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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Personally I get the feeling when china started allowing small companies to mess with Apple domestically Elon did a lot of pulling back on China. There was take of a Shanghai factory up until that week, afterwards a statement saying it was not in the works and not a peep about china since.

Well you are probably correct:
Elon Musk's SpaceX Refuses To File Patents For Fear Of Chinese Copycats .

Still I am hoping for at lease limited assembly done in China, as quite a number of subassemblies/tires will be made in China, Korea etc and it makes no sense for those to be shipped to CA and then back to Asia.

Wish Tesla's next product is solar battery powered container ship, then shipping of finished cars to China will be free.
 
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Yes the stock price has been a function of trust of management for a while. Elon has mostly guided correctly but with a slight delay but there are three major things that taint his track record:

1. Model X launch. The car was never ready but it was launched anyway, but even at the launch date it was delayed a lot compared to the original date.

Done and over with. Long since resolved. Get over it analysts and analyze what's in front of you. Oh, you've analyzed what's in front of you now and come up with $0 for Solar City, 1 year delay for Model 3 blah, blah, blah... Time to quit your day job.

2. Powerwall of the hook demand comment and then cancel the product. I don't know why this happened. It is a bit of a mystery. They most likely realized it was better to wait on GF but why even launch it at the beginning and say the demand was off the hook and then never produce it. This is probably partly why no one seems to set much value on TE.

Tesla realized the product wasn't good enough. Just that simple. Wasn't compelling enough for the people inquiring about it, therefore took the time to make it better. While Powerwall 1 worked for certain limited markets, the consumer demand for such a product was far wider and reaching. You can think of it in terms of cup holders, creep, folding seats and the like. The people said we need Powerwall to be better and so it is better.

3. SolarCity. SolarCitys business model seemed to be the wrong way to go starting last year and that of course is a negative for Elon's trustworthiness. Some say the business is more healthy but the whole concept seems to be questionable and rely on net metering and the tax credits to work and the utilities are right about net metering being unfair to other consumers.

Emphasis on 'seemed/seems'. I contend anyone who 'seems' the decision to have been wrong, mistimed etc... just hasn't been paying close enough attention. I contend that anyone that hasn't let the 'seems' go is in the same boat with the analysts focused on the wrong time period and the wrong aspect. But like I always say, not everyone is suppose to get it.

I am very surprised it did not even go up after last quarter so obviously more things are needed.

It's not surprising to me. People hold grudges, especially if you embarrass them publically and they think super highly of themselves/take themselves too seriously/can't admit they made a mistake etc.... I'd feel bad for them, except they got what they deserved. Some will say Elon's SP is now getting what it deserves. Well, he too has to live with his actions. The difference is that his intent, to the core of his being, is good. The other's, not so much.

I think the next push up would be better visibility of SolarCity finances and business model and also when we get even closer to Model 3 launch.

Solar City no longer exists. Visibility of that sector of Tesla will be the same as it is of the car segment.
 
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Tesla realized [Powerwall 1] wasn't good enough. Just that simple. Wasn't compelling enough for the people inquiring about it, therefore took the time to make it better. While Powerwall 1 worked for certain limited markets, the consumer demand for such a product was far wider and reaching. You can think of it in terms of cup holders, creep, folding seats and the like. The people said we need Powerwall to be better and so it is better.
I have the same questions as @lango on this.

How could Powerwall 1 demand be "off-the-hook" and then Tesla subsequently realize that the product wasn't compelling enough?

Does that imply that nearly all reservations were cancelled?

And, I'm wondering why analysts didn't ask these questions.
 
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Tesla hires HoloLens designer, second Microsoft employee from the augmented reality program

Tesla hired another AR designer. As electrek mentioned, he will probably work on the Model 3 HUD but besides that I think there is a real opportunity for Tesla to change the retail store experience using Augmented Reality and also for much better entertainment for the passengers. Right now the kids in the rear seats or an executive getting chauffeured might really like something like the HoloLens. Also once cars are fully autonomous even the driver will want some form of entertainment.
 
How could Powerwall 1 demand be "off-the-hook" and then Tesla subsequently realize that the product wasn't compelling enough?
I do not understand fully either. However, it would appear that demand for a battery storage product is high. It seems pretty likely that the improvements from the new 2170 cells and also battery pack configuration allowed a much more compelling product ... twice capacity with included inverter for about the same price.
 
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I do not understand fully either. However, it would appear that demand for a battery storage product is high. It seems pretty likely that the improvements from the new 2170 cells and also battery pack configuration allowed a much more compelling product ... twice capacity with included inverter for about the same price.

Speculative, but my assumption is that given the compelling specs and price point for PW2, Tesla pretty quickly realized that PW1 would be a very short-lived product. Since Jason's arrival, Tesla has been keeping a close eye on use of R&D resources, so it would make sense that Tesla would choose to invest its limited resources into PW2 development and production ramp rather than R&D (and likely some capital) expenditures required to ramp production of PW1 -- a product that was destined to be shelved not long after it hit the market.

The result: more efficient use of R&D resources, possibly reduced capital expenditures and (hopefully) happier customers -- those of us who reserved a PW1 and ended up having to wait a bit for PW2 are getting a much better value than we originally signed up for.
 
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Well you are probably correct:
Elon Musk's SpaceX Refuses To File Patents For Fear Of Chinese Copycats .

Still I am hoping for at lease limited assembly done in China, as quite a number of subassemblies/tires will be made in China, Korea etc and it makes no sense for those to be shipped to CA and then back to Asia.

Blankenship made several trips to China in late 2011/ early 2012, with no resulting co-operative agreement with an influential entity in that key market. When the case studies about Tesla's history are written for B school students to study, I submit one of the early mis-steps will be the failure to align with a "connected" agent/JV partner. When in Rome....
 
Well you are probably correct:
Elon Musk's SpaceX Refuses To File Patents For Fear Of Chinese Copycats .

Still I am hoping for at lease limited assembly done in China, as quite a number of subassemblies/tires will be made in China, Korea etc and it makes no sense for those to be shipped to CA and then back to Asia.

Wish Tesla's next product is solar battery powered container ship, then shipping of finished cars to China will be free.

Taiwan, Korea, India, Japan, Vietnam. Any of those countries would be fine. Tesla factories are automated so you could make a factory in London and hire bankers out from the city when they lose their jobs from brexit and probably still make good margin. Although whether they do the job well is another issue
 
I do not understand fully either. However, it would appear that demand for a battery storage product is high. It seems pretty likely that the improvements from the new 2170 cells and also battery pack configuration allowed a much more compelling product ... twice capacity with included inverter for about the same price.
I think customers were interested in a cheap battery backup/storage system, but not an expensive installation and inverter. PW2 solves that and now the product meets the original market.
 
I think customers were interested in a cheap battery backup/storage system, but not an expensive installation and inverter. PW2 solves that and now the product meets the original market.

I don't see any convincing evidence that there was lack of demand for PW1 -- in fact, there were lots of people waiting in line to get one.

As noted above, I think the lack of PW1 deliveries is more likely a decision by Tesla not to waste $ on a production ramp for a product that was going to be quickly replaced by a far better one. Admittedly speculative, but IMO seems to fit all the evidence better than a demand issue.
 
I do not understand fully either. However, it would appear that demand for a battery storage product is high. It seems pretty likely that the improvements from the new 2170 cells and also battery pack configuration allowed a much more compelling product ... twice capacity with included inverter for about the same price.

GreentechMedia speculates that the PW1 was never intended for the mass market
Here’s Everything New About Tesla’s Updated Powerwall 2.0

It makes sense to launch a product most people have never heard of with a sexy, futuristic design. The second iteration of the Powerwall demonstrates a maturation on Tesla's part, putting ease of use ahead of aesthetics.
 
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I have the same questions as @lango on this.
How could Powerwall 1 demand be "off-the-hook" and then Tesla subsequently realize that the product wasn't compelling enough?
Does that imply that nearly all reservations were cancelled?
And, I'm wondering why analysts didn't ask these questions.

They could have sold quite a lot of PW1 in certain markets. But they probably quickly realized it was better to ramp it in GF and that was not ready and they also saw improvements so they postpone it all. It was the right decision but has hurt credibility for future predictions.
 
Emphasis on 'seemed/seems'. I contend anyone who 'seems' the decision to have been wrong, mistimed etc... just hasn't been paying close enough attention. I contend that anyone that hasn't let the 'seems' go is in the same boat with the analysts focused on the wrong time period and the wrong aspect. But like I always say, not everyone is suppose to get it.

Solar City no longer exists. Visibility of that sector of Tesla will be the same as it is of the car segment.

SolarCity's business model was the right for it's time but I think it will be changed and this is also something the market thinks too. It will be mostly customer ownership of the panels through loans or similar. And selling batteries and the solar roof. The changes SolarCity will go through has hurt Elon's credibility slightly as he was behind it. Of course this is totally unfair since SolarCity is a great company that just had to evolve it's business model but so far most decisions seems to be right.

Not sure what you mean that it does not exists. It is a division under Tesla if not a subsidiary so there is nothing wrong with referring to it with the old name.
 
Space-x is trying to get a bunch of satellites in orbit. Think about "jobs to be done".

Imagine a world where you pay Elon one payment and you get:
- a sexy car that take you around and helps you earn money
- energy for your car and house and stuff inside it
-24/7 super fast internet connectivity - no need to pay for cellular service
- insurance, financing and maintenance for all of the above

SpaceX plans worldwide satellite Internet with low latency, gigabit speed










SpaceX plans worldwide satellite Internet with low latency, gigabit speed
 
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