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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
SummerlinChiro
Member
His concepts are timeless, and will never go out of date
"For the last decade various research firms have postured that EV batteries need to see prices decline to $100 per kilowatt hour in order to achieve parity with gas cars. In July the average weighted price of a kilowatt hour worth of battery dropped below that for the first time in two years. In spite of significant monetary inflation, prices are still dropping, and soon the price of an electric car drivetrain will be less or equal to a gasoline vehicle to produce.
The biggest single factor in this price cut has been passed on from the value of the raw materials. Lithium prices have halved since the beginning of 2023, cobalt prices have reached their lowest in history, and battery metals like nickel are down 25 percent so far this year."
EVs Might Not Cost A Butt Load Soon
As human population grows, commodity prices will continue to go down, and we will never "run out" of any natural resource.
I still think that 32million EVs is enough to displace 1 mbpd of gasoline. 20m would displace about 625 kbpd.
BNEF assumes 50m to displace 1 mbpd. I think this is biased, since the total fleet of autos in service consume at this rate. I believe newer vehicles get driven more than older ones. So the fleet average is conservative. Thus 20m displaces at least 400 kbpd.
The difference between these estimates is about 50%, just one year of growth. Thus, either estimate should get you within about one year of the peak!
I think this may depend on where you get your data. I've been looking at OPEC Monthly Report data recent, cuz it's convenient. It shows a later peak.
I'm not at all saying this is the best data. Indeed OPEC has a clear bias to want to convince the world of endless demand growth!
@petit_bateau you posted as useful chart on EV fleet percentage in another thread, please post it here.
2 additional factors which string to mind.
1. Brian (NextBigFuture) suggested the Gen3 Robotaxi may be able to use a smaller and hence cheaper diameter funnel. A Boring tunnels system could be a mixture of full size tunnels and smaller Robotaxi tunnels. Robotaxis and tunnels make a difference in dense urban environments, that is significant when considering the point below.
2. My wife's old ICE is 12 years old a young guy wants to buy it, but repairing the car to a standard suitable for sale is a marginal economic proposition. There is a 50/50 chance it ends up in the scrap yard. I have a sneaking suspicion that the carmaker who made that car didn't make it as well as they made the car of same brand I owned earlier. When all new car sales are EVs many are assuming that each old ICE will life out it's natural life, For starters, all ICE cars driving around will increasingly be seen as "old cars", but repair is going to get increasingly more difficult and more expensive. For city dwellers the alternative to driving around an old ICE is, use a Robotaxi and perhaps travel in a Boring tunnel.
2 additional factors which string to mind.
1. Brian (NextBigFuture) suggested the Gen3 Robotaxi may be able to use a smaller and hence cheaper diameter funnel. A Boring tunnels system could be a mixture of full size tunnels and smaller Robotaxi tunnels. Robotaxis and tunnels make a difference in dense urban environments, that is significant when considering the point below.
2. My wife's old ICE is 12 years old a young guy wants to buy it, but repairing the car to a standard suitable for sale is a marginal economic proposition. There is a 50/50 chance it ends up in the scrap yard. I have a sneaking suspicion that the carmaker who made that car didn't make it as well as they made the car of same brand I owned earlier. When all new car sales are EVs many are assuming that each old ICE will life out it's natural life, For starters, all ICE cars driving around will increasingly be seen as "old cars", but repair is going to get increasingly more difficult and more expensive. For city dwellers the alternative to driving around an old ICE is, use a Robotaxi and perhaps travel in a Boring tunnel.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Ice cars will be retired early because they will be too expensive to fuel and repair compared to EVs.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
They will migrate to low annual mileage users. WFH, retirees, third cars, etc.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I think this is the chart you were interested in which I posted in relation to discussion on oil price / BEV / Ukraine. Some moderator removed it. The y axis could as easily read 0-50 mbpd. I had posted other comments, caveats, and explanation which were also deleted.
I will not be posting further until I have cleared up some recent moderator behaviour to my satisfaction.
Is was disappointed that your post was deleted. I feel bad that i probably contributed to that.
IMO the rate of EV adoption, the impact on the oil supply /demand balance and the resulting oil prices has a lot of geopolitical implications. It is an important topic relevant to many threads, but this is perhaps the best thread to discuss it in.
I hope you keep posting because you are an important contributor here, one of the better posters especially considering of the amount of statistics and research that backs your posts.
I was surprised to find that on TMC many posters are pessimistic about the rate of EV adoption and the resulting impact on the oil price. I was even more surprised to find that the impact of the Cybertruck Semi and Supercharger expansion was being downplayed.
I expect the general public to be uninformed in these areas, but not posters on TMC. In future, I'll need to pick and choose when and where I question shallow assumptions, keeping in mind the primary topic of the thread.
IMO intelligent, informative, respectful, non-emotive and non-pollical debate should be the aim, If a minor thread wanders slightly OT in an informative way, I don't see that as a bad outcome., It takes discipline to keep shifting the debate to the right thread, I'll try to lift my game.
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mspohr
Well-Known Member
EVs are cutting the world demand for oil, but not in the way you may think
The same rainstorm that earlier drowned a third of all the agricultural land and cost lives in Greece has brought incredible destruction to Libya , where at least 2,000 are thought to be dead. It’...
www.dailykos.com
But there are intriguing notes of change. One of those can be found in a report on electric vehicles recently published by Bloomberg. That report looks at both how EVs are moving into all areas of transportation, and what trends predict for the near future. Perhaps most intriguingly, it shows how EVs are already cutting demand for gas and diesel by about 3%, but the biggest impact comes from a factor many might not expect.
But around the world, electric scooters are becoming hugely popular. Again, it’s largely Asia leading the way: Electric scooters and motorcycles are replacing the gas models that had been ubiquitous in the crowded cities of China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and elsewhere. More than 90% of world sales of two-wheelers take place in Asia.
Altogether, electric two- and three-wheeled vehicles displaced just under 1 million barrels of oil a day in 2023, according to Bloomberg’s report. And that number is growing more rapidly than any other segment of EVs. For many, an electric scooter isn’t just an alternative to a bike or motorcycle, it can replace a far more expensive—and far more polluting—traditional car.
OPEC is going into a death spiral – because of China
According to the article, emerging consensus is that China is on track to hit 60% ev market share around 2025.
According to the article, emerging consensus is that China is on track to hit 60% ev market share around 2025.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
17m in 2025 is roughly double from this year. China NEVs grew much faster than that the past few years, but decelerated markedly this year. It comes down to what Xi decides. The article gives the wrong impression about subsidies. One was dropped this year, but others were extended and the NEV/CAFC dual credit quotas keep increasing.
"That 2m b/d figure happens to be more or less the amount of crude currently being displaced by EV sales worldwide"
Sounds wrong. The average EV displaces roughly 10 bbl of gasoline per year, so you need 36.5 EVs to displace 1 bpd. Their 2m bpd claim implies 73 million EVs in the fleet today. We're actually about half that.
They also seem to over-estimate the near term effect of EV sales on oil consumption. Norway hit 60% EV sales in late 2019, four years ago, and their oil consumption has barely declined. Their car fleet is burning less, but air, freight, etc. consumption has grown. And China's ICE fleet is still growing even as NEVs take an ever-bigger slice of new car sales.
This is also the first I've heard of India selling 1m EVs per year. Does that include scooters?
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's the scooters.
EVs are cutting the world demand for oil, but not in the way you may think
The same rainstorm that earlier drowned a third of all the agricultural land and cost lives in Greece has brought incredible destruction to Libya , where at least 2,000 are thought to be dead. It’...
www.dailykos.com
The implications of close to 100% of the vehicle fleet worldwide being EVs by 2050 are not well understood.
If 200 Million EVs in the US each have a 50 kWh battery that is 10,000 GWh of battery storage.
When these 200 Million EVs charge has a big impact of the grid supply / demand balance.
If a significant portion of the EVs support V2G that impacts on the amount of grid storage that we need.
The additional advantages of EVs are going to become increasingly apparent:-
- Assist with the grid supply/demand balance.
- Assist with grid/household resilience.
- Cheaper to run than ICE and longer lasting.
- Many parts including the battery are recyclable.
By 2035 at the latest we should have price parity with new ICE and sufficient production volumes to be close to 100% of sales.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Trends in electric light-duty vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis - IEA
Global EV Outlook 2023 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
www.iea.org
Good stuff here. More recently, IEA is antipathy that over the next 7 years the EV fleet will grow 10X. This is nearly a 40% annual growth rate, UNDER CURRENT POLICIES. So I think the EAI finally has a fair appreciation for EV growth rates.
Finally, these charts!
I'd also would point out that if EV sales grow 10X over 7 years from 2022 (roughly consistent with growth in the fleet), then we hit 100M EVs sold in 2029. This could be 80% to 100% of the total light auto market. Moreover, just one more year of near 40% growth would be close to 140M EVs in 2030. I think this pretty much kill off the ICE market entirely (a trivial niche at best).
Alternatively, if EVs follow more of a logistic growth curve, we could see ICE continue to hold 10% market share in 2030. This is more consistent with how I've modeled it over the years, as opposed to the exponential model implied in the above paragraph.
In any case, ICE makers go from roughly a 80M vehicle market in the early 2020s to a 0 to 20M market by the end of the decade. This is a serious crisis brewing. The recent uptick in ICE sales only lulls ICE makers into complacency and false comfort.
great stuff jhm! Nice to see you back in this thread...always love when you post.Trends in electric light-duty vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis - IEA
Global EV Outlook 2023 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
Good stuff here. More recently, IEA is antipathy that over the next 7 years the EV fleet will grow 10X. This is nearly a 40% annual growth rate, UNDER CURRENT POLICIES. So I think the EAI finally has a fair appreciation for EV growth rates.
Finally, these charts!
View attachment 985843
View attachment 985842
I'd also would point out that if EV sales grow 10X over 7 years from 2022 (roughly consistent with growth in the fleet), then we hit 100M EVs sold in 2029. This could be 80% to 100% of the total light auto market. Moreover, just one more year of near 40% growth would be close to 140M EVs in 2030. I think this pretty much kill off the ICE market entirely (a trivial niche at best).
Alternatively, if EVs follow more of a logistic growth curve, we could see ICE continue to hold 10% market share in 2030. This is more consistent with how I've modeled it over the years, as opposed to the exponential model implied in the above paragraph.
In any case, ICE makers go from roughly a 80M vehicle market in the early 2020s to a 0 to 20M market by the end of the decade. This is a serious crisis brewing. The recent uptick in ICE sales only lulls ICE makers into complacency and false comfort.
Thanks. My studies have been keeping me quite busy. But every now and then I poke and try to keep current on TMC.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
All of the actual adoption curves by country or region follow the "S" curve postulated by Tony Seba (and others) to arrive at the estimate of 100 m vehicles by 2030. I don't think it is overoptimistic to think this trend won't continue.
ICE will be in serious trouble in just a few short years.
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