neroden
Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Okay, i understood your post as 50% EV market share. If you include Plug ins, the goal becomes a lot more realistic, but i still believe it will be a success if it reaches half of that. But thats something only time will tell.
In the context of *oil usage*, serious plugin hybrids (as opposed to jokes like the Prius Plugin with its 10 mile electric range) have the same effect as EVs. It's documented that some ridiculously high percentage of miles driven in the Volt are electric, with people just using gas for occasional road trips.
Even the ones with 10 mile range are going to eat massively into gasoline usage since people do make a lot of short trips. But the market is already driving them out in favor of ones which can do most of their driving on electricity.
That's a possibility. I don't pretend to be good at the supply modeling. The demand crash in 2023 or thereabouts will almost certainly exceed supply shrinkage, however, since demand will be dropping faster than the natural decline rate of most oil fields. Unless the shale bubble collapses even faster than I'm currently expecting it to; this could have a constricting effect on supply because shale has a super-high decline rate.I dont see supply growing at all. Therefore it wont need much demand growth to create a serious deficit, sending oil prices even higher than they are now.
You might be able to make money by going long on oil futures for the period prior to 2023. I am no short-term trader. For some time, my modeling has said that there may be One Last Oil Price Spike before the final decline... or there may not be and we may be in the final price decline already. I wouldn't bet one way or the other, though it's looking like One Last Price Spike right now.Great times if you have invested in Oil!
However, investing in oil *companies* is now a guaranteed way to lose your shirt. The stock market is often forward-looking, and will devalue oil companies well before they actually start going bankrupt. There's a reason there are no new projects: they can't be done profitably. With peak demand coming up, the lowest-cost producers will survive; those are all National Oil Companies, and the stock-market-listed oil companies will all be unable to compete. Even the National Oil Companies are going to face a dire situation where they cannot really compete on price with electricity, and are only serving the dying market of people who haven't gotten an EV yet because they're too far back on the waiting list.