Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[StapleGun]

How many vehicles does each Tesla store have to move per day on average to make a 25k quarter?

Hint: Its not a very big number.

Just because i was curious... in the Q3 letter they stated 250 stores/service centers. So that's and average of 100 deliveries per location over roughly 90 working days. Of course since Tesla bunches deliveries and some locations will be busier than others there are probably locations/times when 10/day+ is normal for a few weeks.

 

[geneclean55]

InsideEV thinks that Tesla has sold more than 7000 MS worldwide in an 'epic' December

World EV Sales Up 39% In November, Tesla Model S And Nissan LEAF Battle For 2016 Title In December

 

[Turing]

InsideEVs thinks Tesla december deliveries will be 'epic'.
Tesla remains in second before its usual December surge (which is shaping up to be ‘epic’ this month), while a broad plug-in hybrid portfolio gives BMW third position, ahead of Nissan.
World EV Sales Up 39% In November, Tesla Model S And Nissan LEAF Battle For 2016 Title In December

 

[3Victoria]

Final update on this: Norway ended december with 688 cars delivered, which brings Q4 to 981.

Ps: For comparison, Q1-Q3 were 705, 543 and 1252. Note, Q3 saw the first volume deliveries of Model X, so that's above average.

That's 2500 q1-3. If some of the 'q2' cars delivered in q3, then maybe the distribution is 700, 850, 950, 981.

 

[geneclean55]

This press release? I'm aware of the production push in last 4 weeks in June and lots of cars on trucks, but was there a delivery push such as incentives for people to take delivery in June instead of July? Or was the June production boom too late for delivery so Tesla didn't try to push delivery? Or maybe Tesla didn't push delivery because it's all in FY2016, and difference from Q2 to Q3 didn't concern them that much?

By all accounts Tesla always has a mad deliveries rush during the last month, be it Q2 or Q4. The InsideEVs monthly scorecard gives one indication of this.
I am not aware of excessive incentives for customers during end of Q2 or Q4 compared to Q3 which was apparently unique and might not be repeated.

 

[Waiting4M3]

By all accounts Tesla always has a mad deliveries rush during the last month, be it Q2 or Q4. The InsideEVs monthly scorecard gives one indication of this.

Just saw the InsideEV article, I hope they're right about the epicness of Q4 delivery. If that's true maybe the 15% run up in PPS in Dec will be just a prelude to what's to come in 2017

 

[AlMc]

InsideEV thinks that Tesla has sold more than 7000 MS worldwide in an 'epic' December

World EV Sales Up 39% In November, Tesla Model S And Nissan LEAF Battle For 2016 Title In December

So,if my math is correct and the EV Sales numbers are correct, then TM needs to deliver 18k vehicles worldwide to make the 80k figure. Correct?
If, as other posters have asserted: 250 SCs and 30 delivery days, then about 2.5 deliveries per day per SC.

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla will have sold over 50k MS during 2016, according to that article. Can Tesla also bag 30K MX sales

 

[woof]

I feel as though I should be offended by that comment.

I am definitely offended by that comment! (For those of you not familiar with my avatar breed, it's a Border Collie, a breed specifically bred for herding ability, not looks).

 

[mmd]

So,if my math is correct and the EV Sales numbers are correct, then TM needs to deliver 18k vehicles worldwide to make the 80k figure. Correct?
If, as other posters have asserted: 250 SCs and 30 delivery days, then about 2.5 deliveries per day per SC.

That's right. 7000 worldwide MS in Dec is good, but not epic since Oct&Nov were much weaker than Q3 , going by InsideEV estimates. MX was 63% of MS last quarter in NA. With that ratio, total would be around 11410 worldwide Dec deliveries. (Now, there is still a day left, so ..) I am a bit surprised, IEV decided to put this out so early this time.

Why not Pacific Time?

Simple, no ball drop on this 'boring' coast of the country Just a re-broadcast of recorded NYC event when it is 12 a.m. PST.

 

[AlMc]

I am definitely offended by that comment! (For those of you not familiar with my avatar breed, it's a Border Collie, a breed specifically bred for herding ability, not looks).

Then I support you as a candidate for second moderator!
Good luck herding me and @Kruggerand

 

[geneclean55]

That's right. 7000 worldwide MS in Dec is good, but not epic since Oct&Nov were much weaker than Q3 , going by InsideEV estimates. MX was 63% of MS last quarter in NA. With that ratio, total would be around 11410 worldwide Dec deliveries. (Now, there is still a day left, so ..) I am a bit surprised, IEV decided to put this out so early this time.


Simple, no ball drop on this 'boring' coast of the country Just a re-broadcast of recorded NYC event when it is 12 a.m. PST.

Almost guaranteed MX percentage will be higher than 63% of MS sales worldwide. Its currently around that level in Europe for November, but the largest MS market in Europe, the UK, only started receiving MX deliveries December 23rd. Also, almost tempted to move towards hat-eating territory if China doesn't have a higher MX percentage than 63% of MS sales during December.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

When do deliveries get announced? Before the bell on Monday?

 

[AlMc]

When do deliveries get announced? Before the bell on Monday?

IIRC: US markets are closed Monday. Expect it Tuesday AM

 

[erthquake]

When do deliveries get announced? Before the bell on Monday?

No bell on Monday, market is closed for the holiday.

 

[Off Shore]

When do deliveries get announced? Before the bell on Monday?

No bell on Monday (holiday).

 

[Intl Professor]

someone is buying and driving them.......

Except for this Thanksgiving and all New Yearses, we spend the two major holidays in Santa Rosa celebrating with family resident on West Coast. Rarely do we see a Tesla, which my wife is now trained to detect with her radar. Driving home to Sacramento this Christmas we saw at least ten.

 

[Intl Professor]

I am definitely offended by that comment! (For those of you not familiar with my avatar breed, it's a Border Collie, a breed specifically bred for herding ability, not looks).

Since it's the end of the year, I'll venture an opinion off topic (so unusual for me). One of the old geezers (not quite so senior as I) used to play frisbie with his Border Collie in our neighborhood. Watching the two, a distinguished oldster throwing the disk at a different point some 100 or so feet ahead and then the dog taking a quick look before turning to run madly to where it would land and to jump, if necessary, to catch it and then retrieve for another throw in another direction was the most beautiful sight of man animal relationship one could ever see. The dog is old too and so hurt her foot when she stepped into a defective sprinkler under repair so that exercise is now outdated. Talk to him occasionally. Most recently the dog looks better though she only walks sedately. When I asked about her health: "she's taking chondroitin, works better for her than me."

Incidentally for you history buffs, we used to throw the tops of Frisbie potato chip tins (about 1-2ft. diameter) in the mid-fifties on vacation at Cape Cod. (Calendar years, not middle aged chips.)

 

[AudubonB]

(...not middle aged chips.)

Still doesn't answer why Frisbee tin tops vacationed on Cape Cod.

 

[AudubonB]

Outside Wickenburg is a picturesque and historic site* called "The Potato Patch". I'd think they'd have done far better spending their holidays there.

*Jen's dad's memorial plaque is there.

True story: the Potato Patch hosted one of the most legendarily rich gold discovery sites in recent centuries. Guess how it got its name.