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Here is reason why it's a bad idea to hang your hat on India driving oil demand growth.
India is about to embark on the most ambitious electric-car transformation in the world
Obviously, the numbers on the ground are not there now in terms of EVs, but the will is there along with an economic incentive to be energy independent.
India is about to embark on the most ambitious electric-car transformation in the world
Obviously, the numbers on the ground are not there now in terms of EVs, but the will is there along with an economic incentive to be energy independent.
Right, diesel consumption is up in the US. However, it was down globally in 2016 over prior year, and this decline was lead by China. About a third of the decline in China is attributable to electric buses, about 70 kb/d displacement. From 2014 to 2016 electric buses grew 10X. From this modest base of 116k electric buses in China alone, if heavy EV double just once every 24 months, then demand peaks about 2020. Obviously, there is already much more out there and a strong potential to double much faster than once per 24 months. It also overlooks growing impacts from solar and natural gas. So their is a lot of vulnerability in diesel demand.
All-electric bus travels record 1,100 miles on a single charge
Proterra is setting new distance records. 600Wh/mile on a 660 kWh pack is quite impressive.
Proterra is setting new distance records. 600Wh/mile on a 660 kWh pack is quite impressive.
PROTERRA AND LG CHEM ANNOUNCE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF NEW BATTERY CELL – Proterra
PROTERRA CATALYST® E2 MAX SETS WORLD RECORD AND DRIVES 1,101.2 MILES ON A SINGLE CHARGE – Proterra
More info from Proterra. Also saw that the distance tests are at 15 mph.
PROTERRA CATALYST® E2 MAX SETS WORLD RECORD AND DRIVES 1,101.2 MILES ON A SINGLE CHARGE – Proterra
More info from Proterra. Also saw that the distance tests are at 15 mph.
dc_h
Active Member
I think it's parsing. They can't very well admit they aren't investing in EV tech, but they also can't admit their ICE platforms have a time value problem and they don't know exactly when the slope accelerates. Once the slope starts accelerating to zero, the value of ICE platforms will quickly lose all residual value. Admitting that fact will not slow the process down.
Yeah, I'm mostly engaged in making fun of VW here, and at a minimum they've got a huge Osborne risk here.
But maybe I missed something more basic. A 10M unit company is targeting 1M EV units by 2025, just a 10% share if zero growth. If they had a shorter pathway to a $100/kWh pack, then they would be aimimg to gain market share through lower cost structure EVs. So the fact that they are only targeting 10% EVs suggests to me that they do not see such a pathway.
So that's the test. If an OEM is rushing to gain market share through EVs, then they have low pack costs clearly in sight.
VW does not see a path to cheap packs.
This is what it would look like for VW to reach 1M long range EVs by 2025. Starting at 7500 next year with the Q6 eTron and doubling every year after that. To reach 30% of their sales as long range EVs by 2030, the growth need only be linear after 2025.
I see the chances of this happening close to zero unless we count commuter EVs. I still need to model that but I see low likelyhood of that happening too.
why close to zero? when you phrase it like "starting at 7500 next year and doubling each successive year" that doesn't actually sound too hard for a company like vw.
No company has done that before for any alt fuel vehicle, not VW, not Toyota, nobody. Nobody has even managed that with hybrids. So we can forget about full EVs. Even if they managed to make those vehicles, they also need to convince people to buy them. How will they do that? Price the EV same as the gas car? They need to commit to selling the equivalent EV and gas car at the same price.
And while it seems easy for VW, lets see them actually launch something first before we talk about scale. It is not engineering that is the problem, culture and commitment is. They cannot say they are gung ho ev while at the same time commit to diesels.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thank you for the explanation.
Also - note that diesel inventories, viewed in the context of daily demand, is now at extremely low levels in the US. This likely will translate to higher prices, which means even higher demand for Tesla Semi.
I don't think Tesla quite yet understands the severity of the demand for its products. I really hope that Tesla proves me conservative with my $300k Tesla Semi ASP plus 10 cents/kWh electricity pricing assumptions.
They just won't be able to meet demand for many years, and it's better to serve the customers that need it the most (i.e. willing to pay most) first and invest that excess profit into building additional production capacity as quickly as possible.
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larmor
Active Member
The semi business could be huge and fast scaling for Tesla. I'd like to Tesla aim for 400k semis per year. They should own this since the biggest challenge is just building enough batteries.
The diesel inventory levels in the US are curious. I wonder how much of this is strong export demand. The NY Harbor price for heating oil is quite spectacular at $1.80/gal while gasoline is at $1.65/gal. US consumption of diesel has grown substantially while gasoline sales are flat. If this sort of trend continues a few more years, we could have a substantial need for heavy EVs relative to light EV. So, yeah, that's all good for Tesla Semi.
I see. To me what is different from the past is that I feel like Tesla is actually going to make it easier for VW to pull this off because the Model 3 will make EVs normal. EVs have been either for rich people, environmentalists or short-distance urban drivers in the past and now they'll just be cars.
Once people have an understanding that EVs can just be normal cars (but with tons of benefits) I think it will be hard for any company offering a half-decent EV not to sell a few thousand.
This is really good slide deck by Michael Liebreich, founder of BNEF. I think this is less BNEF and more Michael, which is good. The video should be better when released.
Michael Liebreich State of the Industry Keynote at BNEF EMEA Summit 2017 | Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich State of the Industry Keynote at BNEF EMEA Summit 2017 | Bloomberg New Energy Finance
FWIW
Renault Nissan is allegedly expecting 30% of their sales to be electric in 2022.
(which is also in the context of global sales for 14 million for Renault Nissan alliance for 2022.)
so that's 4.2 million EVs per year from that the world's transient current No1 automaker (half year 2017).
(interesting 3/4 of that autogroup don't present their electric vehicles in USA)
(Renault ZEs, Dongfeng EVs, Mitsubishi PHEVs, only some Nissan)
Iceland is curious, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was 82% of that brands sales, but still small at 152 units," in August, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was the Best Selling Model in Iceland, being possibly the first time a plug-in reached the highest place in the general ranking." EV Sales: Iceland August 2017
(ps I suspect HK may challenge that title)
By "electric", I assume it means BEV + PHEV + Hybrid?? Otherwise that is just PR fluff like these things:
Q&A: Renault-Nissan CEO Pledges $5.6 Billion for EVs (500k leafs/year by 2013)
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn Promises 1.5 Million EVs By 2020 (1.5 million EVs by 2020)
Nissan/Renault won’t make electric vehicle goals: CEO - NBC News (original goal was 1.5 million by 2016 which got postponed to 2020)
I assume it means BEV and PHEV, and possibly full serial Hybrid. Renault/Nissan speak excludes conventional Hybrid unlike its peers.
Ghosn missed his early early volumes targets but he did build the factories for his 500k unit per year targets. But his battery factories were not competitive to his procurement departments deals with LG. It was a 4billion Euro program ($5billion USD)
Renault/Nissan operates differently to most automakers, they make profit selling cheap, they make a loss selling expensive (polar opposite to Daimler)
but for humor then, I was interested if you could make a graph for that automaker to get to 4.2million PHEVs/EVs by 2022. Its the baseline scenario that Renault Nissan is presenting to their stakeholders.
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