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RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am sure President Clinton would have torched the global economy with $400/b oil over Khashoggi .
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Not clear what your point is here?
Clinton worse than Trump? (Irrelevant)
$400 oil is inevitable if Saudis suffer sanctions? (Unlikely)
Saudis feel invincible? (True)
High price for oil is bad? (Not bad for the environment)
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Interesting project. However, I don't think it's difficult to detect diesel. Noise, smell, toxins in the air. You can hear them and smell them from a long distance.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
mspohr
Well-Known Member
By 2035, the ‘great fuel switch’ will mark the end of the age of oil and gas, analysts expect
"Close to 20 percent of global power needs will be met by solar or wind energy by 2035, marking a shift from the age of oil and gas to the age of renewables, according to a new report from researchers at the consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Energy transitions, similar to the ongoing shift to renewables, are nothing new, Wood Mackenzie researchers write in the report released Wednesday, entitled “Thinking Global Energy Transitions: The What, If, How and When.”
The transition to solar and wind energy will replace the equivalent of about 100 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas demand in the global power sector, the report says. For comparison, demand for natural gas in the United States — the world’s largest consumer of natural gas — averaged about 74 billion cubic per day for all purposes, or about 20 percent of global natural gas consumption, in 2017.
In the transportation sector, as much as 20 percent of all miles traveled globally by cars, trucks, and buses will use electric motors rather than gasoline or diesel. By 2040, oil demand displaced by a switch to electric vehicles will double to almost 6 million barrels per day. For comparison, total global oil consumption in 2017 — for all purposes — averaged about 98 million barrels per day.
Earlier this year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that prices for solar, wind, and battery storage are dropping so rapidly that renewables are increasingly squeezing out all forms of fossil fuel power, including natural gas."
"Close to 20 percent of global power needs will be met by solar or wind energy by 2035, marking a shift from the age of oil and gas to the age of renewables, according to a new report from researchers at the consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Energy transitions, similar to the ongoing shift to renewables, are nothing new, Wood Mackenzie researchers write in the report released Wednesday, entitled “Thinking Global Energy Transitions: The What, If, How and When.”
The transition to solar and wind energy will replace the equivalent of about 100 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas demand in the global power sector, the report says. For comparison, demand for natural gas in the United States — the world’s largest consumer of natural gas — averaged about 74 billion cubic per day for all purposes, or about 20 percent of global natural gas consumption, in 2017.
In the transportation sector, as much as 20 percent of all miles traveled globally by cars, trucks, and buses will use electric motors rather than gasoline or diesel. By 2040, oil demand displaced by a switch to electric vehicles will double to almost 6 million barrels per day. For comparison, total global oil consumption in 2017 — for all purposes — averaged about 98 million barrels per day.
Earlier this year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that prices for solar, wind, and battery storage are dropping so rapidly that renewables are increasingly squeezing out all forms of fossil fuel power, including natural gas."
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In 5 years(2009-2014) Germany went from <1% to 6% or 7% solar as an electricity source.
Once the powerful roadblocks are removed, and battery tech is $100/kWh at the pack level, this transition will happen about twice as fast.
Once the powerful roadblocks are removed, and battery tech is $100/kWh at the pack level, this transition will happen about twice as fast.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I found these photos in a BBC article:
NYC 1900 - All horses
NYC 1913 - No horses
Things can change very rapidly.
Informed consensus is that the Saudis have been exaggerating their oil reserves, can't really pump much more out even if they tried, and need higher prices to avoid busting their budgets or levying taxes.
BNEF's projections are wrong in this case. The Indian new coal projects are all dead due to lack of financing and inability to turn a profit, although they're still officially in the pipeline. The old coal plants are already starting to close. The Chinese coal projects... are more complicated, and there's a mess related to kickbacks which provincial governors can get from them, but the national government is trying to shutter them.
Demand!
Lack thereof. Adoption of EVs. We were predicting 2023 as the big crossover point when demand would be dropping faster than supply.... but maybe markets have anticipateD?Yeah?
This is hilarious. Anyone who can track an exponential curve knows that i'll be about 10 years before that.
The key is to focus on the useful data they provide, because last August there was this:
Coal to dominate US electricity market over next two years
EIA's Eight Ball in 2017 via Washington Examiner said:
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA's Eight Ball in October 2018 said:
Electric Power Monthly - U.S. Energy Information Administration
EIA's real data said:
The sad reality is that most traditional energy analysts have no idea what exponential grow is. They only have experience with linear growth and government policy effects. So sad.
That was with large subsidies, which have gradually been shrinking.
Solar installations in Germany have dropped significantly. The bright spot is that with the reduction in feed-in tariffs and falling battery costs, more than half of new solar installations include storage.
We're in a transitional period where subsidies are being removed. Cheap storage can help a lot, but you still need the electricity source to be fundamentally cost competitive with conventional generation, otherwise conventional generation will be the source of the stored electricity. Part of the reason for cutting gas turbine production, is that even if renewable prices stop falling, CCGT + cheap storage would still eat away at the peaker market.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I would argue that once Germany's FiT went below EUR0.14 they weren't really paying a subsidy. Try sourcing peak supply in a theoretically renewables-free Germany for less than that. The first half of the program was a massive subsidy, but the only real incremental cost now is paying on those old contracts. Anyone signing up for FiT in Germany today for maybe EUR0.103/kWh pushed to the grid could be more realistically described as subsidizing non-solar homes. After all, retail is like EUR0.28/kWh.
German utilities aren't the overlords they are here, fairly sure they've all gone through some form of bankruptcy around 2013 when solar hit 5% of total supply and re-emerged as grid services companies within the last two. In that kind of environment rational German consumers don't need to scramble around looking for salvation from batteries, the grid works for them right now.
However, once something like a Powerwall hits EUR3k retail, they'll be in every German home. Because why wouldn't you?
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Saudi Arabia has the most to lose from a sharp rise in oil prices
Saudi Arabia has the most to lose from a sharp rise in oil prices | Larry Elliott
The biggest beneficiaries of Saudi output curbs today would be solar and wind producers. The unit cost of renewables has already fallen sharply as a result of technological advances, and each ratcheting up of oil prices will make solar and wind more competitive.
If the west has become less oil-dependent, the opposite is true for Saudi Arabia, which, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, needs oil prices of $85-87 a barrel to balance its budget.
Saudi Arabia has the most to lose from a sharp rise in oil prices | Larry Elliott
The biggest beneficiaries of Saudi output curbs today would be solar and wind producers. The unit cost of renewables has already fallen sharply as a result of technological advances, and each ratcheting up of oil prices will make solar and wind more competitive.
If the west has become less oil-dependent, the opposite is true for Saudi Arabia, which, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, needs oil prices of $85-87 a barrel to balance its budget.
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