bigbear
Member
Don't forget to check the countdown thread to make sure you're ready to put that deposit down on time.
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Don't forget to check the countdown thread to make sure you're ready to put that deposit down on time.
While I really hope that you are right (my budget is 50-55k CAD max depending on if the 5k tax credit is still available), I dont think Tesla will start selling the 35k USD version right off the bat. Elon did say 35k car needs a 'fully operational' Giga Factory.
I am not quite clear what he exactly meant by 'fully operational' Did he mean it in a sense that the factory is operational to actually start churning out batteries? or did he mean the year 2020 when the factory will be fully operational? (they do have plans to expand even more, but he could have meant 'fully operational' as in the original plan.)
It will disappoint a lot of people if 35k USD car doesnt start to sell until 2020.. but this is not at all impossible given the way they are selling the Model X..
I really hope I am wrong and they start selling cheaper version of the Model 3 waaayy before 2020. :smile:
MiamiNole
Member
I'm pretty sure he meant that the Giga Factory needs to be operating at a high enough efficiency in order to get the cost of manufacturing the batteries low enough to be able to sell the Model 3 at 35k. The Giga Factory is one of the primary means of lowering the production costs of the Model 3. Not having a fully operational Giga Factory doesn't necessarily mean that the 35k "version" can't start selling right off the bat. More so, it would mean that the base Model 3 would not be able to be sold at that price. In reality, the Giga Factory affects the production costs of ALL Model 3s. As many people here have said before, though, I doubt that Tesla would launch the Model 3 without being able to sell it beginning at the advertised 35k price.
If the Gigafactory is producing cells, that should reduce or eliminate the Canadian import tax due to the reduced amount of "imported" non-US parts in the current S and X (batteries from Japan).
ImEric
Member
Only speculation, of course, but i believe that "fully operational" does not mean "operating at full capacity." I believe he means taking raw materials, outputting fully functional battery packs for all Tesla Model lines. After all, it's not like the Giga Factory is just for the Model 3. The Gigafactory will be functional next year for the Model S, Model X and Tesla Energy product lines. That will give Tesla time to iron out any wrinkles that arise. And as capacity ramps up there, it will allow the model 3 production to begin about a year later, hopefully at the stated 35k price. Honestly, I fully expect that the P/D or Q version, or whatever the highest-margin version will be to be delivered first, which seems to be Tesla's M.O. But I hope that they at least open up the design studio for everyone to order the base 35k (maybe still 25k with incentives
version of the car as soon as it's released in late 2017.- - - Updated - - -
Probably the Model 3, if he's already willing to put down a deposit AND make a proposal, it's probably a pretty stable relationship that could keep going as is for a while.
Honestly, it depends on what the Model 3 looks like. While we were at McKenna BMW recently, she sat in an i3. And though she thinks it's ugly from the outside, she loved the interior enough to buy one. I told her that an 80mi range was unacceptable, though. So at least for now, the plan is 3 series to model 3, but it all depends on the stylings/options/bells/whistles of the model 3. She could be more excited than she will be about a wedding, or she could decide on the 2018 version of the i3 with a shrug... (over my dead body).
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I hope that drops the price of Model 3 by a bit.. hopefully starting around 40k CAD.. then I would be able to get a bigger battery and dual motors.:smile:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Mad Hungarian
Member
Interestingly if we use the current pricing for MS in both countries as a guide it yields a much more favorable 1.238 exchange, putting the base M3 at $43.3K.
In fact any time I've run this check in the last year it's been a somewhat similar result when compared to the actual exchange rate. Not sure if this is just "lag" as our dollar slowly erodes, but at some point I'd have thought it would catch up. Has Tesla historically kept the difference artificially low when the exchange is unfavorable to us? Maybe veteran Canuck members here can shed light...
Would they depend the pricing of their cars solely on the exchange rate?
I don't know what others do to estimate the price of Model 3, but I go to other car companies site and compare the pricing in USD and CAD..
Ford Mustang GT Fastback is almost 35k USD and it is 43k CAD.
Maybe in the coming years the exchange rate will get better for us Canadians and the price of Model 3 might drop by 1k or so :smile:
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
There was talk about this before for the European prices. Basically Tesla does lag the prices and tries not to adjust it too much simply due to currency fluctuation and they basically just eat the cost if it heads the wrong direction. There was talk about hedging, but I don't believe Tesla buys currency futures to account for this.
Hi,
I have a question regarding Model 3 reservations.
Since the spectation for this model is that high, there could be a large amount of reservations.
Just guessing, if there is a $10,000 fee per reservation and there are 100,000 reservations Tesla could collect $1 Billion. I am not sure these numbers really make sense.
Is there any restricition in using the money coming from reservations to build the model 3 production line? And, if there is any restriction, what could they use that money for?
That $1 Billion could help Tesla to accelerate the process and to reduce the necessity of capital raises.
I have a question regarding Model 3 reservations.
Since the spectation for this model is that high, there could be a large amount of reservations.
Just guessing, if there is a $10,000 fee per reservation and there are 100,000 reservations Tesla could collect $1 Billion. I am not sure these numbers really make sense.
Is there any restricition in using the money coming from reservations to build the model 3 production line? And, if there is any restriction, what could they use that money for?
That $1 Billion could help Tesla to accelerate the process and to reduce the necessity of capital raises.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I don't think most reservations will be $10k. The Model X basic reservation is $5000, Model S is $2500, Model 3 might be even lower. The one for a Signature Model X is $40000 (roughly 1/3 the cost of the vehicle) but that is only ~2500 vehicles. While the Model 3 will likely have more Signatures, I doubt there will be anywhere near 100k Signature Model 3 and the price probably will be lower.
Unless in a jurisdiction where escrow is required, Tesla can use the money from the reservations on the production line.
Welcome to the forums Jurogo.
I completely agree with stopcrazypp.
I'm guessing, but It wouldn't surprise me if a reservation for a General Production Model 3 was $1,000 - $1,500.
A reservation for a Signature Model 3 could reasonably be in the $15,000 - $20,000 range.
If Tesla wants to truly break into the mass market and sell hundreds of thousands of cars per year, the reservation for their entry level Model S can't be $10,000.
Larry
Thank you for the insightful information.
Based on the model S and model X information, something like the following could be a more realistic estimation:
-5,000 Signatures at $10,0000
-50,000 - 100,000 reservation at $1,000 - $1,500
The thing is if Model 3 is as good as it is supposed to be, reservations could go trough the roof, and it is interesting how Tesla could handle the high demand.
In the model X, for instance Tesla has priorizated the top battery options with higher margins. In the model 3 it is also important to fulfill the goal of being an afforable car, and if they priorizate the high margin versions it could generate bad press, because of being the most expensive ones.
I know this is from a little while ago, but I think this is totally wrong. I believe the main selling point has been and will continue to be the quietness, the space, the huge center console, the low running costs and limited maintenance, etc. Basically, the fact that it's an electric car, and a Tesla at that. I believe the 200 mile range is not really a selling point for the III. I believe that most people who will get a III will have just been looking a good car in their price range, and the vast majority of $35,000 cars have ranges over 200 miles AND can fill up at any gas pump. For this market, the 200 mile range will merely not be a significant drawback. Also, I doubt the price of the car will be much of a selling point; that is, I doubt there will be too many people looking for a $50-70k car but end up getting a Model 3 because it has everything they need but the price is so much less.
now if they would say that Model 3 would contain the hardware to be capable of full autonomous driving that would definitely crush the reservation servers and would be the most important selling point for this car.
However I would expect they would introduce the full autonomous driving hardware on X and S first to get demand up on those higher margin cars.
If Model 3 would be full autonomy capable Uber people will write a bot that will make 300K reservations off the bat :smile:
However I would expect they would introduce the full autonomous driving hardware on X and S first to get demand up on those higher margin cars.
If Model 3 would be full autonomy capable Uber people will write a bot that will make 300K reservations off the bat :smile:
Ya, I don't think that will be happening in the next 5 years. The biggest hurdle to autonomy is likely legislation and it will probably take a company like google, Toyota or apple which have billions to burn to push for the legal changes.
