Refinery stuff, maybe? I wouldn't expect this inconsistency to last too long....
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
dc_h
Active Member
I think policy is good, but sometimes a mellow push us better than an emergency alarm. The Bush era all energy buffet policy was not great, but as a natl security program, rather than purely an energy program it was successful. I think putting a new 10 year timeline on solar and wind subsides declining in equal 10% increments every year would encourage adoption. A cash for clunkers, but done cheap. Offer 2k for any car under 20mpg not meeting clean air requirements. For a couple billion you encourage newer cleaner car sales and make the roads cleaner and safer.
I would like a modest carbon tax, but don’t think big incentives work, or often have unintended consequences. Anything high would be too divisive to pass anyhow.
The Oil Industry Needs Large New Discoveries, Very Soon | OilPrice.com
Ha, WoodMac is ignoring the recent, huge 25B boe find in Sparks, NV.
Ha, WoodMac is ignoring the recent, huge 25B boe find in Sparks, NV.
Fuel Oil Isn’t Going Anywhere | OilPrice.com
Interesting update on how refiners are preparing for ISO2020. If residual oil goes cheap enough, it may be used for power generation in place of coal. I suspect the at the price needs to come down to about $20/b to compete with coal/gas at $3/mmbtu, while currently it fuel oil is about $66/b. Notice that fuel oil is already cheaper than crude, but it need to come down about 70% to compete with coal. If electrification of HD vehicles were already in earnest, perhaps refiners would question the financial prospects for investing in new equipment to crack fuel oil into lighter distillates. These upgrades might not return a long-term ROI. The risk goes up the more aggregate capacity is added across the industry.
Interesting update on how refiners are preparing for ISO2020. If residual oil goes cheap enough, it may be used for power generation in place of coal. I suspect the at the price needs to come down to about $20/b to compete with coal/gas at $3/mmbtu, while currently it fuel oil is about $66/b. Notice that fuel oil is already cheaper than crude, but it need to come down about 70% to compete with coal. If electrification of HD vehicles were already in earnest, perhaps refiners would question the financial prospects for investing in new equipment to crack fuel oil into lighter distillates. These upgrades might not return a long-term ROI. The risk goes up the more aggregate capacity is added across the industry.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
https://jalopnik.com/this-new-emissions-test-has-completely-blown-apart-the-1829460988
Germany is having a hard time adjusting to new WLTP pollution regulations. Looks like they are going to have to replace all of the old polluting diesels.
"Things are not looking good for the supposedly most advanced and technically able auto industry in the world. The day of regulatory reckoning is here, in The Morning Shift for Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2018."
(Hard to call an industry which doesn't/can't make EVs "the most advanced and technically able")
Germany is having a hard time adjusting to new WLTP pollution regulations. Looks like they are going to have to replace all of the old polluting diesels.
"Things are not looking good for the supposedly most advanced and technically able auto industry in the world. The day of regulatory reckoning is here, in The Morning Shift for Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2018."
(Hard to call an industry which doesn't/can't make EVs "the most advanced and technically able")
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The fracked wells are running out superfast in North Dakota and Texas, but that's the only fundamental physical sign of a supply shortage.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Marathon just announced their bailing on certain offshore projects and moving into Permian. I think frackers can pump at this rate or more for 3-5 years with ease. How then do we ever have a global supply issue? This is all just spin.
I disagree. Apparently, after the big oil companies got wise to the fact that fracked wells ran out much faster than normal wells, the frackers started using even more tricks to front-load the oil production. Where half the lifetime production would have been produced in 3 years in a early fracked well, in today's fracked well, half the lifetime production is produced in the first year. The production rate dropoffs are cliff-like. They've already given up on all formations other than the Bakken and the Permian, and the Bakken has already peaked. With everybody and his brother rushing into the Permian, they have maybe 1 or 2 years before the supply crashes.
Demand may crash before that, or OPEC may "open the spigots". But anyway, the inevitable very-near-term end of the US fracking business is the only possible supply shock I see on the horizon. I don't see any others.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm in the neighborhood of that logic, just seems to be way too many big boys flooding into the Permian for just a couple year's profit.
Even if it's just 1 or 2 years, how in the world does that equate to a "looming supply crunch"? Our net demand should be plummeting. China is flat. OPEC is closer to minimum production than max.
I guess we could logically say that avg global production costs are up 3x in the last 15 years, but that doesn't get me to $85 under any rational market pricing.
Even if it's just 1 or 2 years, how in the world does that equate to a "looming supply crunch"? Our net demand should be plummeting. China is flat. OPEC is closer to minimum production than max.
I guess we could logically say that avg global production costs are up 3x in the last 15 years, but that doesn't get me to $85 under any rational market pricing.
Oil Slumps On Major Inventory Build | OilPrice.com
I still fantasize about demand failing to grow longer-term with Brent above $80. Of course, you can see some short-term demand growth because most demand is locked into durable assets like an auto or truck. Pricey oil puts a drag on global GDP growth.
I still fantasize about demand failing to grow longer-term with Brent above $80. Of course, you can see some short-term demand growth because most demand is locked into durable assets like an auto or truck. Pricey oil puts a drag on global GDP growth.
Mexico Could Cut Electricity Prices By 40% With Renewables | OilPrice.com
Wow, if Mexico really can cut the cost of electricity by 40% using renewables, I don't see why they would move on this more quickly. And of course an abundance of cheap renewable energy makes electrification of transport even more attractive. Do it, Mexico.
Wow, if Mexico really can cut the cost of electricity by 40% using renewables, I don't see why they would move on this more quickly. And of course an abundance of cheap renewable energy makes electrification of transport even more attractive. Do it, Mexico.
Egypt Feels The Squeeze Of Higher Oil Prices | OilPrice.com
Here is an interesting case in subsiding gasoline and diesel, even as natural gas resources will become a net export.
Egypt consumes about 200M barrels of motor fuel per year. With oil at $67/b, this is subsidized to the tune of $5B or 60c/gal. If oil goes to $80 or $100, this subsidy grows to $8B 94c/gal and $12.3B 147c/gal. High oil prices threaten to break the national budget, which can compromise the economy in other ways.
So with an abundance of natural gas and sun, EVs would be a natural choice for Egypt. Just to bring EVs upto parity with the subsidies at 60c, 94c and 147c per gallon would imply a per new passenger EV subsidy of $3000, $4700, and $7350 respectively. That's how much an EV driver would be saving the government over the next 10 years.
In reality, higher subsidies could be warranted. Firstly, EVs protect government finances and the general economy against volatility in oil prices. So this easily gets to a $7500 subsidy. Beyond that the economy creates more jobs harnessing domestic natural gas and renewables to generate power for electric vehicles. Additionally, spurring domestic demand for natural gas may be more financially rewarding to gas producers than exporting gas. Trade balance is improved by importing less fuel. Reducing fuel demand will also help keep the price of oil lower. Finally, Egypt can have cleaner air and do it's part to cut GHG emissions.
So altogether, perhaps a $10k subsidy per passenger EV is well supported. Anything below $3k is actually a negative net subsidy against EVs, promoting ICE purchases. Likewise, electric buses and trucks can have a big impact on reducing oil subsidies.
I hope the Egyptian government can figure this out. The country has much to gain by embracing renewables and EVs.
Here is an interesting case in subsiding gasoline and diesel, even as natural gas resources will become a net export.
Egypt consumes about 200M barrels of motor fuel per year. With oil at $67/b, this is subsidized to the tune of $5B or 60c/gal. If oil goes to $80 or $100, this subsidy grows to $8B 94c/gal and $12.3B 147c/gal. High oil prices threaten to break the national budget, which can compromise the economy in other ways.
So with an abundance of natural gas and sun, EVs would be a natural choice for Egypt. Just to bring EVs upto parity with the subsidies at 60c, 94c and 147c per gallon would imply a per new passenger EV subsidy of $3000, $4700, and $7350 respectively. That's how much an EV driver would be saving the government over the next 10 years.
In reality, higher subsidies could be warranted. Firstly, EVs protect government finances and the general economy against volatility in oil prices. So this easily gets to a $7500 subsidy. Beyond that the economy creates more jobs harnessing domestic natural gas and renewables to generate power for electric vehicles. Additionally, spurring domestic demand for natural gas may be more financially rewarding to gas producers than exporting gas. Trade balance is improved by importing less fuel. Reducing fuel demand will also help keep the price of oil lower. Finally, Egypt can have cleaner air and do it's part to cut GHG emissions.
So altogether, perhaps a $10k subsidy per passenger EV is well supported. Anything below $3k is actually a negative net subsidy against EVs, promoting ICE purchases. Likewise, electric buses and trucks can have a big impact on reducing oil subsidies.
I hope the Egyptian government can figure this out. The country has much to gain by embracing renewables and EVs.
Last edited:
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Interesting paper on financing of future renewable energy investment. They argue that there are some fundamental differences (lower risk, lower geopolitical risk, local currency) that make it a safer, lower cost investment.
Energy Transition: The Greatest Switch Capital Markets Have Ever Seen | CleanTechnica
CPI analysis suggests that the transition could have a significant impact on financial markets. Under current industry and investment models, governments and large energy companies would need to increase their annual investment by 20–30%. However, in a more optimal world, we have also found that global investment by both the public and large energy companies could fall 10–30%. Institutional investors, commercial lenders, new types of energy funds, and households will make up the difference. But this require new investment concepts, dedicated and well thought out transition mechanisms, and new energy market designs. The choice is ours to make.
Clean Energy Investment Trust: financial innovation for pension funds & insurers « Energy Finance
Energy Transition: The Greatest Switch Capital Markets Have Ever Seen | CleanTechnica
CPI analysis suggests that the transition could have a significant impact on financial markets. Under current industry and investment models, governments and large energy companies would need to increase their annual investment by 20–30%. However, in a more optimal world, we have also found that global investment by both the public and large energy companies could fall 10–30%. Institutional investors, commercial lenders, new types of energy funds, and households will make up the difference. But this require new investment concepts, dedicated and well thought out transition mechanisms, and new energy market designs. The choice is ours to make.
Clean Energy Investment Trust: financial innovation for pension funds & insurers « Energy Finance
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Australia says "thanks, but no thanks" to fossil fuel power plants:
"Since going online last year, Tesla’s Powerpack farm in South Australia has established a reputation for being a quick, clean, and efficient backup to the region’s beleaguered energy grid. As the big battery continues to prove its critics wrong, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has announced that it would no longer be needing the services of several fossil fuel-powered plants, which supported the grid prior to the arrival of the Tesla Powerpack Farm. "
Tesla's Powerpack battery farm starts killing fossil fuel backup plants in Australia
"Since going online last year, Tesla’s Powerpack farm in South Australia has established a reputation for being a quick, clean, and efficient backup to the region’s beleaguered energy grid. As the big battery continues to prove its critics wrong, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has announced that it would no longer be needing the services of several fossil fuel-powered plants, which supported the grid prior to the arrival of the Tesla Powerpack Farm. "
Tesla's Powerpack battery farm starts killing fossil fuel backup plants in Australia
RobStark
Well-Known Member
" But there are worries that the pledge to put more power into the hands of Petrobras and increase domestic oil production would come into conflict with environmental commitments."
Why would the Mexican President Elect put more power into the hands of Petrobras (Petro Brasil) at the expense of Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos)? LOL
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, I agree. Banks are happy to put money into high risk fracking (and have yet to see a net return) but have to be educated to the idea of putting money into low risk renewables.
Similar threads
