless Tesla has been conducting late shareholder outreach (never will be known to us) and the portfolio manager doesn't like what s/he is hearing. For most, I think they have had all the relevant info for quite a while - TSLA quarterly report, SCTY report, solar roof presentation and financial presentation. Sentiment has been horrible for solar for a while now, so I doubt one more log in the fire makes a difference at this point. Then again, I've seen vote flipping for no reason whatsoever so who knows?

Thanks again! That's helpful.

 

[dc_h]

I spoke to Robert Scoble at a VR/AR conference.
He seemed quite convinced that Tesla was producing their own set of AR glasses. I'm sceptic but he was basing it on the people they were hiring.

Not AR glasses, AR Glass! Heads up display.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding the risk that Musk would experience a margin call, we now know from an FCC filing yesterday that he owns 54% of SpaceX. With a June SpaceX valuation of $15 billion, his holding is worth $8 billion. That is about double what Bloomberg, for instance, calculated.

http://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=1158348

Elon owning $8 Billion worth of SpaceX is huge. Does it give you any ideas how he could raise $1 billion for Tesla if Tesla ever got in a crunch?

 

[RobStark]

Elon owning $8 Billion worth of SpaceX is huge. Does it give you any ideas how he could raise $1 billion for Tesla if Tesla ever got in a crunch?

Elon won't need the help of no stinking SV Billionaires!

He is a SV Billionaire!

 

[kenliles]

Not AR glasses, AR Glass! Heads up display.

Directly related to angle at which a piece of roof glass looks like a tile...
TSLA-SC synergies in both directions.
hmmmm...
Chanos - Obsurd ? Ridiculous ?
--- Short Bus

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

And it' looks like maybe I should have stated that this post above was intended to be sarcastic:[/QUOTE]

Scared me for a minute there Mitch

 

[Turing]

Regarding the risk that Musk would experience a margin call, we now know from an FCC filing yesterday that he owns 54% of SpaceX. With a June SpaceX valuation of $15 billion, his holding is worth $8 billion. That is about double what Bloomberg, for instance, calculated.

http://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=1158348

For reference, snapchat's IPO will make it close to twice as valuable as Spacex.

 

[larmor]

For reference, snapchat's IPO will make it close to twice as valuable as Spacex.

So advertising via data from snapchat is greater revenue stream than saving eight figures per spacex launch.

 

[Turing]

So advertising via data from snapchat is greater revenue stream than saving eight figures per spacex launch.

I like Spacex's moat and potential market dominating position more than snapchats. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[CaliBear1]

Just passing the Tesla Fremont factory. The lots are absolutely jammed with the cars of employees. Hey Chanos, quite the parlor trick Elon Musk is pulling off there.

I would ask Chanos the Charlatan one question: Have you even been to the factory? If not, thanks for coming and STFU!

 

[MitchJi]

I'm so sure that it's know what's going to happen that I bought a small number of Dec-6 $230 and an equal number of Dec 26 $130 puts, all for about 25 cents each.

It just occurred to me that the vote is happening at a shareholders meeting, so there will probably be a presentation of some sort, hopefully with some great news.

After a little more thinking about this (speculation, be very careful trading on this!)..
They are having a shareholders meeting for the vote. I didn't think that they will just take the vote without some kind of presentation. I think that they will announce anything related that they can. Some possibilities are:
Off the hook inquiries for Solar tiles, or orders for Powerwalls.

Utility scale Powerpacks orders.

Gigafactory cell production.

I'm not recommending this but I'm feeling confident enough that I might buy another 10-30 call lottery tickets.

I'm not very enthusiastic about the theory of shorts driving down the SP, but I think tomorrow might be a good time to expect that. I'm probably going to place a limit offer on my put lottery tickets at about 100 percent profit,before the market opens.

I'm not sure that's actually the case.

In a previous statement Musk said something about increasing the efficiency of the factory and specifically when speaking about improving volumetric efficiency he mentioned that the model example were chips.

I think Keller et all are there to build the "architecture" of the new better factory versions. The techppniques of computer architecture with regards to packing things in well and concepts like pipelining in this case would be the goal for the new factory.

I don't think so. I believe Elon was using chip/computer architecture as a metaphor. Assembling a team of chip design experts for factory design based on a metaphor he used to explain the concept doesn't make sense to me.

I think I need to clarify what I intended to convey. When I said that Tesla might make their own chips I should have said design their own chips. It never occurred to me that anyone would think I meant fabricate their own chips. I'm pretty sure that even Nvidia doesn't fabricate their own chips.

 

[ggr]

I doubt there will be any significant presentation. There are only two items on the agenda, and the information for one of them has already been available for months. The other is possible postponement if not enough votes came in. These meetings are usually quick and boring. They should be able to announce the outcome almost immediately... that might be the most interesting thing in the meeting(s).

 

[MitchJi]

1. I doubt there will be any significant presentation. There are only two items on the agenda, and the information for one of them has already been available for months. The other is possible postponement if not enough votes came in. These meetings are usually quick and boring. They should be able to announce the outcome almost immediately... that might be the most interesting thing in the meeting(s).

   Thanks! I don't know anything about how this might work.
   
   If anyone else that has any knowledge or experience I would appreciate hearing their opinion!

 

[tander]

I doubt there will be any significant presentation. There are only two items on the agenda, and the information for one of them has already been available for months. The other is possible postponement if not enough votes came in. These meetings are usually quick and boring. They should be able to announce the outcome almost immediately... that might be the most interesting thing in the meeting(s).

@MitchJi
That sounds more likely for the meeting, although Musk could always get on twitter or blog to announce some things. I'm not an expert but I have been following this very closely and boning up on my M&A, and I'm reluctant to say this at risk sounding like somebody that was just sure Clinton would win last week, but there is a very very small chance the merger won't pass. I say this having calculated (shares issued-shares recused/2+1=simple majority, then add up how many institutions are needed for majority) that regardless of how us retail shareholders vote, SCTY only needs the top five institutions to vote yes, and TSLA only needs the top five or ten, and I would guess Musk&Co have personally visited all of the important ones. So they shouldn't need to do any kind of presentation to secure the vote or anything. That said, it wouldn't be surprising if they let some good news out to negate the effect of Tesla buying such a "loser" or trying to amp up possible momentum coming out of the merger. The biggest question in my mind is how long before SCTY is delisted after the vote, because the odds are very high that SCTY will rise a little after TSLA votes yes, and maybe quite a bit if it stays on the exchange.

I haven't been putting enough time in to really be solid with the super short term stuff (as evidenced by previous predictions and losing head shaving bets), but I'm assuming if SCTY is not immediately delisted, SCTY will rise, and TSLA I'm not really sure about. On the one hand it should go down, but on the other so much doubt has been cast on Musk's leadership etc. that securing a yes vote might actually drive TSLA up. And like someone else previously suggested, if they start announced all these big PPA agreements and stuff that could really turn the tide of consensus, I'm really wondering when analysts will get off the fence and make a call one way or another. Moreover in the chance that SCTY rises a lot (about 20%) and starts to get up to the merger parity price which is 24.5ish?, TSLA might respond in kind and start rising too. I'm holding shorter term SCTY calls, and my hedge is SCTY LEAPS which are still crazy cheap IMO.

 

[dennis]

I doubt there will be any significant presentation. There are only two items on the agenda, and the information for one of them has already been available for months. The other is possible postponement if not enough votes came in. These meetings are usually quick and boring. They should be able to announce the outcome almost immediately... that might be the most interesting thing in the meeting(s).

It is interesting that they are webcasting the meeting. No reason to do that if it is just a perfunctory announcement of the voting results.

 

[tander]

It is interesting that they are webcasting the meeting. No reason to do that if it is just a perfunctory announcement of the voting results.

That's a good point, maybe they will do some sort of presentation, maybe a big Indian wedding ceremony?

 

[ajax]

@MitchJi
That sounds more likely for the meeting, although Musk could always get on twitter or blog to announce some things. I'm not an expert but I have been following this very closely and boning up on my M&A, and I'm reluctant to say this at risk sounding like somebody that was just sure Clinton would win last week, but there is a very very small chance the merger won't pass. I say this having calculated (shares issued-shares recused/2+1=simple majority, then add up how many institutions are needed for majority) that regardless of how us retail shareholders vote, SCTY only needs the top five institutions to vote yes, and TSLA only needs the top five or ten, and I would guess Musk&Co have personally visited all of the important ones. So they shouldn't need to do any kind of presentation to secure the vote or anything. That said, it wouldn't be surprising if they let some good news out to negate the effect of Tesla buying such a "loser" or trying to amp up possible momentum coming out of the merger. The biggest question in my mind is how long before SCTY is delisted after the vote, because the odds are very high that SCTY will rise a little after TSLA votes yes, and maybe quite a bit if it stays on the exchange.

I haven't been putting enough time in to really be solid with the super short term stuff (as evidenced by previous predictions and losing head shaving bets), but I'm assuming if SCTY is not immediately delisted, SCTY will rise, and TSLA I'm not really sure about. On the one hand it should go down, but on the other so much doubt has been cast on Musk's leadership etc. that securing a yes vote might actually drive TSLA up. And like someone else previously suggested, if they start announced all these big PPA agreements and stuff that could really turn the tide of consensus, I'm really wondering when analysts will get off the fence and make a call one way or another. Moreover in the chance that SCTY rises a lot (about 20%) and starts to get up to the merger parity price which is 24.5ish?, TSLA might respond in kind and start rising too. I'm holding shorter term SCTY calls, and my hedge is SCTY LEAPS which are still crazy cheap IMO.

Just a heads up, the current parity price for SCTY is 183.93 * 0.11 = 20.23 not 24.5ish. I wish it wasn't so, but it is