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Yeah, I expect over production too. But the effect of that will be to drive NG down to unsustainably low prices for a year or two at a shot. In that time frame, it simply displaces some extra coal while renewable march on. So I see this as short-term emissions relief with no critical slowing of renewables. It's just not sustainable enough to motivate some revival in building out NG plants.
What's driving this? Seems strange given that Trump wants to take a wiz on free trade.
WTI was cheaper due to difficulty getting oil out of the US to Europe. There are three possibilities: (1) the supply chain for exporting oil from the US has improved, (2) the economic mess created by Trump is expected to reduce oil demand in Europe, or (3) someone else who used to push oil to the US is pushing a lot of oil to Europe. I'd bet on #3, but it could be any of them.
Goldman Blames Canada For WTI Price Spike | OilPrice.com
Blame Canada, or blame Goldman blaming Canada.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I expect the spread to increase throughout the summer, as takeaway capacity limitations will not be sufficiently addressed until 2H19, but Brent crude oil is the price to watch for TSLA analysis purposes: Brent is what affects U.S. gasoline prices, which I expect to continue to increase.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
WTI-Brent Spread Narrows On Canada Oil Crisis | OilPrice.com
More description of what is driving the Brent-WTI spread.
More description of what is driving the Brent-WTI spread.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Gasoline prices continue to push higher, and make no mistake: this is only the second inning of a major global energy crisis. The primary determinant of what percent TSLA drops in the fast-approaching recession, preceded by the accelerating energy crisis, will be the magnitude of cash inflow from higher reservations/orders as energy prices surge. If the cash inflow at $4/gallon national avg and $5/gallon California is in the order of billions of dollars across all products, then I would expect TSLA to sail through the next recession without a major hit. This will depend on how Tesla positions itself as a safe heaven against surging energy prices.
ValueAnalyst on Twitter
Bottom of third; entering fourth inning in July.
Electricity from concrete? Australian company claims breakthrough
This is pretty cool adding graphite to concrete to make it conduct electricity. Powering EVs en route is the headline application, but I think the potential to heat concrete is really more important. In the "electrify everything" world, we definitely benefit from cheaper ways to heat with electricity. I would imagine that hearing a slab floor would have a lot of heat inertia (if that is even the right word for it). The idea is that a slab can absorb surplus power throughout the day and night while maintaining a stable floor temperature. So this is a form of energy storage.
This is pretty cool adding graphite to concrete to make it conduct electricity. Powering EVs en route is the headline application, but I think the potential to heat concrete is really more important. In the "electrify everything" world, we definitely benefit from cheaper ways to heat with electricity. I would imagine that hearing a slab floor would have a lot of heat inertia (if that is even the right word for it). The idea is that a slab can absorb surplus power throughout the day and night while maintaining a stable floor temperature. So this is a form of energy storage.
The Quest to Find a Trillion-Dollar Nuclear Fuel on the Moon
Maybe this would be of interest to Musk. $5000/g for helium-3.
Maybe this would be of interest to Musk. $5000/g for helium-3.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
US commercial crude stockpiles keep plummeting, supplies must be low!
....unless you consider Canada dropping deliveries the last two weeks by a good 3-4Mb/d in response to the trade war
....and weekly Saudi imports totaled a minuscule 645kb/d
....and the State Dept banning imports from Iran
....and that stockpiles are STILL higher than at any point prior to 2015
It's almost as if OPEC+R(and by proxy our executive branch) are conspiring to artificially inflate oil prices as peak demand approaches.
....unless you consider Canada dropping deliveries the last two weeks by a good 3-4Mb/d in response to the trade war
....and weekly Saudi imports totaled a minuscule 645kb/d
....and the State Dept banning imports from Iran
....and that stockpiles are STILL higher than at any point prior to 2015
It's almost as if OPEC+R(and by proxy our executive branch) are conspiring to artificially inflate oil prices as peak demand approaches.
Yup. WTI has been climbing rapidly, and Brent is getting to $78. Brent seems poised to break above $80.
I have no dino in this fight, but as a Tesla owner I pretty excited to hear people talk about EVs for relief at the pump.
59,400 TWh – The New Language of World Energy – dollarsperbbl
This is a nice blog. A view quite similar to mine.
This is a nice blog. A view quite similar to mine.
Analysis similar to mine, too. Good work. Reminds me of the 14-page citationed paper I wrote explaing the investment urgency of divesting from fossil fuels.
The thing which still makes me shake my head is that there are "investors" who don't divest even after reading all of this.
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I notice he uses yet *another* model to derive peak gasoline demand and comes out with 2024-2025. This is something like the fourth model I've looked at which gives a 2023-2025 result for peak oil. I'm starting to be *very* confident.
...and he uses *another* model and gets peak oil in 2021-2022.
The One Equation that Describes the EV Revolution – that No-one Uses – dollarsperbbl
I think 2023 is a safe central estimate for peak oil demand; could be anywhere from 2021 to 2025.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's a good 2-4 years before the 50% global EV marketshare timeline. You think shrinking diesel, overall efficiency and China's domestic policy can move the market that quickly?
In my mind 2023 is more similar to what 2014/15 was for coal. Demand hadn't peaked, but reality had set in and investors flee like mad. If that happens with oil, the global economic crash to follow does the rest. Certainly the oil and gas world is leveraged far beyond coal.
I'd really like to see this thread move toward analyzing how leveraged the global fossil world is and how that will impact the oil endgame. In the US all utilities are basically piles of debt and most fossil operations seem like they're leveraged enough to bring about a massive crash beyond what we saw with housing derivatives.
We've nearly gotten to the point where shorting this can be timed with existing traditional market products, no? How do we not have a TMC Peak Oil ETF yet?
Hey, I use logistic models too. Actually peak oil will happen early enough in the logistic curve that there is little different between that and an exponential model. What matters is how you estimate the growth parameters. I don't follow how he is estimating his parameters, but that's the big difference.
In any cas it is very good to see different people work out different models with different assumptions and methods and see that they derive similar results.
So in my exponential models I would get to peak oil around 2025. This is pretty much what I get with different logistic models. Modeling gasoline and diesel separately leads to diesel peak 2021, gas 2026, and crude 2025. All of these approaches are looking exclusively at the impact of EVs alone, and so may overstate the time to peak by several years.
Several years ago I was modeling wind and solar displacement of natural gas and coal and concluded this would lead to a peak in fossil fuels by about 2022. Recently I've developed a more sophisticated model of all energy sources as shares of primary energy consumption. This data is several year fresher, and it still leads to peak fossil fuels by 2022. I like this sort of stability. But this new model derives a peak for oil the next year 2023. I particularly like how this radically distinct approach that ignores EVs leads to an oil peak several years earlier. So growth in solar and wind is at least supportive factor for disrupting oil even if EVs are still a bottleneck for the transition. So in a way wind and solar are giving a boost to EVs. Cheap, clean electricity certainly does make EVs more attractive. Consider Tesla offering 7c/kWh to support the Semi. This is actually a large part of the 25c/mi savings that Tesla is pitching. But renewables have other ways to displace oil than via EVs. So a model that has exposure to all those pathways has a fair chance of seeing just how quickly disruption can happen.
So in my own exploration, I get fairly consistent results. The challenge for anyone who would argue a longer timeframe is to explain what exactly would start to slow recent historic trends. It's easy just to assume slower growth rates, but it is much harder to justify why rates would suddenly slow down. When we are talking about a whole slew of peak events from 2021 to 2026, rates have to slow down very quickly to push peaks off just a few years. Even if the peak of one fuel is delayed, this would only put greater pressure on other fuels to lose share faster. In a couple years, this will be inescapable. The early 2020s will all fossils halt one fuel after another. All the wheels will fall off.
Coal peaked in 2013 and declined in following years. The import of the 2013 peak was only understood in subsequent years. This could be an important consideration for shorts. You might not want to short ahead of the peak
But if you can see the peak while others are in ignorance or denial, that could be quite an edge.
Carbon Bubble might have some go analysis financial and economic ramifications. My impression, though, is that they are working with a longer horizon to various peaks. It seems that if peaks come quickly, this could intensify the economic damage.
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